Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips: Two data-driven picks from the City Ground

Nottingham Forest have the chance to guarantee their place in next season’s Premier League when they face Chelsea at the City Ground on Saturday. Scott Thornton previews the action and provides us with his best bets. 

Chelsea are chasing a European place. They have spent large parts of the season in the bottom half of the table but things have slowly improved since the turn of the year. Mauricio Pochettino’s men are currently 7th in the league and he will want to see a strong finish from his team to quash speculation that the club will appoint a new manager in the summer.

Forest opted to make a managerial change midway through the season. Nuno Espirito Santo was drafted in to replace Steve Cooper. The club were in 17th place when the new man came in and they remain in that position now. However, they would have avoided relegation comfortably if they hadn't been hit with a four-point deduction for breaching the Premier League’s financial rules.

Our main bet builder for this match features two betting angles, the first of which is over 12.5 shots for Nottingham Forest.

Nottingham Forest faced Manchester City in their last game in front of their own fans and displayed plenty of attacking impetus. They managed to rack up a total of 14 shots against a side that concedes an average of just eight per game, the lowest in the Premier League. Nuno’s side lost that game 2-0 but I expect them to have more than their fair share of attempts in Saturday’s clash. 

Forest are averaging 13.38 shots per home game under Nuno. The former Wolves boss has been keen to employ a more direct approach.  They have had 14 or more shots in their last three games at the City Ground and I don’t expect that attacking urgency to subside in this crucial game against Chelsea.

The Blues are conceding an average of 14.34 shots per game in the Premier League this season. That’s the eighth most in the division. That number increases to 15.65 shots per game if we only include the stats from their matches on the road. 

The next betting angle is both teams to score. Nottingham Forest has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 1a Premier League matches. Over that period, Nuno’s side are averaging 1.18 goals and conceding 1.73. Both teams have scored in seven of their last 10 home matches in the league. 

Chelsea are also struggling to keep the opposition out. They have conceded in their last 14 Premier League away matches. Those games have seen an average of four goals per game, 1.79 for Pochettino’s side and 2.21 for the opposition.

Our longer odds bet features the same angles as the main bet with an increased shot line for Nottingham Forest. We are also backing over four cards in the match.

Chelsea’s matches have seen the most cards in the Premier League. Forest matches have seen the seventh most and there were seven cards in the match when these sides met at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season.