Newcastle vs. Nottingham Forest Betting Tips: Back Bruno to hit the target in season opener

Newcastle take on Nottingham Forest at St James’ Park on Saturday afternoon and we’ve got our resident punter @AnthonyEadson on hand to provide us with two tips for the game that he likes the look of. 

It will be fascinating to see how the season ahead pans out for Newcastle in their first full campaign under their new owners. Eddie Howe did a tremendous job after taking over at the back end of 2021 and although Newcastle finished 11th, a massive accolade based on their first half of the season, in 2022 only Liverpool (51), Manchester City (43), and Tottenham (41), picked up more points than the Magpies (38). 

Nottingham Forest will play their first top-flight game in 23 years when they take to the field at 3pm on Saturday. It’s been a long road back for the Tricky Trees, with Steve Cooper deserving a large amount of kudos for his achievements already. The Premier League though represents a whole new level of challenge for Cooper and the club, but Forest have made a plethora of signings to help them survive in one of the most ruthless leagues on the planet. 

New arrivals Jesse Lingard, Dean Henderson and Taiwon Awoniyi are all expected to make their debut, although new signing Omar Richards is sidelined through injury. Ryan Yates and Sam Surridge are both a doubt for the trip to the North East, with Jack Colback ready to step in if called upon.

Eddie Howe may also hand debuts to one of his new recruits in Nick Pope who arrived from Burnley in the summer. Jonjo Shelvey is injured and will miss the season opener, with Javier Manquillo also a doubt for the Toon. 

The bookmakers are predicting Newcastle will get three points on the board on Saturday and have them at just 8/13 to win the match. The draw is currently being offered at 11/4 with a win for the visitors priced at 5/1. 

The first selection I’m touting in this match comes from the shots on target market and is a selection I put up a few times towards the very end of last season. The bet in question is for Bruno Guimaraes to have Over 0.5 shots on target in the match, available at 6/5 with bet365. 

Since joining Newcastle in January, the Brazilian has started 11 Premier League matches and in that period has recorded 11 shots on target. This immediately gives appeal to the 6/5 on offer for him to record just one on target against a newly promoted club, with this a selection that landed in six of his final seven games last season.

If you are wondering why I’m taking Bruno in the shots on target market and not just shots, well here’s why. In his 11 league starts last season, Guimaraes hit the target with an impressive 57.8% of his attempts. He cleared the 1+ shot on target in six of his last seven matches, while the 2+ shots was only cleared in three of his last seven. With this in mind I’ve taken a lean towards the 6/5 for 1+ shot on target, rather than the 11/10 on offer for 2+ shots with bet365. 

The second pick I’ve decided to have a few quid on at St James Park is for Joelinton to be carded in the match. A player who I feel is overlooked in this market at times and could still be a bigger price than what he should be based on him converting from a forward into a midfielder last season. 

Joelinton ranked 2nd in the entire league for the most fouls committed last season (64), with only Conor Gallagher having a higher total (65). If Joelinton had played the full campaign, I’d imagine he would have topped that list by quite some distance as seven of his eight yellow cards came when playing in midfield. The 25-year-old committed 3+ fouls in 11 different matches last season and another positive is that he was carded in five of his 16 league starts at St James Park in 2021/2022. With this in mind, the 9/2 on show with Paddy Power looks a very backable price with the majority of the other big firms going around 3/1. 

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