Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips: Back Luiz to hit the target in 20/1 Bet Builder
Posted: 15:15 Friday 26th April 2024
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Aston Villa are seeking to do the league double over Chelsea for the first time since 1989-90 when they take on the West London side at Villa Park on Saturday. The game can be seen live on TNT Sports kicking off at 8pm and we’ve got two tips for the occasion priced at 23/20 and 20/1.
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It is now all but confirmed that England will not be credited an extra Champions League spot for the fifth placed finishers in the Premier League season, meaning Aston Villa are looking to secure fourth in order to qualify for Europe’s most prestigious club competition. Unai Emery has enjoyed a memorable season in B6 and his side currently sit six points ahead of Spurs in fifth, however the Lilywhites have two games in hand.
Chelsea’s season on the other hand has not gone to plan. Despite a couple of good runs in the FA and League Cup, the Blues have struggled for consistency in the league and sit ninth in the standings. Cole Palmer has been the standout performer for Maurcio Pochettino’s men this term but his place in the starting XI on Saturday remains in doubt after illness.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea Tips
Aston Villa to Win
For our main bet of the evening we are backing the hosts to continue their strong form at home under their Spanish boss and to win the game priced at 23/20. We actually think this price looks a little too big considering how well Emery's men have performed at Villa Park, winning 12 of their 17 home league matches in 2023/24.
Chelsea have had a rough week or so after defeat to Manchester City in the FA Cup final last Saturday. They then put in a shocking showing at Arsenal on Tuesday when being hammered in a London derby. Chelsea have lost seven of nine trips to the top-11 in the league this season and have only kept two clean sheets since December.
Watkins to Score, Luiz 1+ Shot on Target & Cucurella to be Carded
We’ve also put together a three-pronged Bet Builder that weighs in at 20/1. The first leg comes in the form of Ollie Watkins to score. The Villa bagsman has more goal contributions than any other player in the league this season and is just one goal behind Erling Haaland and Cole Palmer in the top scorer charts having netted 19 goals. Watkins has scored in his last two matches against Chelsea and can do so again here after a long week for the Blues.
Next up we are backing Douglas Luiz to record Over 0.5 shots on target. The Brazilian has already eclipsed his goal tally of six last season having scored nine this time round in the league. Bet365 have the midfielder priced at 8/5 to be carded on Saturday compared to 2/1 for just one shot on target. We feel that shot price is way too big and should be more around the even money region, which is the approach most other firms have taken. Looking at his shooting data, 13 of his 17 shots on target have been in matches at Villa Park (76%) and with his side looking to take a step closer to securing fourth, we like the look of him in the shots market here.
Rounding off the trio of selections is Marc Cucurella to be carded. Somewhat of a loose cannon at times, the former Brighton defender should be in for a long afternoon against the speed and trickery of Leon Bailey. The key stat here is that the Spaniard has been booked in a remarkable 57% of his league matches this season. That may be only a sample of 14 matches but at the prices he’s worth taking a chance on. Combining Watkins to score, Luiz to have a shot on target and Cucurella to be carded pays 20/1.
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