Premier League Betting: Back Kane to be Top Scorer

The Premier League season gets underway on 5 August 2022, and we've asked our man @JimmyThePunt to provide us with his best bets for the forthcoming campaign. 

Top Promoted Side & Season Handicap

Recent history indicates that the most solid team defensively to gain promotion from the Championship goes on to have the best maiden season in the top flight. 

With that in mind, I think Nottingham Forest to be the top promoted side at 6/4 represents value and backing them to win the season handicap with a 51 point head start certainly has legs. 

Since the 2016/17 season, four of the five sides to get promoted from the Championship with the best defensive record have gone on to finish the highest of the three promoted sides that following season in the Premier League. 

Newcastle bounced straight back into the EPL as Champions after a one year absence in 2017, conceding the joint fewest goals (40) in the process. They went on to amass 44 points and a top half finish under the tutelage of Rafael Benítez the following campaign.

Since then, a star-studded Wolves side, Sheffield United and Leeds have all gone on to secure top half finishes- winning over 50 points- off of the back of promotions from the second tier in which they conceded the fewest goals.   

This suggests that sides with a strong defensive foundation adapt quicker in the top flight. In contrast, if a side's success in the Championship was built on possession based football or offensive prowess, they typically do not do as well in the EPL as more versatile teams. Norwich being prime examples of this.

This bodes well for Forest as in the 38 league games Steve Cooper oversaw last season, the Tricky Trees only conceded 28 goals, comfortably the best in the division over that period. 

Their results in the FA Cup not only show Coopers versatility but that they can literally go toe-to-toe with the best in the country. We saw three different approaches in the Reds 1-0 victory over Arsenal, their 4-1 thumping of Leicester and their underserved 0-1 defeat against Liverpool. 

Cooper is also tactically cute, capable of solving problems on a game-by-game basis. For example, in the Play-off Semi Finals against Sheffield United, isolating Jack Robinson vs Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson literally won them the games as it was the source of two of their three goals over the two legs. 

I think Forest and their supremo have been underestimated by the bookies this campaign and would not be surprised to see them thrive upon their eagerly anticipated return to the Premier League. 

Top Goalscorer 

Pep Guardiola’s rotation is the scourge of Premier League Fantasy Football enthusiasts across the country. The depth and quality of the squad at his disposal combined with his seemingly sporadic selection makes second guessing his ploys on a game-by-game basis borderline impossible. 

In the absence of a number nine last season the Spaniard developed a system that simply did not require one. Ahead of this campaign, he has acquired one of the hottest prodigies on the continent in Erling Haaland. 

The Nordic colossus bagged a hattrick on his Champions League debut for Red Bull Salzburg then repeated the feat during his domestic debut for Borussia Dortmund before going on to become the youngest and quickest to net 50 times in the Bundesliga. In fact, since his professional debut, he has averaged 1.06 goals per 90 which is why it is no surprise to see as short as 9/4 to top the EPL’s scoring charts this campaign. 

However, I think such a measly price gives us scope for value elsewhere, especially with some uncertainty. 

How will he adapt to the Guardiola regime? Regardless of the reputation or price tag, Man City’s signings under Pep rarely hit the ground running, Jack Grealish being the latest example of this. 

Will Haaland be ever present domestically for the Citizens during his first season? No player played every minute of EPL action last season for City, not least their attackers. Joao Cancelo played the most, featuring in 94% of their league minutes. Top goalscorer Kevin De Bruyne only played in 64%. 

It is also worth pointing out that despite netting 62 times and never falling outside the top four in the race for the Golden Boot during Pep Guardiola’s first three seasons at City, Sergio Agüero only started 78 of the 114 games in that time.  

With the above considered, I think it is worth taking the slightly inflated prices on some household names to win the Golden Boot this season. 

With 183 Premier League goals, only Agüero, Andy Cole, Wayne Rooney and Alan Shearer have scored more in EPL history than Harry Kane. At 28-years old and having averaged 22.5 goals over the past eight seasons, Tottenham’s talisman will have his sights set on besting Shearer’s tally of 260. 

Since the 2014/15 season, Kane has won three Golden Boots, finishing in the top two on five occasions and has never fallen out of the top six over that period. 

Last campaign he finished as the fourth highest scorer bagging 17 goals. This was his joint worst total in eight seasons, however, he massively underperformed his xG of 20.69, a tally only Salah could best. 

It is also worth pointing out that Kane was playing as a number ten under Nuno Espírito Santo, only finding the net once during his side's first ten games. It was not until Antonio Conte took the reins that Kane began to find his rhythm. In the 28 league games he played under the Italian supremo, Kane averaged an xG per 90 over 0.67 and only his strike partner Son Heung-Min scored more than Kane’s 16 goals from Conte’s first league game until the end of the season. 

A price of 7/1 to back a man that has finished in the top two in majority of the last eight seasons seems generous, especially considering his form under Conte. 

This selection is not rocket science. Cristiano Ronaldo has 497 career league goals. He has a goals per 90 average of 0.85 goals. He has scored over 20 goals in 63% of the 21 seasons since his debut, over 25 goals in 12, 30 plus in eight, four and over 40 goals on three occasions. 

He has won a golden boot, the Trofeo Pichichi trophy on three occasions and the Capocannoniere award during his last season in Italy. 

Last campaign, only Son and Mohammed Salah (23) bested his total of 18 goals. Though it is worth considering Ronaldo only started 27 games in a side that finished sixth. This season, Erik ten Hag has made it clear he wants him in his plans so CR7 looks set to have another season at Old Trafford. 

Oddswise, there is quite a gulf with Ronaldo as short as 10/1 with Boylesports, Betfair have him at 17/1, Betway at 20/1 with SBK the standout at 29/1. 

Most Assists

In a system without a striker, Kevin De Bruyne stepped up to the plate by racking up his highest domestic goal scoring tally of his career with 15. Subsequently, he only mustered eight assists which is poor by his standards, his second worst total since returning to England. 

Interesting though, only Trent Alexander-Arnold generated a greater xA then KDB’s total of 11.26 which suggests the fault may not lie entirely at his feet. In fact, with Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus, Phil Foden and Ilkay Gündogan all underperforming their xG, it is easy to see where the blame lies.  

The Belgian international clearly thrives alongside a number nine and with Haaland finally filling the void left by Agüero at City, De Bruyne looks set to reap the rewards of his creative quality.  

Since Dejan Kulusevski arrived in North London at the end of January, no player in the EPL racked up more assists than the Swede’s eight. The Juventus loanee struck up a formidable partnership with Kane and Son often operating on the right hand side of attack in a 3-4-3 formation. 

With Spurs adding strength and depth this summer in Richarlison and Ivan Perisic, Kulusevski will not be able to take his foot off the gas this campaign. With the same angle as short as 20/1 elsewhere, this angle should provide some interest for the season.