Southampton vs West Brom Prediction and Betting Tips: Back Smallbone to be carded at a big price

Southampton face West Bromwich Albion in the second leg of their Championship play-off semi-final on Friday night, with a place at Wembley and a potential return to Premier League on the cards for the winner.

Neither of the first legs of the Championship play-off finals will live long in the memory as all four teams failed to find the net. Southampton will have been the happier of the two as they managed to keep a clean sheet at The Hawthorns and the Saints have been installed as the favourites to progress to the final.

West Brom squandered several chances in front of their own fans last Sunday, with central defender Kyle Bartley recording four of their 14 shots. The Baggies can be backed at 4/1 to secure a win inside 90 minutes at St Mary's. The draw is available at 11/4, and for those looking to back Southampton 5/6 is on show, implying a 54.5% chance of victory.

Southampton have only lost one of their last nine meetings with West Bromwich Albion in all competitions (W7 D1), having been defeated 0-3 in the Premier League in April 2021. For my main bet of the evening on Friday we are backing Under 2.5 goals, which is best priced at 10/11 with bet365.

Play-off semi-finals can often be cagey affairs with the prospect of a final on the line. Russell Martin changed to three centre-backs in the first leg in order to try and deal with West Brom’s aerial threat. This was effective, but the Saints manager may be tempted to switch to their usual style with the home advantage here. Despite Southampton potentially playing a more attacking formation we think the visitors could prove a tough nut to crack considering back-to-back clean sheets and another low scoring affair looks likely here.

Just three yellow cards were dished out by referee Samuel Barott in the first leg and we think this could see a bigger total in the return fixture. The player we have been drawn to at the current prices is Southampton’s Will Smallbone, who can be backed at a very generous looking 7/1 with Sky Bet. 

The 24-year-old has started 36 second-tier matches this season scoring six goals and providing three assists. Smallbone has been booked in eight of those 36 league starts and has also been carded in the FA Cup this term. Considering the context of this game, 7/1 simply looks too big for a player with as many cards this season as Smallbone. For context, bet365 have him at 9/2, which is more of the true price in my opinion.