Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction: Jacob Murphy Betting Tip, Team News & More
Newcastle face Chelsea in what promises to be a thrilling Premier League showdown at St James’ Park on Sunday lunchtime, live on TNT Sports 1, TNT Sports Ultimate and Discovery+ at 12pm.
Oli Nixon previews the game and provides his best bets.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Prediction
Newcastle vs Chelsea Preview
With these sides locked on 63 points in 4th and 5th place in the Premier League table, Newcastle and Chelsea are in pole position to secure Champions League qualification and so this is perhaps the biggest game of the weekend.
Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa are both poised to capitalise on whichever side drops points as they sit within three points of the top five and so the result on Sunday lunchtime will go a long way to deciding which teams will mix it with Europe’s elite next season.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Betting Tips
Still going a little under the radar, Jacob Murphy is enjoying his best ever Premier League season with 19 goal contributions.
The winger has averaged 1.75 shots per 90 this season and has been especially threatening at St James’ Park where that number jumps to 2.48. Murphy scored off the bench in the reverse fixture and will almost certainly start on Sunday given his form.
Key to this bet is that bet365’s ‘Sub On, Play On’ offer allows this bet to carry over to Murphy’s replacement should he be replaced and in recent weeks, that has been Anthony Gordon who averages 2.27 shots per 90. Factoring in his substitute when taken off, this bet has landed in 13 of Murphy’s last 15 starts on home soil and so it looks a great price.
With so much on the line, we can expect a combative affair and perhaps even more so when we consider that these are the third and fourth most fouled sides in the Premier League.
The teams have met twice already this season and this bet would have landed on both occasions where the free kick counts have been 15-13 and 15-17.
Newcastle’s home games have seen them average 13 free kicks and give away 13.22 and both sides have had at least 12 in five of the last eight games on Tyneside. Chelsea’s trips on the road average over 27 free kicks with them taking 15.11 per game and their opponents 12.16 and this bet landing in four of their last five and so every data metric suggests we can expect plenty of infringements.
Central to any bet which requires plenty of free kicks is the man in the middle and in John Brooks, we have a referee who averages 22.67 fouls per game in the Premier League this season.
His only game in charge at St James’ Park this season saw him award 34 free kicks, 16 to the hosts and 18 to their opponents and so he’s certainly not afraid to assert himself, something he may well have to do considering these teams records and what’s at stake.
Newcastle vs Chelsea Team News
Newcastle are likely to be without key midfielder Joelinton, while Fabian Schar and Kieran Trippier face late fitness tests.
Chelsea will be without Wesley Fofana and Chistopher Nkunku.
The lineups for Newcastle vs Chelsea will be displayed below approximately one hour before kick-off.
| # | Starting XI | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nicholas David Pope | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Daniel Johnson Burn | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Sven Adriaan Botman | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Fabian Lukas Schär | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 | Valentino Francisco Livramento | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Sandro Tonali | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 39 | Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Jacob Kai Murphy | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 10 | Anthony Michael Gordon | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Harvey Lewis Barnes | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Alexander Isak | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Substitutes | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Dúbravka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Emil Henry Kristoffer Krafth | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 6 | Jamaal Lascelles | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Sean David Longstaff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 67 | Lewis Miley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 78 | Sean Thoms Neave | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | William Idamudia Daugaard Osula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | John Thomas Gordon Ruddy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Callum Eddie Graham Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Starting XI | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert Lynch Sánchez | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Marc Cucurella Saseta | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | Levi Lemar Samuels Colwill | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 23 | Trevoh Thomas Chalobah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | Moisés Isaac Caicedo Corozo | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Enzo Jeremías Fernández | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 45 | Roméo Lavia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Chukwunonso Tristan Madueke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Cole Jermaine Palmer | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Pedro Lomba Neto | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | Nicolas Jackson | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| # | Substitutes | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34 | Joshua Kofi Acheampong | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Benoît Ntambue Badiashile Mukinayi Baya | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Kiernan Frank Dewsbury-Hall | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 32 | Tyrique George | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Malo Gusto | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Reece James | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Filip Jörgensen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Abdul-Nasir Oluwatosin Oluwadoyinsolami Adarabioyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | Jadon Malik Sancho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Newcastle vs Chelsea Odds
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