Where's the shots on target value to be had in Leipzig PSG clash?
It’s the first of the Champions League semi-finals this evening with RB Leipzig taking on Paris Saint-Germain. Goals should be on the menu in this game with both Betfair and Paddy Power going 1/2 for both teams to get on the scoresheet this evening.
In terms of the result PSG have been made the 8/11 favourites to win inside 90 minutes with William Hill, while a win for the German side is being offered at 10/3 with most firms. However, it’s the shots on target market where I’ve taken a dive into the prices (Paddy Power & Betfair) to see where the value could potentially lie.
Kylian Mbappe - Average shots on target per game this season: 2.3
1+ shots on target - 1/20
2+ shots on target - 2/5
3+ shots on target - 7/5
Anyone who watched the quarter-final between Atalanta and PSG will have seen the impact that Kyllian Mbappe had when coming off the bench with just 38 minutes remaining. He managed two shots on target in that time and also provided an assist. For me he looks a much better prospect at 6/5 to score anytime with Betfair, with Stoke-based bookmaker bet365 having him as short as 8/11 to find the net this evening.
Neymar - Average shots on target per game this season: 2.2
1+ shots on target - 1/12
2+ shots on target - 4/7
3+ shots on target - 2/1
Neymar was instrumental last week in PSG’s win in the dying embers of the game against the boys from Bergamo. He managed six shots in total with two hitting the target, as well as an assist. He almost certainly should have had himself a goal, and with him being the free-kick taker for the Parisiens, he could be a better prospect in this market than teammate Mbappe.
Angel Di Maria - Average shots on target per game this season: 1.0
1+ shots on target: 8/11
2+ shots on target: 5/1
3+ shots on target: 18/1
The Argentinian should come back into the side this evening after serving a suspension. He’s averaged 0.9 shots on target per game in the league this season and that figure rises to 1.1 per game in the seven Champions League fixtures he’s participated in. I’ve already recommended the 5/1 boost from both Betfair and Paddy Power in my betting preview for Di Maria to have two or more shots on target, however the 8/11 for one or more does make plenty of appeal when you consider he’s averaging over a shot on target per game in this season’s competition. To give a bit more weight to these prices here, bookmaker Coral have Di Maria at just 4/9 and 2/1 for one and two shots on target in this match.
Yussuf Poulson - Average shots on target per game this season: 0.4
1+ shots on target: 4/5
2+ shots on target: 9/2
3+ shots on target: 20/1
Poulson started the game against Atletico for Leipzig last week and is expected to keep his place in Nagelsmann’s side. He’s more of a work-horse than a prolific finisher and averages just 0.4 shots on target per game in the 29 appearances he has made this season. He loves to flick the ball on and give plenty of lay-offs but despite leading the line is the most profitable in this particular market.
Dani Olmo - Average shots on target per game this season: 0.7
1+ shots on target: Evens (1/1)
2+ shots on target: 11/2
3+ shots on target: 25/1
After arriving from Dinamo Zagreb in January, Dani Olmo has been playing just behind the main striker for Leipzig. He managed a goal against Atletico in the quarter’s, he’s averaging 0.7 on target per game and also managed three in six appearances for his former employers Zagreb in the earlier stage of this season’s tournament. He’s looked sharp in the latter stages of the season, including notching a brace against Hoffenhiem, and looks a very respectable price here to land a shot on target at evens (1/1) with Betfair and Paddy Power.
Marcel Sabitzer - Average shots on target per game this season: 0.8
1+ shots on target: 10/11
2+ shots on target: 5/1
3+ shots on target: 25/1
After Timo Werner and Patrik Schick, nobody has taken more shots per game for Leipzig than Marcel Sabitzer this season (2.2). It’s worth noting that when this market opened, he was 6/5 to register one or more shots on target but he’s already been cut into 10/11 after a little bit of support from punters. He’s had five shots on target in his last four Champions League matches, including two goals against Spurs back in early March.
PSG (22) may have scored six more goals than Leipzig (16) in this season’s Champions League but it’s worth noting that when it comes to shots taken per game, the Germans actually come out better.
Leipzig have taken 16.0 shots per game on average this season, in comparison to Paris Saint-Germain who have taken just 12.2 per game in the tournament. I believe this only gives more weight to the hypothesis that the value could well lie away from the PSG forwards in this game. I do still think PSG will come out on top in this semi-final, mainly due to the quality of Neymar and Mbappe but when it comes to the shots on target market I’d be looking away from the top two.
Using the Same Game Multi feature from Betfair allows you to combine players into multiples in this market and with relation to the figures I would be leaning towards a double which pays just under 3/1. We have three other football tips for the game that can be seen on tonight’s match preview.
Angel Di Maria & Dani Olmo both to have one or more shots on target - @ 3.94 - Betfair & Paddy Power