Liverpool v Burnley Prediction: Back the bookings Anfield

Saturday afternoons top flight action commences at Anfield as Liverpool host Burnley. 

The bookies strongly fancy the hosts here in front of a packed crowd for the first time in over a season, pricing them at 17/100 to win. However, Burnley have upset the apple cart several times during their recent trips to Merseyside, most notably the 1-0 win on their last visit, as Liverpool have been victorious in one of the last four occasions that Sean Dyche’s men have come to town. 

In terms of team news, there has been a lot of speculation as to who will start in midfield for the Reds. James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keïta made up the three on opening day, however, with a huge fixture against Chelsea on the horizon I suspect Jurgen Klopp will be keen to give minutes to his first choice options. Fabinho does not play due to the sad death of his father.

As for Burnley, Ashley Barnes, Matej Vydra and Josh Brownhill are pushing for starts after last weekend's defeat to Brighton.

In a staggering change of events on opening day, Brighton shithoused a result against Sean Dyche’s Burnley off all teams! 

On that Saturday afternoon at Turf Moor, Burnley scored after two minutes and racked up an xG of 1.99, however, two late goals courtesy of Neal Maupay and Mac Allister ensured that it would be Brighton heading back down south with the lion's share of the spoils. Although they do not have points to show for their endeavour, Dyche took the positives from that game. As the xG, the fact that they scored and registered 14 shots shows, Burnley were an attacking threat and deserved more from on opening day. 

Burnley have scored in their last five trips to Anfield, they won 1-0 when they last visited and drew 1-1 the time before. On an emotional note, it is also worth noting that things got pretty heated between Jurgen Klopp and Dyche in that most recent fixture at Anfield with Dyche coming out after and saying something along the lines of ‘are Burnley not allowed the win here?’ I think this shows just how much he relishes being the underdog and just how well he plays on this siege mentality. Therefore, I suspect he will get his squad up for this fixture- especially given the result last week- which is why I fancy them to get on the scoresheet. 

Burnley can also draw confidence from the fact that Norwich racked up an xG of 1.81 in their defeat against Liverpool last week. So, all things considered, I think this is a chunky price.

Given the refereeing appointment you simply cannot ignore cards here as infamous whistle blower Mike Dean takes charge. Dean brandished an average of 3.64Y and 0.32R per game last campaign and picked up where he left off last weekend as he dealt four bookings as Watford beat Aston Villa. 

Interestingly, there has only been one card in these sides' last three head to heads at Turf Moor, however, the fixtures at Anfield average 2.66 per game. Fabinho has been booked in two of those most recent three games and I fancy him to add to his tally here. 

I think the combination of Dean and fans, laced with Dyche and Klopp's spicy relationship, should make for a tasty game.

Harvey Elliot averaged a card every 0.10 90 minutes played last season in the Championship for Blackburn. However, the majority of that domestic campaign was spent playing on the right of a front three where he was not really in the thick of the physical action. This afternoon at a packed Anfield, he starts in the middle of the park against a rough and tumble Sean Dyche side where not only his physicality will be tested but his mental resolve.

Given his card p90 average, his price of 9/1 with Bet365 is perfectly apt, however I do not think this takes into account the occasion - in regards to the return of the fans and the emotional sentiment for the player - and the referee, Mike Dean. 

Fabinho and Joel Matip both got their names taken during that 1-0 victory for Burnley at Anfield and coincidently Mike Dean was the referee on that day. You can combine this pair to repeat this feat this weekend at 45/1 using bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’ which I think is worthy of a pun. 

That being said, there is too much uncertainty surrounding this bet to play it on its own so I have combined with Matip top be carded as well at 85/1 with Bet365.

Interestingly, both of the right sided centre backs - Matip and Joe Gomez - have been booked for Liverpool against Burnley at Anfield in Dyche’s men two most recent visits. The Clarets are a notoriously physical side and this physicality is perhaps best epitomised by their strikers, with the likes of Ashley Barnes and Chris Wood both being synonymous with Burnley Football Club. Therefore, I expect them to cause some issues for Matip and think backing him to be carded in a chunky double will provide some interest. 

Best of luck if you are lacking any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.