Uruguay vs Brazil Prediction and Betting Tips: Canarinho could struggle

Uruguay face Brazil in a blockbuster Copa America quarter-final at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas in the early hours of Sunday morning.

La Celeste arrive in better shape than the Selecao with a 100 per cent record in Group C having scored nine goals already.

Brazil finished second in Group D after dropping points against both Costa Rica and Colombia while two bookings for Vinicius Junior will mean the Real Madrid man sits out this clash due to a one-game suspension.

The South American neighbours have faced each other 79 times, with Brazil holding the record with 38 wins and Uruguay victorious 21 times in addition to 20 draws.

Uruguay had not beaten Brazil for 22 years until Marcelo Bielsa's team proved too strong in their most recent meeting last October, when goals from Darwin Nunez and Nicolas de la Cruz secured a 2-0 World Cup qualifying win in Montevideo.

Uruguay’s victory over Brazil last year began a run of consecutive wins in competitive matches that now extends to six after this week’s 1-0 success over the United States.

Bielsa’s side eliminated the Copa America hosts with that result despite already having qualified from Group C, which demonstrates the winning mentality of the squad.

The former Leeds boss resisted the temptation to change his side too with his assistant later explaining that they felt there was ample recovery time between that game and this quarter-final to be able to leave star names in the line-up.  

While everything about Uruguay seems settled and measured, Brazil’s play at this tournament has lacked direction and conviction, particularly in front of goal.

Dorival Junior’s side squandered some good chances to score in their goalless draw with Costa Rica and lacked a cutting edge form open play in the 1-1 stalemate with Colombia last time out.

It was a similar story when they last faced Uruguay in October as the only exciting moment Brazil produced was when Rodrygo’s free-kick smacked Sergio Rochet’s crossbar.

The absence of Vinicius Junior will harm Brazil’s chances a little, but the Real Madrid star has been nowhere near as effective for his country as his club in the last 12 months.

Even so, it is hard to see how Brazil can create enough danger or convert their chances against a team that is very well-organised and tactically attuned to Bielsa’s plan.

La Celeste will carry the greater threat from open play and are solid enough at defending set-pieces, but as this is a knockout match at a major tournament, it may be best to take the draw-no-bet option.

This edition of the Copa America has not seen as many goals as neutral fans would have hoped for with only one in three group matches producing over 2.5 goals and the average number of goals being 2.21 per game. 

Things might get even tighter now some of the weaker nations have been eliminated and it should pay to back under 2.5 goals in this quarter-final.

Two of Brazil’s tournament matches have seen fewer than three goals scored and the last match between these sides finished 2-0 to Uruguay.

Darwin Nunez has found his flow again this summer with the Liverpool striker equalling a 96-year-old record for Uruguay by scoring in six consecutive internationals.

He was unable to break it outright as chances fell to others against the United States, but Nunez’s confidence should have shot up again after a difficult end to the season at Anfield.

The ex-Benfica striker has evolved into a goal provider as well as goalscorer.

He assisted eight Premier League goals for Liverpool last term and both scored and set up goals during Uruguay’s 2-0 win over Brazil last October.

Nunez is still having a more than acceptable number of shots during this tournament with only one player managing more than his total of 13 across Uruguay’s three matches.