Premier League Betting: Back Kane to be Top Scorer

The Premier League season gets underway on 5 August 2022, and we've asked our man @JimmyThePunt to provide us with his best bets for the forthcoming campaign. 

Top Promoted Side & Season Handicap

Recent history indicates that the most solid team defensively to gain promotion from the Championship goes on to have the best maiden season in the top flight. 

With that in mind, I think Nottingham Forest to be the top promoted side at 6/4 represents value and backing them to win the season handicap with a 51 point head start certainly has legs. 

Since the 2016/17 season, four of the five sides to get promoted from the Championship with the best defensive record have gone on to finish the highest of the three promoted sides that following season in the Premier League. 

Newcastle bounced straight back into the EPL as Champions after a one year absence in 2017, conceding the joint fewest goals (40) in the process. They went on to amass 44 points and a top half finish under the tutelage of Rafael Benítez the following campaign.

Since then, a star-studded Wolves side, Sheffield United and Leeds have all gone on to secure top half finishes- winning over 50 points- off of the back of promotions from the second tier in which they conceded the fewest goals.   

This suggests that sides with a strong defensive foundation adapt quicker in the top flight. In contrast, if a side's success in the Championship was built on possession based football or offensive prowess, they typically do not do as well in the EPL as more versatile teams. Norwich being prime examples of this.

This bodes well for Forest as in the 38 league games Steve Cooper oversaw last season, the Tricky Trees only conceded 28 goals, comfortably the best in the division over that period. 

Their results in the FA Cup not only show Coopers versatility but that they can literally go toe-to-toe with the best in the country. We saw three different approaches in the Reds 1-0 victory over Arsenal, their 4-1 thumping of Leicester and their underserved 0-1 defeat against Liverpool. 

Cooper is also tactically cute, capable of solving problems on a game-by-game basis. For example, in the Play-off Semi Finals against Sheffield United, isolating Jack Robinson vs Djed Spence and Brennan Johnson literally won them the games as it was the source of two of their three goals over the two legs. 

I think Forest and their supremo have been underestimated by the bookies this campaign and would not be surprised to see them thrive upon their eagerly anticipated return to the Premier League. 

Top Goalscorer 

Pep Guardiola’s rotation is the scourge of Premier League Fantasy Football enthusiasts across the country. The depth and quality of the squad at his disposal combined with his seemingly sporadic selection makes second guessing his ploys on a game-by-game basis borderline impossible. 

In the absence of a number nine last season the Spaniard developed a system that simply did not require one. Ahead of this campaign, he has acquired one of the hottest prodigies on the continent in Erling Haaland. 

The Nordic colossus bagged a hattrick on his Champions League debut for Red Bull Salzburg then repeated the feat during his domestic debut for Borussia Dortmund before going on to become the youngest and quickest to net 50 times in the Bundesliga. In fact, since his professional debut, he has averaged 1.06 goals per 90 which is why it is no surprise to see as short as 9/4 to top the EPL’s scoring charts this campaign. 

However, I think such a measly price gives us scope for value elsewhere, especially with some uncertainty. 

How will he adapt to the Guardiola regime? Regardless of the reputation or price tag, Man City’s signings under Pep rarely hit the ground running, Jack Grealish being the latest example of this. 

Will Haaland be ever present domestically for the Citizens during his first season? No player played every minute of EPL action last season for City, not least their attackers. Joao Cancelo played the most, featuring in 94% of their league minutes. Top goalscorer Kevin De Bruyne only played in 64%. 

It is also worth pointing out that despite netting 62 times and never falling outside the top four in the race for the Golden Boot during Pep Guardiola’s first three seasons at City, Sergio Agüero only started 78 of the 114 games in that time.  

With the above considered, I think it is worth taking the slightly inflated prices on some household names to win the Golden Boot this season.