Liverpool vs Chelsea Prediction and Betting Tips: Two stats-based picks from Anfield
Posted: 10:23 Tuesday 30th January 2024
Liverpool will have the backing of the Anfield faithful as they host Chelsea on Wednesday night. Scott Thornton is in charge of our match preview for the 8:15pm kick-off and has two stats-based selections for you to follow.
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The Reds are in the driving seat in the race for the Premier League title at this stage but there is still plenty of football to be played. Jurgen Klopp made the shocking announcement that he is set to depart the club at the end of the season. To say the German is hugely popular in the city would be putting it lightly. He steered Liverpool to their first-ever Premier League title in 2020 but would love to replicate that success this season with the supporters in the stadium.
Chelsea are enduring their longest trophy drought since the club was bought by Roman Abramovich in 2003. The new owners are yet to taste success at the club but they’ll have the opportunity to do just that next month. This match against Liverpool could be seen as a dress rehearsal for next month's EFL Cup final for Chelsea.
Team News
Liverpool will be without Mo Salah, Joel Matip, Thiago, Kostas Tsimikas who are all out injured. Wataru Endo remains away on international duty.
For Chelsea, Wesley Fofana, Reece James, Marc Cucurella, Romeo Lavia, and Trevoh Chalobah are all confirmed absentees. Doubts remain over the fitness of Levi Colwill, Christopher Nkunku and Malo Gusto.
Liverpool vs Chelsea Tips
Over 3.5 Match Offsides & Liverpool To Win
Both of these managers have a preference of playing a high defensive line to restrict their opponent's ability to play out from the back. Liverpool allow the fewest opposition passes per defensive action in the division, while Chelsea allow the 3rd fewest. This desire to compress the pitch lends itself nicely to catching the opponents offside, which leads us to our first bet.
I’m betting over 3.5 offsides in the match with Bet 365 at odds of 9/10. These sides drew 1-1 earlier in the season and both had goals ruled out by extremely marginal offside calls. Neither defence was afraid to step up and take a risk and this is reflected in the offside numbers. The match saw eight altogether; three for Chelsea and five for Liverpool.
Liverpool’s home matches this season have seen an average of 4.2 offsides. Chelsea’s Premier League matches on the road have seen 4.6 offsides on average.
We are combining the offsides bet with Liverpool to win. Klopp’s side are fantastic at Anfield. They have played 48 home matches in the league since the start of the 21/22 season and have lost just once. Those games have seen them average 2.52 goals and their attack is as menacing as ever this season.
Chelsea won their last league away match against Luton but before that they lost four on the bounce. They have lost over half of their Premier League away matches since the Todd Boehly’s consortium took over.
Over 5.5 Match Offsides, Liverpool To Win & Both Teams To Receive 2+ Cards
Our longshot uses the same angles as our main bet with an increased offsides line. We are also adding both teams to pick up at least two cards.
There were 6 offsides when these sides last squared off at Anfield and there have been over 5.5 offsides in the last three head-to-heads.
Both sides picked up three yellow cards each in the reverse fixture and we could see a feisty affair on Wednesday. Liverpool’s last three league matches at Anfield have seen both teams pick up at least two cards. Six of Chelsea’s last seven away matches in the Premier League have also seen this angle win.
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