Premier League Relegation Odds: Joshua Jones fancies Southampton for the drop

That One St-Ings

It’s been a tumultuous few days for Southampton fans, who saw star striker Danny Ings make a shock switch to Aston Villa on Monday evening. The move seemingly came out of nowhere and, while some will argue getting £30m for an injury-prone 29-year-old whose hamstrings might as well be cheesestrings, losing a player that’s been your top league scorer for three consecutive years will always be a problem. That becomes even more worrying when you consider that they didn’t win any of the last eight games he missed, managing just seven goals in those games.

Ralph Hasenhuttl, who I rate highly as a manager, will want to spend the money quickly though - with Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham and Blackburn Rovers’ Adam Armstrong said to be on the ‘wanted’ list - given the season gets underway literally next week. While they are both fantastic options, it’s difficult to see whether they can offer the Saints the same as Ings has.

The England international, who might have fancied himself for a place at the Euros, bagged 12 Premier League goals in just 26 starts for his side last season. What’s most impressive is that he did so from an ‘expected goal’ rating of just 8.28. That over-performance of 3.72 goals is an indicator that Ings was scoring goals out of nothing and it’ll be hard for whoever they turn to replicate that; be that a new signing or a current player, like Scotland’s Che Adams - who scored nine times from 12.12xG, an underperformance of 3.12 goals.

Captain Fantastic

To add insult to injury, Southampton may also lose midfield leader James Ward-Prowse - having already said goodbye to club legend Ryan Bertrand. While they’ve replaced the left-back with Stade Brest’s Romain Perraud, their club captain is another story entirely. He was one of only two players that didn’t miss a single minute of Premier League football last season, and he’s the engine that makes them tick. Even without his off-the-ball work rate, he’s an important cog in the side purely for his dead ball delivery.

The Saints scored 20 of their 47 goals last season from dead ball situations, with the England midfielder chipping in with eight goals and seven assists. Losing him could see their odds plummet drastically.

They’re Bad Anyway

Even with Bertrand, Ings, and Ward-Prowse in the side, Southampton were bad. After January 4th, they were the worst side in the Premier League, and their plummet down the table was truly a sight to behold. After beating Sheffield United on December 13th, they were sitting pretty at 4th in the table. They beat Liverpool 1-0 on January 4th, and that was the last game they won until beating Sheffield United again three months later.

They picked up just 14 points in 21 games, with 14 losses, and were somewhat lucky they already had the points on the board to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap.

If they don’t make meaningful improvements before the transfer window closes they could be in for a very long year, and 5/1 for their poor form to continue throughout 2021/22 feels like a tidy bit of value.