Scotland v Moldova Prediction: Play the cards at Hampden

Scotland’s hopes of World Cup qualification suffered a minor setback on Wednesday when they were defeated 2-0 by Euro 2020 Semi-finalist Denmark. However, Steve Clarke’s side will be hopeful they can bounce back when they host Moldova- the world’s 175th best side according to FIFA- at Hampden Park on Saturday evening. 

With the hosts currently propping up Group F having taken one point from a possible 12, scoring twice and shipping 15 goals in the process, it may come as no surprise to see them priced at 25/1 here. The visitors are searching for their competitive first win in 17 matches though, so you could make the case that they should be a little longer here.

As for team news, Clarke’s original plans for his side's trip to Copenhagen were scuppered when eight players were ruled out. Of those eight, John McGinn, Nathan Patterson and Stephen O'Donnell all come back into the fold. One of the latter two will come in at right back with Andy Robertson shifting back over to LWB and Kieran Tierney slotting back in at LCB. Elsewhere, Lydon Dykes could get the nod from the off in attack as Sctoland will be hoping to dominate proceedings here instead of playing off the counter. 

Lawrence Visser has the whistle for this one and so far this campaign, the Belgian referee has brandished 34 yellows and four red cards in just six games, that is an average of 6.33 per game! The last international fixtures he took charge of was in the Nations League where in two games he was awarded a penalty, a red card and ten yellows in total. Therefore, given Visser’s pedigree, I think the player card markets are worth delving into here.

The first price that takes my fancy is Moldova's left back Oleg Reabciuk, who is 13/5 with Bet365. Reabciuk has averaged 0.30 cards per 90 over the course of his career which makes 365’s price marginal value. He has picked up six bookings in his last 20 appearances, one of which came in his last game for his nation vs Austria.

Assuming he gets the nod at left back on Saturday evening, as is expected, he will be tasked with containing either Arsenal’s Kieran Tierney or Liverpool’s Andy Robertson. With O’Donnell back in the fold though, both could start down Scotland’s left flank meaning Reabiuk will be in for a very long afternoon. 

Sticking with cards I also like the look of Moldova’s centre back Veaceslav Posmac to go into the book at 15/2 with Bet365.

Staggeringly, both Posmac and Reabciuk have the same cards per 90 average for their nation (0.25), yet the former is more than twice the price of his compatriot to go into the book which obviously makes him insane value. In his last 14 competitive starts for his nation, Posmac has picked up four bookings and a red card! 

It is also worth noting that Posmac will likely be duelling with Lyndon Dykes. The QPR striker's rough and tumble nature means that he is never far away from a bit of beef. During his time up North he picked up 29 cards in 125 appearances, he also drew a fair few from his direct opponents so I am hopeful he can draw Posmac into a wrestling match.

If the physicality of Dykes is not enough to trouble Posmac, then the pace of Che Adams will be. The last time this pair lined upfront together, Dejan Lovern was carded and the time before that a centre back for Luxembourg received his marching orders. Posmac is no stranger to a red card either having been shown one vs Greece for a tactical last man foul. 

For a longshot you can combine these two selections at 33/1 using Bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’. However, as I write this is the only bookie to have priced this market so it might be worth shopping around for a better price on Saturday evening with the likes of Betfair, Paddy Power, William Hill, Unibet and Sky all pricing players in this market in the midweek.

Best of luck if you are backing this selection and please remember to gamble responsibly.