West Ham vs. Wolves Betting Tips: Back Neves at a generous price in the Shots on Target market

The live offering on Sky Sports this Saturday evening pits 17th against 18th as West Ham take on Wolves at the London Stadium. We’ve tasked @AnthonyEadson to preview the game and provide us with his best bets from the capital.

With both sides having just one win to their name this season it’s a key game for both teams, particularly West Ham who will have had their sights on another European finish this campaign. The Hammers have scored just three league goals in seven matches this term and despite back-to-back victories in the Europa Conference League, David Moyes’ men are currently on a six game winless run in front of their own fans in the Premier League.

Wolves also find themselves with the joint worst attacking record in the division this season, having netted on just three occasions. Bruno Lage’s side may take confidence from having the joint best defensive record on the road this term, having conceded three away from Molineux, however they are now on a run of seven away league matches without a win.

James Collins was sent off for Wolves in the first half of their most recent match against Manchester City, which could lead to a start for Portuguese defender Toti to come into the starting line-up after spending time on loan in Switzerland over the last two seasons. Diego Costa is pushing for a start which could come at a welcome time for the Old Gold considering Raul Jimenez’s groin injury is looking worse than initial reports found.  

Nayef Aguerd is still a few weeks away from full fitness for the Hammers, although Ben Johnson could well return from a thigh injury. Gianluca Scamacca is pushing for his second league start after, with Maxwel Cornet also expected to slot in and replace Pablo Fornals.

A look at the form and results of both of these sides this season point to a low scoring game. I’ve therefore focused my attention on the shots on target market, and have taken a 1 point bet on Ruben Neves to record one or more in the match.

Only the three relegated sides last season scored fewer goals than Wolves in 2021/22, and when looking back at their shot data, I was surprised to see that no player for Bruno Lage’s side registered more shots on target than midfielder Ruben Neves. 

Neves, who is still only 25, recorded 16 shots on target in the 2021/2022 season, clearing the 1+ line in 15 of his 33 appearances (45.5%). If we take the ‘big six’ out of that sample the figure rises to 11 times in 21 appearances that this line was cleared (52.3%), and with odds of 2/1 implying a 33.3% chance of this selection landing, I think we are getting ourselves a nice bit of value.

Premier League fans are eagerly awaiting the return of Diego Costa who has reportedly been looking sharp in training over the International break. There’s no guarantee that he will make the starting XI so you may want to hold off until team news is announced, but should the Spaniard start the game I’ll be having a punt on him to score and record Over 1.5 shots on target at a very backable 12/1 with bet365.

Wolves are crying out for an edge in the final third and Costa could well provide the ammunition they have been requiring for a season or two now. The former Chelsea striker is priced at 11/10 for Over 0.5 and 6/1 for Over 1.5 shots on target, which is way too big in my opinion and are prices that will not hang around for long should he start to find a bit of form for his new employers. Combining Over 1.5 shots on target with Costa to score anytime in the match comes out at 12/1 via the bet365 Bet Builder feature and I wouldn’t put anyone off taking that price should he start on Saturday tea-time. 

Best of luck to anyone following and please always gamble responsibly.