Liverpool vs. Tottenham Predictions: Two stats based picks for Saturday night's action

Liverpool welcome Tottenham in the late kick-off on Saturday night and they will be hoping for three points to heap the pressure on their title rivals Man City. Pep Guardiola’s side failed to pick up a single point against Spurs this season, so Klopp’s men will be aware of the threat that Spurs pose.

Liverpool secured their place in the Champions League final midweek, the team rallied after a first half scare and won 3-2 on the night. Tottenham will be keen to take advantage of any tired legs and keep the pressure on Arsenal in the race for the top four.

Sergio Reguilon is the most notable absentee for the visitors, and his attacking threat will be missed. Roberto Firmino is the only doubt for Liverpool, he didn’t feature midweek and is expected to return soon.

Nothing but a win will do for either side, and Liverpool possesses significant attacking threat. The home fans will be willing them to attack as they chase another league title and this should result in Liverpool being on top for much of the game.

Klopp’s team being on the front foot should also lead to several attempts. Liverpool are averaging over 21 shots per game in their last 10 league matches at Anfield, and they had 18 shots when these two teams drew 2-2 earlier in the season. Spurs will have to absorb significant pressure if they are to get anything from this game, and this should play into our hands in terms of shots.

A lot of shots for the home side should inevitably lead to increased goal kick numbers for the visitors. Tottenham had 10 goal kicks when these teams met earlier in the season and  Liverpool opponents in the league at Anfield are also averaging 10 goal kicks per game in the last 10 matches. 

I think that Spurs will get a similar number to the earlier meeting here as long as they don’t concede very early on. Conte’s teams are usually defensively well drilled and they have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches. Spurs are averaging over 12 goal kicks in their last 5 matches where they have been priced similarly to win the match, so this bodes well for the goal kick line we have taken here.

For the longer odds bet, I’m sticking with the notion that Liverpool should dominate the game. Increasing the required amounts for the shots and goal kicks on the earlier bet creates a nice price. The averages I previously mentioned suggest that these two have a great chance for the longshot. 

The 10 Spurs goal kicks required for this bet to land is still below the average for Liverpool opponents in the recent home matches. The required Liverpool shots is also below their average at Anfield in their last 10 matches.

I’ll also add Liverpool to have 21 throws or more in the match. They hit this mark when the teams met earlier in the season. They are also averaging over 21 throws per game in their last 10 home matches.