Netherlands v Italy Tips: Back Van Dijk to hit the target in Amsterdam

The Netherlands kicked off their Nations League campaign with a 1-0 win over Poland on Friday evening and tonight they host the Italians in Amsterdam. Roberto Mancini’s side could only manage a draw in their opening fixture against Bosnia and will be looking to get back to winning ways after ten consecutive victories before the weekend.

Having a look at the prices for the match result and the hosts have been made the 11/8 favourites to win with BetVictor with the draw being able to be backed at 9/4. The Italian’s are currently best priced with bet365 who go 5/2, giving the visitors a 29% implied chance of winning.

Giorgio Chiellini was left out of Friday night’s game against Bosnia and is expected to return to the starting lineup this evening. The Netherlands have no fresh injury concerns after their win against Poland, however Luuk De Jong could potentially come up for Quincy Promes which could see Memphis Depay play in a wider position.

I’ve picked out three football tips I like the look of for this game which on paper looks like it should be a good watch. 

Match to be a draw - 1pt @ 23/10 bet365, betfair exchange

Virgil Van Dijk 1+ shot on target - 1pt @ 11/4 Skybet, 5/2 betfair 

Depay & Insigne 1+ shot on target, De Roon & Bonucci to be carded - 0.25pts @ 35/1 Paddy Power

For my first selection over in Amsterdam this evening I'm backing a stalemate, with the match to be a draw priced at 23/10 with both bet365 and on the Betfair exchange. We have two sides here who have been in good form over the last 18 months; the Netherlands are unbeaten in their last seven, winning six of those games, including a 4-2 win over Germany. 

Italy have also enjoyed an impressive run of results. Unbeaten in their last 15, and before their 1-1 draw with Bosnia on Friday, they were enjoying a streak of ten consecutive victories. 

Roberto Mancni’s side have kept nine clean sheets in their last 14 games and I think they will be a match for the hosts this evening. I feel both of these sides have been heading in the right direction to be considered serious contenders for major tournaments in the next couple of years,  and the draw looks the correct selection for me here when taking into consideration the prices.

Next up I’m having a punt on Virgil Van Dijk to register one or more shots on target, available at 11/4 with SkyBet or 5/2 with betfair. This colossus of a man needs no introduction, he’s been monumental in the Premier League over the last few seasons and has now cemented himself as one of the best defenders in world football.

Over the past two seasons Virgil has managed a total of 26 shots on target for Liverpool in the Premier League. His brute strength and physicality makes him a threat from set-piece situations and he’s scored four goals in the last two years for his country. At 11/4 I like the look of him to land a shot on target against the Azzuri tonight. It may be worth shopping around a little when it comes to price on this one as at the time of writing SkyBet have this selection at 11/4, while Betfair go just shorter at 5/2.

Finally I’ve picked out something for the optimists out there. At 35/1 with Paddy Power I’ve opted for Memphis Depay and Lorenzo Insigne to have one or more shots on target with Marten De Roon and Leonardo Bonucci to be carded.

Memphis Depay was top of the list when it came to shots on target for Lyon last season, averaging 1.6 per game. He’s been linked with a move to Barcelona in the last few days and with him being on set-pieces I’m adding him into this Same Game Multi.

In Friday’s game against Bosnia, Insigne took five shots in total - the most of anyone in the side. The 29 year-old averaged an impressive 1.3 shots on target per game for Napoli during the last Serie A campaign and with plenty of space expected from the way these two sides play, I’m fancying him to land another on target here.

Moving onto the cards and I’ve picked out a player from each side with first up Marten De Roon for the Netherlands. The former Middlesbrough man received an impressive 15 yellow cards for Atalanta in Serie A and the Champions League last season. He was booked in Friday’s game with Poland and he’s the one I want onside here to pick up a caution for the hosts.

Rounding off this four-pronged-punt is Juventus’ centre-back Leonardo Bonucci to be carded. Priced at 4/1 as a single with Betfair and Paddy Power, I think the veteran looks a very reasonable price to pick up a caution when you consider he was booked ten times in Serie A last term. He’s not getting any quicker and I think the Dutch attack of Depay, Bergwijn and Promes could cause him problems.

The game can be seen live on the Sky Sports Premier League channel kicking off at 19:45. As always please enjoy the game and always remember to gamble responsibly. Best of luck to those following.