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World Cup Top Scorer Odds: How often does the Golden Boot winner come from the winning team?

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It’s now just over six weeks until the 2022 World Cup in Qatar gets underway, with the hosts Qatar taking on Ecuador in the opening fixture on Sunday 20 November. 

As part of our analysis into some of the biggest betting markets surrounding the tournament, today we’ve decided to look back at previous renewals and have asked the question: ‘How often does the top-scorer come from the winning team?’

2022 Favourites 

First up let’s take a look at the current 2022 World Cup Top Goalscorer market and see which names are lurking at the head of the market.

It’s worth noting that most bookmakers have four places available each-way at 1/4 odds in this market and the current favourite is England’s Harry Kane at a best price of 8/1. In 2018 Kane bagged himself the Golden Boot in Russia with six goals in total. 50% of those came from the penalty spot and it could well be worth siding with a spot-kick taker this time round.

Kylian Mbappe scored four goals in the 2018 World Cup as his side lifted the trophy beating Croatia 4-2 in the final. The Frenchman is sure to be a popular choice in this market and at the age of 23, already has 28 International goals and 59 appearances to his name. For those who fancy him to claim a Golden Boot to go with that World Cup winners medal, 9/1 is available.

Another of Mbappe’s teammates comes next in the market with Karim Benzema being found at a best price of 14/1 with a couple of bookmakers. The five-time Champions League winner is the odds-on favourite to win this year's Ballon d’or award after a sensational 12 months with Real Madrid. 

Next up it’s that man, Lionel Messi, whose Argentina side have not tasted defeat since all the way back in July 2019. That’s a run of an incredible 35 matches in all formats for Argentina, and if you fancy Messi to win his first Golden Boot, he can be backed at 14/1. Although it’s worth pointing out that he has never scored a goal in the knockout stages of the competition.

World Cup Odds

Previous winners

The World Cup first took place in 1930, although it wasn’t until 1982 that a specific award was given to the player with the most goals in the tournament. This was called the Golden Shoe award up until 2010 when it was renamed the Golden Boot. Below you can find a full list of the top goal-scorers from each renewal, their nationality, and the team that lifted the trophy.

Year - Winner - Top Goalscorer

  • 1930 - Uruguay - Guillermo Stabile (Uruguay) 
  • 1934 - Italy - Oldrich Nejedly (Czechoslovakia)
  • 1938 - Italy - Leonidas (Brazil)
  • 1950 - Brazil - Ademir (Brazil)
  • 1954 - West Germany - Sandor Kocsis (Hungary)
  • 1958 - Brazil - Just Fontaine (France)
  • 1962 - Brazil - Garrincha (Brazil)
  • 1966 - England - Eusebio (Portugal)
  • 1970 - Brazil - Gerd Muller (West Germany)
  • 1974 - West Germany - Gregorz Lato (Poland)
  • 1978 - Argentina - Mario Kempes (Argentina)
  • 1982 - Italy - Paolo Rossi (Italy)
  • 1986 - Argentina - Gary Linekar (England)
  • 1990 - West Germany - Salvatore Schillaci (Italy)
  • 1994 - Brazil - Oleg Salenko (Russia)
  • 1998 - France - Davor Suker (Croatia)
  • 2002 - Brazil - Ronaldo (Brazil)
  • 2006 - Italy - Miroslav Klose (Germany)
  • 2010 - Spain - Thomas Muller (Germany)
  • 2014 - Germany - James Rodriguez (Colombia)
  • 2018 - France - Harry Kane (England)

As we can see from the findings, only five of the 21 World Cup tournaments have yielded a top-scorer who plays for the winning team. This is surprisingly low at just 23.8%, with the last time it happened being back in 2002 when Ronaldo rattled home eight goals in Korea and Japan. 

World Cup Top Scorer Odds

Kylian Mbappe
WIN PROB: 24%
1
£30 FREE BET
£50 FREE BET
3/1
£30 FREE BET
3/1
£30 FREE BET
3/1
REVEAL OFFER
£20 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£40 FREE BET
5/2
£30 FREE BET
5/2
Lionel Messi
WIN PROB: 11%
1
REVEAL OFFER
8/1
£30 FREE BET
£50 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£40 FREE BET
6/1
£30 FREE BET
5/1
Richarlison
WIN PROB: 9%
1
£30 FREE BET
REVEAL OFFER
9/1
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£50 FREE BET
8/1
£30 FREE BET
8/1
£40 FREE BET
8/1
£20 FREE BET
8/1
£30 FREE BET
6/1
Cody Gakpo
WIN PROB: 7%
1
REVEAL OFFER
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£50 FREE BET
9/1
£30 FREE BET
9/1
£40 FREE BET
9/1
£30 FREE BET
9/1
Marcus Rashford
WIN PROB: 7%
1
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Alvaro Morata
WIN PROB: 5%
1
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Ferran Torres
WIN PROB: 4%
1
£50 FREE BET
REVEAL OFFER
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Cristiano Ronaldo
WIN PROB: 3%
1
£30 FREE BET
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REVEAL OFFER
£50 FREE BET
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Olivier Giroud
WIN PROB: 3%
1
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Bruno Fernandes
WIN PROB: 3%
1
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
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£20 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
Enner Valencia
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
REVEAL OFFER
£30 FREE BET
Bukayo Saka
WIN PROB: 2%
1
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
£50 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Andrej Kramaric
WIN PROB: 1%
1
REVEAL OFFER
£40 FREE BET
£20 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
Harry Kane
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
REVEAL OFFER
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
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£20 FREE BET
Sequeira Joao Felix
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£50 FREE BET
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Vinicius Junior
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Niclas Fullkrug
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£30 FREE BET
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£40 FREE BET
Neymar
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
Aleksandar Mitrovic
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Georginio Wijnaldum
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£50 FREE BET
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Gerard Moreno
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£50 FREE BET
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Robert Lewandowski
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£30 FREE BET
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Marco Asensio
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£20 FREE BET
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Rafael Leao
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Julian Alvarez
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Darwin Nunez
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Paul Pogba
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Phil Foden
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Lautaro Martinez
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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£40 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
£30 FREE BET
Gavi
WIN PROB: 1%
1
REVEAL OFFER
£30 FREE BET
Raphinha
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Raheem Sterling
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Mohammed Kudus
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Michy Batshuayi
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£50 FREE BET
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Ilkay Gundogan
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Rodrygo
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Leroy Sane
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Gabriel Jesus
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Ollie Watkins
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Marko Livaja
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£50 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
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Marco Reus
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£50 FREE BET
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Enzo Fernandes
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£50 FREE BET
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Carlos Soler
WIN PROB: 1%
1
REVEAL OFFER
£30 FREE BET
Anthony
WIN PROB: 1%
Antoine Griezmann
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Kai Havertz
WIN PROB: 1%
1
£40 FREE BET
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£30 FREE BET
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Dani Olmo
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Memphis Depay
WIN PROB: 0%
1
£30 FREE BET
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Jude Bellingham
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Breel Embolo
WIN PROB: 0%
1
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Jamal Musiala
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Serge Gnabry
WIN PROB: 1%
1
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Christian Pulisic
WIN PROB: 0%