Middlesbrough vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips: Follow these two bets for Tuesday's EFL Cup semi-final first leg

Two of this season's four EFL Cup semi-finalists face off in Tuesday's first leg as Middlesbrough welcome Chelsea to the Riverside Stadium. Scott Thornton is the man responsible for crunching the numbers and finding value in the betting markets. This is where his mind is at...

Chelsea have a great opportunity to make it to the League Cup final this season. However, Middlesbrough are a capable side under Michael Carrick and this one isn’t a foregone conclusion. Boro will be hoping for a positive result in their first leg to ease the pressure ahead of the trip to Stamford Bridge.

Middlesbrough are firmly in midtable in the Championship but they are just six points outside of the playoffs. They put together a monumental run of wins last season when Michael Carrick took charge but were unable to secure promotion. This season has been a little more difficult. They lost some crucial players in the summer transfer window and it has certainly had an impact on performance.

Mauricio Pochettino has struggled to get a tune out of Chelsea’s assortment of stars this season. The former Tottenham boss was drafted in to develop this young team and while there have been some promising signs, he hasn’t hit the ground running. Patience will be required as Chelsea attempt to usher in a new era and ending the club’s longest trophy drought since before 2003 would be a huge boost.

Both sides have a plethora of injuries to contend with ahead of this clash. Darragh Lenihan, Marcus Forss, Tommy Smith and Paddy McNair are all ruled out for Boro. Sam Silvera, Riley McGree and Seny Dieng are also on international duty.

Chelsea haven’t had a clean bill of health since Pochettino arrived. Robert Sanchez is missing in the net. Marc Cucurella, Wesley Fofana, Trevoh Chalobah and Reece James complete the injury list in the defensive third. Romeo Lavia is also ruled out. Ben Chilwell and Christopher are unlikely to feature.

The first of the angles in our main bet builder for Middlesbrough vs Chelsea is for there to be under 35.5 throws in the match.

Middlesbrough are accomplished in possession under Carrick. They won’t be afraid to knock the ball around in a composed manner and they won’t rely on chaotic long balls to pose a threat against an opponent who plays in the league above. As a result, we should see fewer throws in this one.

Boro’s matches are averaging the 3rd fewest throws in the Championship. The second tier averages just under 6 more throws per game than the Premier League so expect there to be fewer here. There were just 20 throws when Carrick’s side took on top-flight opposition in the FA Cup last weekend.

Pochettino also likes his side to be patient with the ball and their away matches this season have seen an average of 34 throws per game.

The next leg of this bet builder is for there to be over 11.5 goal kicks in the match. There were 14 when these sides met in the FA Cup in 2022 and the more recent data suggests we should see a few once again.

Middlesbrough will have a go in this one as they attempt to harness the home support and turn that energy into a positive result. Their home matches across all competitions in this campaign have averaged 13.5 goal kicks per game but we could see even more in this cup tie.

Chelsea’s away matches are averaging 14.4. Pochettino’s side had 13 in their last away match against Luton and are averaging 7.4 per match on the road.

Our longer odds bet uses the same betting angles as the main bet with an increased goal kicks line and a decreased throw-ins line.

This throws line landed with ease in Boro’s recent home match against Aston Villa and we could see a showcase of possession play once again. The higher goal kick line also looks achievable, especially if one of the sides falls behind early on.