UFC 270 Odds: All the picks for this huge card

UFC270 takes places this weekend and we've asked our in-house grappler Ste Mcquillan to preview it and pick out five tips for the big fights.

The first pay-per-view card of the year will be underway this weekend and what a card it is. The Heavyweight Championship will be on the line in Ngannou’s highly anticipated bout against Ciryl Gane in the main event and the co-main event sees Mexico’s newly-minted flyweight champion of the world, Brandon Moreno face former champ, Deiveson Figueiredo,  for the belt. There are plenty of other fights on the card that I’ll get into later but it’s safe to say that UFC 270 is absolutely stacked. On paper, we’ve got two 50/50 title fights but the bookmakers suggest there’s more of a chance that the heavyweight champion loses his crown in the main event which is surprising but I’d have to say makes sense.

Francis Ngannou is the most feared heavyweight on the planet, but then why is Gane the favourite you might ask? It’s fairly simple, Ciryl Gane is 10-0 in his MMA career and genuinely looks to be one of the best to ever do it even if the short amount of fights he’s had. 

This man is the complete package when it comes to mixed martial arts. In Gane’s 10 professional wins, four of them are KOs, three are submissions and three are decisions. If that doesn’t show you the diversity in his skill set then I'm not sure what will. It’s quite the opposite for Francis Ngannou, who has a 75% KO/TKO ratio when it comes to his wins and has suffered defeat three times in his career. When faced with adversity Ngannou really hasn’t dealt with it well in the past, he showed a big difference when he fought Stipe Miocic in their last fight where he stuffed takedowns and landed the big punches, but ultimately, I do think Cyril Gane will prove to be too much for the champ on the big night. The interim champion will be the one wanting to take this to the ground but I also think he’s more than capable of winning the battle on the feet as well. 

Ngannou will be looking for that one punch knock-out all fight long, as he always does, but the more technical side of Ciryl Gane might see Francis struggle massively to connect. The undefeated Frenchman utilises a lot of tools that other heavyweights do not. Heavyweight fighting has always been about who hits the hardest, but Gane has a completely different approach, he fights with the style of someone half the size of him and it works. He often uses tools such as leg kicks, grappling, jabs and especially his movement to outlast his open, normally resulting in a finish but if it goes to the scorecards, he’s in a comfortable position to take the win. The bookmakers see this is a close fight and whilst I’m siding with Gane to win at 4/6, you’d be better at looking in the method of victory market to squeeze some extra value. In all honesty, I do see a TKO victory for Ciryl here which is priced at 11/4, I think he’ll be too much technically and completely tear the champion apart resulting in a TKO victory for him. 

Of course, we can’t cover the main event without talking about the absolute blockbuster of a co-main event between Moreno and Figueiredo. Now this is an interesting fight and not only that, it looks like the decider in a trilogy between the two. The Mexican and Brazilian recorded a draw in their first fight and a Moreno victory in the second fight and now the title is on the line again in this championship bout. I think it’s fair to say Figueiredo would have won the first fight if it wasn’t for a point deduction on his behalf, which in my opinion means that we can put this series at basically 1-1. With that in mind, this is a 50/50 fight, yet the bookmakers have the Brazilian as a decent underdog at 6/4. 

Brandon Moreno has completely revitalised his career in the UFC, he came through the ultimate fighter and ended up losing his first two fights in the UFC and it really wasn’t looking good for him. Fast forward to today and he’s the flyweight champion after beating one of the finest in the business. I am a big fan of the Mexican, I think his boxing is clean which is a massive compliment considering 11 of his 19 wins have come via submission. He’s great on the ground and sticking it to a veteran like Deiveson in the BJJ department is incredibly impressive. I can see why the bookmakers have him as the favourite going into this one, but something about me really wants to back the former champ in this matchup, purely for value purposes, I think Daico is the pick. To add even more value, and this is what I’ll be personally putting on my bets, I think Figueiredo to win via decision at around 4/1 is great value. 

Like I said previously the former champion was winning their first bout and would have had a win on his record if it wasn’t for the point deduction and the first fight was an absolute war. I can see more of the same here to be honest, a gruelling five rounder that ultimately ends up in the Brazilian getting his hand raised, if anything’s for sure, it’s going to be a great fight and both of them putting everything on the line.

The main event and co-main are head and shoulders above the rest of the fights on the card but I’ll still be giving my thoughts on some of the other fights, just not in as much detail.

First up would be Michel Pereira’s fight against Andre Fialho, a fight I think that Pereira should comfortably win. The bookmakers seem to have it right on this one pricing the Brazilian at 1/3 but you can squeeze a lot more value out if you back him to win via TKO/KO, he has a 37% KO ratio in his wins and his opponent as two KO losses on his record, 2/1 seems a nice little bet for a finish from the favourite.

Said Nurmagomedov is up next and when you hear the name Nurmagomedov you automatically expect him to be the favourite and this case is no different. The Russian is 14-2 in his professional career and whilst he’s up against a formidable opponent in Cody Stamann I can see a decision win for Said here. Both fighters love a decision win, and they’re both around the 58% mark for wins via decision on their professional record, you can get the 1/2 favourite at 6/5 for a decision win with Paddy Power.

The last fight I want to touch on is BJJ legend Rodolfo Vieira’s fight against Wellington Turman. I was incredibly disappointed with Vieira’s fight against Anthony Hernandez which saw one of the biggest upsets in UFC history with a 30/1 win via submission happened. Regardless of this I think Vieira has bounced back well and with his 88% submission ratio, it’d be silly not to back the EVS submission victory.

The acca on these five pics pays a collossal 360/1 if you fancy a long shot punt. Please enjoy the fights and remember to gamble responsibly.