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Southampton v Manchester City Tips: Saints to ship goals against City

Hassenhuttl's side look set to struggle against a rampant City
Hassenhuttl's side look set to struggle against a rampant City

Southampton take on Manchester City on Sunday with the game being shown live on BBC1 kicking off at 7pm. City arrive off the back of a 4-0 thrashing they dished out to Liverpool on Thursday night at the Etihad while Southampton have had an extra five days to prepare after they won on the road for the eighth time this season at strugglers Watford last weekend. Kevin De Bruyne was exemplary in everything he did against Liverpool and as a result has now been backed into favourite to win PFA Player of the year with some bookmakers now giving him a 50% implied chance of winning the award with odds around even money.

Sergio Aguero misses out for Manchester City with Pep poised to rotate his team as second place is all but confirmed with just six games to go and the FA cup now becoming his priority. Zinchenko, Bernardo Silva could return to the starting line up with Fernandinho now available after serving as suspension. Ralph Hassenhuttl announced that Sofian Boufal and Pierre Hojbjerg will miss the game with injuries however there could be a welcome return for Moussa Djenpo after serving a three match suspension for his red card against Newcastle back in March.

Having a look at the prices for the win William Hill have gone 17/2 top price for a home win to the Saints with the draw being offered at around 9/2. It’s no surprise to see the bookmakers taking no chances on Manchester City after their performance the other night and they are just 1/3 with Betfred to take all three points at St Mary’s. 

Southampton v Manchester City

Southampton
WIN PROB: 8%
1
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9/1
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9/1
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9/1
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9/1
Draw
WIN PROB: 15%
1
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5/1
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5/1
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9/2
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9/2
Manchester City
WIN PROB: 78%
1
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2/7
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2/7
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1/4
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1/4
Odds correct as of 2022-01-20 10:21 Odds subject to change.
Southampton v Manchester City Tip #1
19:00
Man City to win by 2 or more goals
All of City's wins since the restart have been by 2 or more goals Southampton would be 20th if the table was based on home results
Odds correct as of 2020-07-04 13:45 Odds subject to change.

I’ve picked out three football tips which I like the look of for the game and the first of those is Manchester City to win by 2 or more goals at the generous price of 11/10 from betfair.

As we all saw on Thursday, City were absolutely flawless at times against Liverpool with some of their forward play a joy to behold. Even with them having a much shorter recovery period than Southampton to prepare for this game I still see this being a comfortable win for Pep Guardiola’s side. He’s sure to make changes as he always does but with the strength and depth available within the squad I don’t see this being an issue for City. All of their 4 victories since the restart have been by a 2 goal or bigger margin and I see this one following suit on Sunday.

One of the key factors into this bet is how poor Southampton have been at home this season. If the Premier League table was based on just home results this season the Saints would be rock bottom in 20th. They have amassed just 4 wins on home turf all season in the league but yet are safe from relegation with 40 points in 14th position. On the road this season remarkably Southampton have won 8 matches, double that of their home victories and were the table to be based on away fixtures they would be 5th above both Leicester and Manchester United. 

Having a shop around on the Manchester City -1 handicap for the match result I can see that William Hill and SkyBet have this as short as 4/5 which makes the odds against offering of 11/10 from betfair a price I’m happy to have on board. 

Southampton v Manchester City Tip #2
19:00
Correct Score: Manchester City 3-0
Southampton have the fewest points at home of any team in the league All four of City's wins since the restart have been 'to nil'  
Odds correct as of 2020-07-04 13:45 Odds subject to change.

My second selection for this game is for Manchester City to win 3-0 in the correct score market at 17/2 with Bet365. Take away the result at Chelsea for Pep’s side and they have won all four of their other matches and have done so in a very convincing manner. As mentioned above for my main selection all four of those wins were with a two goal or bigger margin and it’s fair say are no strangers to shipping goals at home this season. They’ve conceded 9 against Leicester, 4 against Chelsea and 3 against Wolves and Bournemouth in home defeats this season.

3-0 is my gut instinct here and I can see that WilliamHill have it priced at 7/1 with bet365 being top price at the time of writing at 17/2. You may even be able to get a slightly bigger price on the Betfair Exchange and as usual I’d always advise shopping around for the best price possible, it really makes a huge difference over the course of a season.

Southampton v Manchester City Tip #3
19:00
Ings & Foden to score, Ward-Prowse 1+ shot on target
Danny Ings has 18 league goals, his best ever season Phil Foden has 4 goals in his last 4 games Ward-Prowse 1+ shot on target has landed in the last three Southampton games
Odds correct as of 2020-07-04 13:50 Odds subject to change.

Finally I’ve picked out a Same Game Multi at the long-odds of 25/1 with both Betfair and PaddyPower, for Danny Ings and Phil Foden to score, with James Ward-Prowse to have 1+ shot on target.

Ings has been a revelation this season for Hassenhuttl’s side finding the net no less than eighteen times in the league, an excellent achievement. Now back at the club that he joined as a schoolboy Ings has flourished this season and is in the form of his career at the moment. It would be no surprise to see him show that clinical finishing he has possessed of late and get himself onto the scoresheet again this Sunday.

“He needs to move, he needs game time” is all we have seem to have listened to over the last couple of years or so when it comes to Manchester City’s Phil Foden. The Stockport Iniesta has been one of the best players to watch since football’s resumption after the very rude interruption from Covid19. He’s netted 4 goals and provided 2 assists in just 4 games which is the most of any player since the resumption, and as a result has shortened in the betting to make the Euro 2021 squad to an odds-on price. 4 goals in 4 starts is good going for any striker but with Foden busting a gut to get into the box and let off shots at any opportunity we are going to take a chance on him bagging another on the south coast. 

In Southampton’s three matches since the restart James Ward-Prowse has managed 6 shots on target. Scoring a free-kick in the away win at Watford most recently, Prowse has proved his prowess with his accurate shooting from long distance. He’s priced at 8/5 to have 1 or more shots on target in this one and it’s a single that has landed in his last three matches and one I fancy to land again here with a potential free-kick gained from a counter attack for Southampton. Putting these three elements together pays 25/1 with Betfair and PaddyPower with Coral having it at just 16/1. As always, enjoy the game, and please remember to gamble responsibly.

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