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Liverpool v Arsenal Tips: Milner fancied to collect 91st yellow card

Liverpool v Arsenal Tips:  James Milner features in two of our League Cup bets
Liverpool v Arsenal Tips: James Milner features in two of our League Cup bets

Thursday evening’s are not known for being the most lively nights for football in the UK but I’m quietly confident we are in for a good game between Liverpool and Arsenal at Anfield tonight. It will be the second time in four days that these two have faced each other on Merseyside with the hosts coming out the 3-1 winners on Monday.

There’s a place in the Carabao Cup quarter-finals up for grabs on Thursday, however both managers are expected to make wholesale changes at this early stage of the season. Diogo Jota is expected to make his full debut for Liverpool after coming on as a substitute and scoring earlier in the week. Thiago Alcantara has tested positive for Covid-19 and will not feature, although there could be starts for James Milner, Neco Williams, Takumi Minamino plus Adrian in goal. 

Mikel Arteta will most likely bring in Nicholas Pepe and Eddie Nketiah in attack for the Gunners. Pablo Mari, Gabriel Martinelli, Callum Chambers all remain on the treatment table and will not feature in any form.

Having a look at the prices for the game, Liverpool have been made the 4/5 favourites to win the game - an implied probability of 56%. Mikel Arteta started in the middle of the park for Arsenal the last time they won at Anfield back in 2012, but a win for his side on Thursday is available at 3/1 with the draw being offered at 11/4.

There’s a flurry of football tips available on for Thursday’s football and I’ve picked out three selections for Liverpool vs Arsenal which I like the look of. 

Bukayo Saka 1+ shot on target - 1pt @ 11/4 Paddy Power / Betfair

James Milner to be carded - 1pt @ 4/1 Paddy Power / Betfair

Nketiah & Minamino 1+ shot on target, Milner & Luiz to be carded - 0.25pts @ 50/1 Paddy Power

Liverpool v Arsenal EFL Cup Tip #1
Bukayo Saka 1+ shot on target
Saka registered two or more shots on target three times last season In two of his last six games has he managed a shot on target and this should be a wide open game against Liverpool after last season's 5-5 draw in the Carabao Cup Same selection 5/4 with Skybet
Odds correct as of 2020-10-01 12:40 Odds subject to change.

The first of three bets comes from the shots on target market, where I’m backing Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka to have one or more on target, priced at 11/4 with both Betfair and Paddy Power. The 19-year-old made the most of his opportunities he was given in the first team in the 2019/20 season and showed fantastic ability for a young man of his age. I’m expecting him to have another positive progressive season, whether that be as a left wing-back, a left midfielder or as part of a front-three.

Saka has registered a shot on target twice in his last six starts and over the course of last season he registered two or more on three occasions. He’s priced at 20/1 (Betfair/ Paddy Power) to have two or more against Liverpool but I think that’s a bit of an ask against strong opposition. With this being the League Cup I do see it being a very wide open game though. Both sides will have players auditioning for roles in the first-eleven, and after last season’s 5-5 draw, there could be fireworks. 

I’m expecting Saka to start for the Gunners this evening and having a look at the prices in the shots on target market, I can see Skybet have the youngster priced at 5/4 to register one or more on target with 2+ being offered at 6/1. That's a considerable difference between those and the 11/4 and 20/1 on offer from Betfair / Paddy Power. I’ll be having a small play on Saka to land one or more shots between the sticks at 11/4.

Liverpool v Arsenal EFL Cup Tip #2
James Milner to be carded
Milner has picked up 90 yellow cards in his career No player at Liverpool had a higher average yellow cards per 90 mins figure than Milner last season (0.4)    
Odds correct as of 2020-10-01 12:55 Odds subject to change.

James Milner should come into the starting line-up for the newly crowned Premier League Champions on Thursday. I’m backing the 34-year-old to pick up the 91st yellow card of his club career priced at 4/1, again available with either Betfair or Paddy Power.

Lose Yourself by Eminem was number one in the charts when James Milner made his Premier League debut back in November 2002. The versatile veteran has been one of the finest servants of the Premier League era winning the title with Manchester City and now Liverpool. However it’s the to be carded market where I’m focusing my attention on Thursday.

More than half of Milner’s Premier League appearances in 2019/20 came as a substitute. When looking at the numbers for the average number of yellow cards per 90 mins in 2019/20, Milner comes out with the highest of any Liverpool player, picking up 0.4 per 90. He doesn’t mind breaking up play and Arsenal’s second string have plenty of pace to stretch the defence. Nicholas Pepe could be the forward who Milner is marking this evening and with Ainsley-Maitland Niles on the overlap from right-wing I think Milner could be in trouble. I’ve taken the 4/1 which is the best price currently available with Betfair or Paddy Power.

Premier League Top 4 Odds
Liverpool v Arsenal EFL Cup Tip #3
Nketiah & Minamino 1+ shot on target, Milner & Luiz to be carded
Eddie Nketiah has registered at least one shot on target in his last four starts for Arsenal Takumi Minamino scored twice in the Carabao Cup last week. He has managed two shots on target in the last three games where he has played over 60 minutes No player at Liverpool averaged more yellow cards per 90 minutes than James Milner last season (0.4) David Luiz picked up seven cards last season in the PL for Arsenal
Odds correct as of 2020-10-01 12:50 Odds subject to change.

Moving onto my longshot for the evening and at 50/1 I’ve opted for Takumi Minamino and Eddie Nketiah to have one or more shots on target with both David Luiz and James Milner to be carded.

Takumi Minamino is the first name in this Same Game Multi and I’m backing him to have one or more shots on target. The 25-year-old was on the scoresheet twice in the Carabao Cup win over Lincoln last week scoring with both his shots on target. Having a look into Minamino’s recent form with Liverpool and in the last three games where the Japanese star has played over 60 minutes of the 90, he has registered two shots on target every time.

I think Eddie Nketiah will start in the middle of three forwards for Arsenal at Anfield on Thursday and he’s next in to have a shot on target. On the last four occasions that the striker has started for Arsenal he has registered one more shots on target and I see him doing so in an open Carabao Cup tie.

The first of two players to be carded that I’ve opted for is James Milner of Liverpool. I’ve already mentioned how no Liverpool player averaged more yellow cards per 90 minutes than James Milner last season and I can’t resist putting him in at the price of 7/2.

David Luiz is no stranger to a yellow card or a calamitous error. He’s one of football’s great enigma’s at times. He can produce world beating performances one minute and be rolling his eyes walking back to the centre-circle after a clumsy mistake the next. The Brazilian picked up five yellow and two red cards last season in the Premier League and hopefully he can collect another off Kevin Friend to bring in this longshot.

For those of you wanting to watch the game, you can tune in at 19:45 live on Sky Sports. Good luck to anyone following Thursday’s selections, Please gamble responsibly.

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