Premier League Top Scorer Tips: Jimmy The Punt gives us five big each-way fancies for the season ahead
With the new Premier League season just over a week away, Jimmy The Punt has provided us with five each-way shouts that he likes the look of going into the new season. It’s worth remembering that this can often be a nice-way into the market away from the names at the head of the betting, with Danny Ings placing in 2020 at 200/1 and Sadio Mane being the joint winner at 50/1 in 2019.
Edinson Cavani @ 40/1 with Betvictor (1pt E/W)
In a survey conducted by The Athletic last summer, Manchester United’s acquisition of Edinson Cavani was dubbed the worst bit of transfer business that the English top flight saw that window. However, a few archer’s celebrations later and the manager, players and fans alike were all begging the Uruguayan bagsman to put pen to paper for at least one more year. With the dotted line signed, Cavani’s cult hero status is already confirmed at Old Trafford and it is only a matter of time until the Red Devils faithful will see him knelt in front of the Stretford End, drawing back the string of his imaginary weapon.
El Matador has found the net wherever he has gone; he has 376 career goals to his name- that is an average of 0.71 per 90 at club level- he has won the Capocannoniere award in Serie A and twice finished top goalscorer in France. However, despite his indisputable pedigree, Cavani’s time in the EPL did not get off to the best start. Quarantine rules and concern over his fitness meant that he did not find the net until matchweek eight and was not handed his first start until the end of November.
That being said, they say an arrow can only be shot by pulling it backwards and when he did get his chance he certainly took it. In the top flight, he had the fourth highest goals per 90 average (0.66) and fourth lowest goals per minutes played average (137). After finishing last campaign with a flurry of goals- ten in eleven appearances- momentum is already with him ahead of this campaign.
It is also worth noting that Ole Gunnar Solskjær has bolstered Man Utd’s attack with the acquisition of Jadon Sancho. This means that Cavani could be supported by a creative quartet- Sancho, Rashford, Pogba and Fernandes- that registered 35 assists and averaged 8.12 key passes per 90 between them domestically last season.
Therefore, with a pre-season under his belt, I fancy Cavani to be amongst the goals this campaign and at 40/1 to finish as the leagues top goalscorer I think it is a price worthy of a punt.
Son-Heung Min @ 40/1 with Betfred and Betway (1pt E/W)
Son-Heung Min recently signed a new, lucrative deal that will keep in North London until 2025 as one of the top earners at the club. This new contract is not only an apt reflection on his performances- that have improved year-on-year- but also an implication of how highly South Korea’s superstar now values himself.
It is easy to forget that Son’s time in England did not get off to the best start as he struggled to settle on and off the pitch. A rough first season is perhaps best epitomised by Spurs’ 5-1 defeat to Newcastle on the final day of the season. Son was particularly poor that day and Mauricio Pochettino did not appear to hold back on his criticism. The 29-year-old went on to miss the first three games of the following 16/17 campaign and speculation was rife that he was heading back to the Bundesliga.
Son’s fate looked sealed- and it could have been- but for South Korea’s international friendly schedule. Son’s nation did not have any games in the first international break of the season which allowed him to act upon Pochettino's advice; to knuckle down and work hard instead of running away from his problems. This ultimately proved to be the defining moment in his Spurs career, Poch started him in the next game and he scored twice and set the other one up.
Son went on to score 20 goals in all competitions that season, then 18 the following campaign, 20 in 18/19, 21 in 19/20 and 18 last season. According to his xG though, in his last two seasons he has really begun to show how clinical he is. Through-out the two, he has scored 27 goals, which is 12 more than his xG suggests he should have scored. This ability to defy the odds in front of goal might be a credit to his ability to finish chances with either foot. During his six seasons in the English top flight, he has scored 37% of his goals with his ‘weaker’ left foot. In fact, he is so good with both feet that his former teammate, Van der Vaart thinks the man himself doesn’t even know if he’s right or left-footed.
His efficiency in front of goal could also be down to his intelligent movement. He was signed as a winger and, on paper, often plays as one but in reality this is far from the truth. Under Jose Mourinho especially, Son operated more on the inside, lurking in the half-spaces between centre-backs and full-backs, and using his pace to devastating effect. This paid dividends as he notched up his highest EPL goals tally to date (17) last campaign.
The thing that really excites me about this bet though is how Son has thrived in Harry Kane’s absence in the past. With Kane pulling out all the stocks to force a move to Manchester it is looking more and more likely he will not be starting alongside Son this season.In 2018/19, Son played ten games without Kane and his record was staggering. He scored six goals over that spell as he averaged 0.63 per 90 and found the net every 141 minutes on average.
All things considered, I think Son is ready to become the main man for Tottenham this campaign- with or without Kane- and I think we will get some entertainment on backing E/W in the top scorer market.
Kelechi Inheanacho @ 50/1 with William Hill, Betvictor, Betfred and Betway (0.5pts E/W)
Since joining Manchester City back in 2015, Kelechi Inheanacho has always been used sparingly in the English top flight. This is best illustrated by the fact that he has only started 25% of the 216 domestic games that have taken place since he came to England.
He has often played the understudy to the likes of Sergio Agüero and Jamie Vardy, however, his clinical form last campaign simply became irresistible. The Nigerian striker bagged 12 goals in 25 EPL starts. That was a goals per90 average of 0.74 and a minutes per goal average of 121, with these only being bested by Gareth Bale, however, he played five games fewer!
Inheanacho had a shot accuracy of 64% and a goal conversion rate of 31% last season. This combined with his xG total of 9.05 could suggest that he hit a purple patch of form, the likes of which will be unsustainable to emulate this campaign. However, I think he just has a goalscoring knack. Call it striker's instinct or right place, right time, but whenever the ball finds his feet in a shooting position he does not often squander the chance to put the ball in the net.
My main concern with this bet is gametime, how often will he feature alongside or ahead of Jamie Vardy? Inheanacho’s gametime has been trending upward throughout his time in the Midlands though- 830 mins in 17/18, 941 mins in 18/19, 960 mins in 19/20 and 1,459 mins in 20/21- so I suspect he will get ample opportunity this campaign.
Michail Antonio @ 80/1 with Bet365 (0.5pts E/W)
Since making his semi-professional debut at 17-years-old for Tooting & Mitcham United back in 2007, Michail Antonio has risen through the leagues and improved year upon year. Although his raw ability and physicality have always been visible, it was not until the 2014/15 season until he really announced himself. For Forest that campaign, he bagged 14 goals and made 12 assists which was enough to win him the Player of the Season award and ultimately earn him a move to West Ham United the following season.
Antonio has since spent six seasons in the big smoke, finishing as the clubs top goalscorer in half of those, and with 46 top flight goals to his name, he is just one goal shy of equalling Paolo Di Canio’s all time Hammers EPL record of 47 goals.
Domestically, Antonio has found the net ten times for the past two seasons, however, according to his xG he could have scored over 27 goals in that period! Last campaign, he averaged 0.45 goals per 90 but his wasteful nature meant that he was four shy of his expected total.
Looking ahead to this campaign, he has traded the number 30 shirt for the nine and with the only recognised strikers in David Moyes’ squad being 19-year-old Armstrong Oko-Flex and Thierry Nevers, Antonio looks set to be the main man. The main concern with this angle is over Antonio’s fitness. His explosive style means that he has only made over 30 Premier League appearances once during his time at West Ham. However, if he can keep out of the treatment room, his underlying data from the last two campaigns are promising.
Neal Maupay @ 100/1 with Betvictor, Betfred and Betway (0.25pts E/W)
The poster boy for Graham Potter’s data darling's last campaign was Neal Maupay. According to the xPoints data, the Seagulls could have finished in fifth with more than 20 points then they actually secured. The main factor in this was their wasteful nature, they scored 40 times but could have had 14 more and the main culprit for squandering chances was the Frenchman uptop.
In the 2020/21 campaign Maupay missed eleven ‘big chances!’ By Opta’s definition this is a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score. He finished the season with eight goals but should have had at least five more according to his xG data- 5.77 to be exact- and this deficit was the second largest in the league behind Timo Werner (+7.43).
Whilst he received a lot of criticism from outside of the club, within it the only man with an opinion that matters is sticking by him. Brighton’s boss believes the best is yet to come from Maupay. Given that he made his professional debut at just 16-years-old, it is easy to forget that Maupay has only completed four season’s on English shores. He is about to embark on his third top flight season, he has had enough time to acclimatize and with support of his supremo behind him I think that it is about time that the averages balanced themselves out.
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