Alfred Dunhill Links Betting Tips: Molinari can go well in Scotland

Last week’s Open de France certainly didn’t lack for drama. Rasmus Hojgaard was in scintillating form over the first two days, shooting a combined -15 to head into the weekend with a six-shot lead; only to then let everyone back into the tournament right at the start of his third round, as he proceeded to find the water three times on the par 3 2nd hole, eventually rolling in a 14 footer for a quintuple-bogey 8.

Such is the quality and character of the young Dane that he composed himself for the rest of the round, shooting -2 from there to take an albeit much slimmed down one-shot lead into the final round.

In that final round he did little wrong, shooting -3 to beat his nearest challengers by four-shots. Unfortunately for him, this wasn’t to be enough as exciting Italian, Guido Migliozzi posted a phenomenal closing 62, equalling what Hojgaard did in round one, in which he birdied 9 of his final 13 holes of the tournament to beat his fellow Ryder Cup contender by one-shot.

Much like Robert MacIntyre’s win the week previous in Italy, it was a fantastic spectacle which gave us a glimpse of what some of Europe’s brightest talents have to offer heading into the Ryder Cup next year; an event Migliozzi will certainly hope to be a part of at home in Italy.

Onto this week and Ryder Cup stars present and potentially future are out in force at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship. A tournament which sees the pros mingle with famous faces from the wider sporting world, as well as entertainment, business and even family, in the heavily featured pro-am element of the tournament.

Established in 2001, it sees pros and amateurs alike, compete on some of the most iconic links courses on the East Coast of Scotland: the Old Course at St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns, with each player rotating around the three courses over the opening three days of the event; after which a cut is made and those who survive head back for one more spin around St Andrews in the final round.

The combination of the difficulty in these courses being heavily dependent on the weather and the fact that with the pro-am element, the courses won’t be setup to play overly difficult means scoring here is typically low.

Of the past 19 editions, 8 have been won with a score of -20 or lower, with Tyrrell Hatton’s -24 in 2017 the record score in the event. That was Hatton’s second win in the Dunhill Links, as he went back-to-back following victory in 2016; joining Padraig Harrington in being the only player to have won this event twice. 

Our defending champion is 2016 Masters winners, Danny Willett, who denied Tyrrell Hatton a hat-trick of titles here last year, with Sweden’s Joakim Lagergren, who possesses almost as impressive a record here as Hatton, tying the Englishman in 2nd place.

The Courses

Old Course at St Andrews – 7318 yard par 72

The Old Course at St Andrews “The Home of Golf” is arguably the most iconic place in the sport and certainly one of the oldest. Established in the 1500s, the original designer of this course is Mother Nature herself; though she had some help from Allan Robertson and Old Tom Morris, who both renovated the course in some way in the 1800s.

What we have here is a true links test, with firm, wide and undulating fairways; huge, sloping double greens and devilish pot bunkers waiting to swallow up errant shots.

As we saw at this year’s Open Championship, in which Cameron Smith took home the title with a score of -20, even in tough championships conditions, the type of conditions we won’t find this week; it is a course you can get at, with the shortage of par 5s combatted by numerous potentially drivable, at least attackable par 4s. 

Carnoustie Golf Links – 7394 par 72

Much like St Andrews there are records which show golf being played in these parts as far back as the 1500s. Though the course as we know it was set in motion by Allan Robertson in 1842; which was then extended in by Old Tom Morris in 1857; with James Braid making further changes in the 1920s. 

Not taking into account the way weather can impact these courses, Carnoustie is certainly the most difficult of the three venues. Fairways are full of danger, with burns snaking throughout, huge cavernous bunkers, of which there are over 110 around the course and out-of-bounds areas hugging some of the holes. Whilst it also places a premium on finding greens, as on and around the greens they’re some of the firmest, trickiest around. 

There are enough scoring opportunities here, particularly a couple of short par 5s which should see plenty of birdies or better but Carnoustie is often about survival in this event, with the other two courses generally being the ones to make sure you score heavily on.

Kingsbarns Golf Links – 7227 par 72

The final course is the easiest and the newest of the three venues. Golf here can be traced back to the late 1700s, though the course as we know it was designed by Kyle Phillips, opening for play in 2000.

This is the only course of the three in which we have four par 5s, which are all scorable, as well as a drivable par 4 on the front nine. This explains somewhat, the usually easier scoring here over the years; along with the wide fairways and the generally less severe aesthetics of this manufactured “modern” links compared to its more natural counterparts.

That being said there is enough danger around here, with deep pot bunkers and tricky greens and with some potentially tricky weather on the way this week, it’s a course you can’t take lightly.

The Stats

The stats for past renewals of this event are all over the place, with various players missing certain stats from different days and a general unreliability in them because of the different format. So I’m not sure how much benefit there is to be delving into the stats from previous years.

Instead it’s perhaps sensible to prepare for the predicted conditions this week. 

Links courses always require a good short-game, regardless of conditions and that will likely be amped up this week if those difficulties do arise. 

In addition to this, whilst this event has often seen longer, inaccurate players thrive, think the likes of Lagergren, Pulkkanen, Bjerregaard, who have all gone well here in the last three years; in tough conditions they may not find these wide fairways as easy to find, nor will playing from the rough be as comfortable as other years, so I’m more keen on players who drive the ball well, regardless of whether they’re short or long as it will be important to control your ball in these conditions, something which will also be reflected in those who excel at finding greens.

Key Stats: SG: Around-the-Greens, Scrambling, SG: Putting, SG: Off-the-Tee, Greens-in-Regulation

Correlating Courses

There are so many courses which will work as a correlation this week, not just the obvious links courses used in the Scottish and Irish Opens; if you’ve gone well on exposed, generous driving courses, where wind is often a factor you can perform this week. 

Additionally, whilst I would normally ignore Open Championship form due to the kinder nature of the setup this week, the conditions may turn this into more of a championship test in-keeping with an Open Championship.

These where the five courses which I felt provided the most interesting form-ties with the Dunhill Links:

Qatar Masters @ Doha Golf Club

One of the first ports of call when looking for correlating courses here is always the Middle East. Courses are typically exposed, firm, full of bunkers and windy. The Qatar Masters at Doha Golf Club ticks these boxes.

Eddie Pepperell and Chris Wood have both won there and got good records in the Dunhill Links, whilst event specialist, Joakim Lagergren has finished 2nd there. There are plenty more form-ties on offer from Thorbjorn Olesen, Marc Warren and Oliver Fisher, who all back up good efforts in the Dunhill Links with 2nd place finishes in Qatar.

Abu Dhabi Championship @ Abu Dhabi Golf Club

My second trip to the Middle East comes to Abu Dhabi Golf Club, host of the Abu Dhabi Championship until this year. It has all the characteristics mentioned above and has developed strong form-ties with the ADL.

Outside of the more elite players of the DPWT to go well here, we find runner-up finishes from 2019 ADL champion, Victor Perez, along with Thorbjorn Olesen, Ross Fisher and Richard Sterne, all who have good recorded in Scotland; players like Kiradech Aphibarnrat, Soren Kjeldsen and Marc Warren solidifying this link.

Portugal Masters @ Dom Pedro Victoria Course

The Portugal Masters often sees links specialists go well, due the exposed nature of the Victoria Course.

2018 Dunhill Links champion, Lucas Bjerregaard has won and finished 2nd there, whilst Tom Lewis is a two-time winner and possesses a good record in the ADL. Joakim Lagergren helps to tie the form together again, with a 3rd place finish in Portugal, whilst Ross Fisher, Chris Wood and Marc Warren all make another appearance, each possessing a runner up finish there.

Czech Masters @ Albatross Golf Resort

Albatross Golf Resort is an exposed resort course with similarities to Portugal and has developed some similarly strong form-ties with the Dunhill Links.

Andrea Pavan has won and finished 3rd there, whilst recording finishes of 5th and 10th in Scotland; Tom Lewis has recorded 3rd and 6th place finishes in the Czech; whilst Soren Kjeldsen, Eddie Pepperell and Thorbjorn Olesen have top 5s. 

BMW PGA Championship @ Wentworth

Finally we have Wentworth, which despite it’s more classically tree-lined design has developed extremely strong form-ties with the Dunhill Links, as a course that often requires a strong short-game due to the difficulty on and around-the-greens.

Again, ignoring the bigger stars such as Tyrrell Hatton’ who has won both events, plenty of less stary names have form at both venues. Chris Wood has won there, with Victor Perez, Kiradech Aphibarnrat and Marc Warren finishing 2nd. Lucas Bjerregaard has finished 3rd at Wentworth; other players such as Eddie Pepperell, Soren Kjeldsen and Ross Fisher too possessing good records there.

The Weather

We are set for some linksy conditions this week as there is rain and strong winds forecast throughout the week, with Friday looking particularly challenging, with winds at 20mph+.

The Field

World #2 Rory McIlroy heads a strong group of Europeans, joined by Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry from inside the top 20; English duo of two-time winner Tyrrell Hatton and multiple times a runner-up here Tommy Fleetwood adding extra star quality to the field.

They’re joined by Americans, Billy Horschel and Talor Gooch, whilst defending champion, Danny Willett returns, hoping to gain redemption for his surprising final hole troubles that led to him throwing away the Fortinet Championship on the PGA Tour two weeks ago.

Selections

With the forecast conditions potentially causing draw biases and the pro-am element to this event, it’s not one to get stuck in at the top of the market for me, so I’m not interested in anyone under 33/1; right from Rory at 9/2 favourite to Thomas Pieters at 28/1. 

Alex Noren appealed with that electric short-game but he’s been off it in the ball-striking department and may find himself in too much trouble around here for me to pull the trigger at 33s.

Instead I start with an Open Champion, picking up that title at one of this week’s venues in 2018, Carnoustie, who has shown signs of getting back into some better form in recent starts, Italy’s Francesco Molinari.

Molinari has not been the same since that implosion in the final round of the 2019 Masters when holding a two-shot lead. He did finish 11th in The Open a few months following that but wasn’t able to reproduce the type of form that made him an Open Champion and two-time PGA Tour winner in the 12-18 months prior to his Masters mishap.

He played little in 2020 and whilst there were some positive signs early in 2021, he fell out of form as the year went on.

This year has been solid enough; a 6th at The AmEx at the start of the year his best result but most encouragingly coming into this week, he’s produced two of his best performances outside of that 6th at The AmEx in his last three starts, when 15th at The Open and an excellent 9th in the BMW PGA Championship following a near two-month absence; with a 34th at home in the Italian Open last time out a solid performance.

Another noteworthy thing about Molinari is that whilst his results dropped off after 2018/19, no areas of his game have looked a complete lost cause; he’s continued to show quality, intermittently in every area over the last two seasons, with the difference being that when he was in that form in 2018/19, he was doing everything well virtually all of the time.

Still, what it does show is that he’s a player not all that far away and when he does manage to put it all together again at the same time, which he will do at some point, he’ll be a serious danger. Something he’s been close to doing in those most recent starts.

When he was 15th in The Open, every club in the bag fired bar the driver, whilst since his return at the BMW PGA he’s put up two of his best driving performances of the last couple of years, gaining strokes in each of the seven rounds he’s played in his last two events, whilst the irons were good at Wentworth.

Typically possessing a neat and tidy game around the greens, Molinari is actually putting better this year than he has since at least 2017. If able to recapture that, with the way the rest of his game is looking, he can get the better of this test.

He hasn’t played this event since 2014 and only has a best of 36th going back to 2009, though I am of course encouraged by his win at Carnoustie in 2018, especially considering how difficult the conditions were there. His excellent record at Wentworth, where he’s won and finished 2nd shows he has the skillset to handle this test also, whilst he’s finished 2nd in Portugal and 8th in Abu Dhabi.

I thought Molinari was a tad overpriced here. His game has looked in good shape in those last three starts and as someone who is a proven winner at the very highest level of the game, he looks a big danger here.

I was very keen to give Thorbjorn Olesen another chance this week. He couldn’t quite get involved for us in France but there was huge encouragement to be taken from his 20th place finish, where he produced a field leading tee-to-green performance, his best since 2018; with the putter, which has been his biggest asset this year, ranking 20th on the DPWT, causing his downfall. Add into that he’s a past winner of the Dunhill Links and he looked a must bet.

That was the latest effort in a super-consistent run of form for the Dane, his 5th top 25 in eight starts; where the putter has fired throughout, besides last week; and where his tee-to-green game continues to improve. If able to repeat that type of T2G performance and get the putter firing like previous starts, he’d have to have a huge chance. 

As mentioned, this is an event he’s won before, back in 2015 and he’s also finished 2nd in. In addition to this he has excellent form in Qatar, where he’s finished 2nd and 3rd; as well as possessing a 2nd and 8th in Abu Dhabi; whilst he’s also hit the top 5 in the Czech Masters.

Olesen is a player who plays the wind well, not surprising considering his Nordic heritage and defied tough conditions to win at the Belfry earlier this year, a further tick for a player whose case speaks for itself here.

Adrian Otaegui’s been in stellar form on the DPWT of late; and after finally seeming to get the hang of this setup last year, he can go even better this week.

Otaegui’s recent form figures on the DPWT read 3rd in the Hero Open, 13th in the BMW PGA, 25th in the Italian Open and 13th in the Open de France. A run of results in which his short-game has been in electric form and where I was also pleased to see him drive it well last week in France, following a couple of underwhelming efforts with the driver.

These recent short-game showings are no new thing for the Spaniard, who ranks 1st on the DPWT this season in scrambling, 8th around-the-greens and 42nd in putting. Add in a straight and steady ball-striking game and he should enjoy this week’s test.

This hadn’t been overly evident in previous efforts in this event until last year, having record a 61st place finish in debut in 2014 and a 48th the following year, he then missed four cuts on the bounce, though produced his best finish yet when 27th last year. His record in Qatar offers plenty of promise, where he’s finished 5th and 10th, the 5th coming this year in extremely tough conditions, whilst his win in the 2020 Scottish Championship and 2nd in the 2021 Scandi Invitational show further his liking for these more open, linksy courses.

Otaegui is a player in form coming into this event following his best effort last year; combined with his proven form in the wind and form on similarly exposed courses, he looks a live player this week…

Lucas Bjeerregaard is our second Dane and second past champion. With the form he’s looked in with the short-game over recent weeks I feel he can continue what has been a more solid run of form of late compared to earlier in the year, this week in Scotland.

Bjerregaard missed 12 of his first 14 cuts of the year, though turned his fortunes around with a 27th in the co-sanctioned Barbasol in the U.S, finishing 27th. Since then he’s made 4 of his next 8 cuts, including a season’s best 3rd in the Cazoo Open and comes into this off the back of his 2nd best performance of the year, when 20th in France.

He has been at his best on and around the greens this year, ranking 59th around-the-greens and 72nd in putting; gaining strokes in 5 of his last 7 starts on the greens and 4 ATG. The long game is harder to find positives but there have been a few, particularly in Wales where he fired both with the driver and irons; also producing positive numbers off-the-tee when missing the cuts in Italy and in the Euro Masters.

Whilst the driver is inaccurate, his misses have been a little smaller in recent weeks, something he’ll need to continue, even improve upon if wanting to repeat what he did here in 2018 when winning, a performance all the more notable as conditions were tough, much like we’ll find this week. In addition he’s a winner in Portugal, as well as finishing 2nd; has a 3rd in the BMW PGA and top 10 in the Czech Masters, amongst plenty of other pieces of form you could link into this week.

Bjerregaard is starting to find a little more consistency; with the quality he’s showing with the short-game, combined with his past winning experience here in similarly tricky conditions, he can turn that win into DPWT title number three. 

Pablo Larrazabal was the form player on tour earlier in the year, winning twice in the space of four starts and produced a further three top 6s; as a player possessing one of the better short-games on tour, as well as showing an ability to handle the wind; I’m taking him to bounce back from some underwhelming recent form this week.

Those two wins for Larrazabal came in the ISPS Handa Championship in Spain and the MyGolfLife Open in South Africa, both exposed courses and particularly notable in Spain as he fired a superb closing 62 to win, doing so in windy conditions, an event that Otaegui finished runner-up in, a boost to his chances. Whilst he finished 5th in Qatar amongst those wins, as mentioned another event where conditions were tough.

He finished 5th in the BMW International Open six starts ago, though his form has tailed off a little since; nothing too alarming, with most areas showing some signs of life. I’m also not concerned about his retirement two weeks ago in Italy, which came when he was set to miss the cut anyway in a weather delayed event, suggesting there was nothing untoward in terms of injury.

We know Pablo is a little erratic with the ball-striking, though he makes up for it with arguably the best all-round short-game on tour, ranking 7th around-the-greens, 8th in putting and 18th in scrambling on the DPWT this season.

This speaks to how he’s able to scrap in these tough conditions and why he’s had some solid finishes here over the years, with two top 25s in 2013 and 2016. As well as those performances earlier this year, we find his suitability further for this type of test from a victory in Abu Dhabi, as well as a 2nd place finish; a 4th place finish in Qatar to go with that 5th this year; and top 10s in Portugal and at Wentworth. 

Many of Larrazabal’s wins have come when conditions have been somewhat difficult and with countless quality efforts in the wind, he can rediscover that form that he offered earlier in the year.

Finally I’m going to take a chance on Renato Paratore, again. He was amongst my selections a few times a number of weeks ago and though his form has dipped a little over his last couple of starts, his game hasn’t been that much different; and he can use his super short-game to recapture that form he was showing a handful of starts ago.

Paratore’s form turned around with a fabulous 3rd place finish in the Wales Open, due massively to an excellent week on the greens, following that with a 4th place finish in the ISPS Handa World Invitational and then a 13th in the Czech Masters.

Results remained solid thereafter, finishing 29th in the Euro Masters and 52nd in Denmark, though he’s missed his last two cuts in Italy and France. What has been a huge positive across these results, even the more underwhelming ones, is that he’s started to find much greater accuracy off-the-tee, with positive driving accuracy stats in 4 of those 8 starts, something that can often be his undoing.

Add this to his short-game stats, of which he ranks 11th around-the-greens and 7th in putting on the DPWT this season, we find a player that can handle the testing conditions this week.

After being DQ’d on debut in 2015 Paratore showed how his game suited this setup when 7th in 2016. He’s since missed three cuts in the event but I’m encouraged by a solid 43rd in 2018, the year Bjerregaard won in difficult conditions. In addition to his good form here, Paratore has top 5s in Qatar and Czechia, as well as a 7th at Wentworth. 

Wind was a factor in Paratore’s debut win in the Nordea Masters in 2018, as it was when he won the British Masters at Close House in 2020, with the quality of his short-game and that recent, newfound accuracy with the driver, he can tame the wind again this week.