Liverpool vs Newcastle Prediction, Lineups and Odds: 9/1 double for the Carabao Cup Final

Liverpool go up against Newcastle in the Carabao Cup Final this Sunday at the Wembley Stadium in London, live at 4.30pm on ITV1 and Sky Sports.

Tipster Wizard has analysed the game and picked out his best bets.

Arne Slot’s men were knocked out of the Champions League on penalties by PSG in midweek, after a gruelling 120 minutes of competitive football between the two sides.

As a result, Liverpool now have just the domestic double to play for in Arne Slot’s first season in charge. Having won a record 10 League cups historically, they will be heading to Wembley to extend that record and win their 11th EFL Cup against Newcastle United.

As for Newcastle United, they will be hoping to win their first piece of silverware since the 1954/55 FA Cup. Having lost three of their last five matches, they are not in the best of form but will have the advantage of fresh legs as Liverpool players played the full 90 minutes against PSG on Wednesday.

They will be without their star forward Anthony Gordon and fullback Lewis Hall for this crucial cup final which makes it an ever bigger challenge but they will be fully motivated to provide Liverpool a stern test and pull off an upset.

These two sides have played each other twice in the Premier League this season, with a thrilling 3-3 draw in the first leg at St James’ Park and a comfortable 2-0 win for Liverpool at Anfield.

In recent seasons, Liverpool have dominated the head to head record against Newcastle, winning seven of their last eight meetings and they will hope to forget their Champions League elimination and add another piece of silverware in their trophy cabinet on Sunday.

League Cup finals have generally been low scoring historically as teams approaching it cautiously with players afraid to make defensive mistakes. The last four EFL Cup finals have seen scorelines of 0-0, 2-0, 0-0 and 1-0. The “Under 3.0 Goal Line” selection would have won in seven, refunded our stakes in two and lost just once in the 2017 Cup final.

Adding to the historical data, we have a Liverpool side who have just played 120 minutes against PSG in midweek, failing to score a single goal and players were understandably exhausted by the end of penalties. This bet has landed in four of Liverpool’s last five games in all competitions while Newcastle have seen this bet land in their last three consecutive games in all competitions.

Newcastle are also missing a key component of their attack in Anthony Gordon who has scored six goals and provided five assists this season in the Premier League. They have struggled in front of goal in recent weeks, scoring just two goals across their last three games in all competitions and I expect another cagey final which could potentially go into extra-time.

We have a card happy referee John Brooks in charge of this final who is dishing out over five cards per game on average this season. He has been in charge of three games in this competition this season, and the card counts of those three games have been: 7, 6 and 4 so I am going to focus on a player from each side who is most likely to get cautioned.

Joelinton has been booked in seven of his last 13 appearances in all competitions for Newcastle, averaging the most fouls per game (2.1) for them as well. He is their most booked player in the league this season with nine yellow cards to his name and loves a cynical foul which could get his name into the referee’s book.

As for Alexis Mac Allister, he is also averaging the most fouls per game (1.9) for Liverpool this season and is their second most booked player after Darwin Nunez. He was booked for a cynical foul against PSG in midweek and considering the significance of the occasion, I expect him to get stuck in and get booked for stopping one of Newcastle’s counter attacks.

Combining these two selections gives us a cracking long shot at 9/1 that we will take with a small 0.25pt stake.

Liverpool vs Newcastle Lineups

The starting lineups for Liverpool vs Newcastle will be displayed in the graphic below once the team news has been announced.

Liverpool vs Newcastle Team News

• Joe Gomez & Conor Bradley are out for Liverpool while Trent Alexander-Arnold & Ibrahima Konate are doubtful.
• Sven Botman, Jamaal Lascelles, Lewis Hall & Anthony Gordon are out for Newcastle.