QPR vs Bournemouth Odds: Solanke to smash Rangers

After three weeks without a game, QPR get back in action on Monday evening as they host fellow promotion hopefuls Bournemouth. 

The R’s last game came at the start of the month, since then, fixtures against Sheffield United and Swansea have been called off due to a COVID outbreak in the hosts squad. This means that as we head into this match, Mark Warburton’s side trail the visitors by eight points but have two games in hand.

The visitors are on a winless streak that stretches back six games and almost two months. However, it is worth looking at the calibre of the sides they have dropped points against in that time. 

Their most recent defeats came against a revitalised Boro under the tutelage of new-manager Chris Wilder- though the deciding goal was a penalty- and the inform side in the division Blackburn. Rovers have taken 16 points from their last six and have only lost one of their last nine. They also got a valuable point at the Den, drew against a high flying Coventry and drew against table toppers Fulham. They also lost to a Derby side that has taken points from Fulham and West Brom, by a goal in a game that was separated by just 0.06 of an xG.  

Therefore, the bookies may have overestimated the magnitude of Bouremouth’s winless run and overpriced them at 6/4. 

If it was not for the outrageous form of a certain Serbian plying his trade at Craven Cottage, Dominic Solanke would be on course to become Championship top goalscorer, as he has 16 goals before the turn of the year. The Cherries talisman has bagged 43% of his sides goals, yet with him without a goal in 225 minutes of domestic action, he is amidst his longest barren spell since the season began. 

Solanke has scored twice as many goals as any else at the club, he also tops their charts for shots per game (3.4) and averages 1.32 shots on target per game. With 47% of his shots on target hitting the back of the net it is hard to see his barren run continue much longer. 

He has made 63 appearances in the Championship over the past two seasons and with 31 goals to his name has a goals per 90 average of 0.55. Therefore, anything over evens here would represent value, so the 15/8 available with Betfair is certainly worth taking. I would advise two points. 

Gary Cahill and Lloyd Kelly are expected to start at the heart of the Cherries defence. With and without this pair, Parker's sides defensive record has been like chalk and cheese this campaign.  

Staggeringly, 70% of the goals they have conceded this season have come in absence of Gary Cahill or Lloyd Kelly, or both. With the pair in defence, Bournemouth have played 13 domestic games, during which their side have kept more clean sheets (8), then they have conceded goals (6). Without that dynamic duo, the Cherries have shipped plenty, in the ten games without, the side has conceded 14 goals and kept just two clean sheets. 

The difference, in terms of goals per game, with and without the pair in the side is 1.02! 

With the pair expected to start here I think taking the visitors to win to nil at the prices available with Betvictor are certainly worth having a punt on which is why I would advise a point. 

A potential caveat to this angle is the fact that the hosts often bring goals to the party. In fact, prior to their most recent 0-2 loss vs Stoke at the start of the month, they had scored every single one of their 20 league games. It was also freakishly unlucky that they did not manage to beat Adam Davies as they had 24 shots, nine of which on target, generated an xG of 2.77, striker Charlie Austin also missed a penalty.

However, at the 18/5 available for Bournemouth to win to nil, I think it is worth overlooking this.

Using Bet365’s bet builder you can combine a Solanke goal with Bournemouth to win BTTS No and a Andre Dozzell card at odds of 40/1. Though it is worth noting that as I write not all bookies have priced up cards so it might be worth shopping around as I suspect Betfair will have this available a touch longer. 

Dozzell tops his sides charts for fouls per game (1.4) and has picked up four yellows in just  818 minutes of action. That is a card per 90 average of 0.44 so given his current form you could understand the bookies pricing him a lot shorter then he is for a card here. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.