Leicester vs. Leeds Betting Tips: Two data-driven picks from the in-form Scott Thornton

We landed our main bet on Leicester’s game at the weekend. Little has changed in the days since as the pressure continues to mount on Brendan Rodgers after their 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace.

The Foxes failed to create anything significant in a dour clash at the King Power. The best  chance of the game fell to Harvey Barnes, but he was unable to convert.

Leeds are enduring a tough spell of their own. They are without a win in six league matches. Defeat against Leicester would see them dragged right into the thick of it at the bottom of the table.

Jesse Marsch’s men put in a spirited display against Arsenal, and created a number of good opportunities. Patrick Bamford squandered the chance to draw level from the penalty spot. But Leeds will take confidence from that performance as they head to Leicester.

The first angle to look at is goal kicks. Only 3 points will alleviate pressure on the manager. So the Foxes should push forward in this one and this will help inflate the goal kick count. Leicester forced 7 goal kicks from Crystal Palace at the weekend; which was enough to see our main bet come in on that occasion.

Leeds should present more of an attacking threat than Palace. They will be keen to end their barren run of form, and their matches have seen a good number of goal kicks this season. Leeds' tendency for all-out attack has waned a little since Bielsa’s departure, but the Yorkshire outfit still look to get forward whenever possible.

Leeds’ league matches are averaging over 15 goal kicks this season. Over 12.5 goal kicks has landed in every one of those matches. The fewest goal kicks taken in a Leeds away match is 15.

I’m going to combine goal kicks with throws. Leicester are averaging just under 22 throws per game at the King Power this season. Leicester had 22 throws when these sides met at this stadium last season.

 Leeds’ opponents are averaging 23 throws per game. This climbs to 26 when Marsch’s men are away from home. Aston Villa are the only team who have played Leeds this season and had fewer than 20 throws in the match.

Combining over 12.5 goal kicks in the match and over 18.5 throws for Leicester looks a good bet here.

For the longer odds bet, I’m taking the same angles as our main bet. 16 goal kicks in the match looks very doable when looking at the Leeds away match average of 16.75 per game. The required throws for this bet to land is also very manageable. The opponent has had 21 throws or more in seven of Leeds’ league matches.

Finally, I’m going to add over 12.5 shots for Leicester. The Foxes have had 14 and 17 shots in their last two home matches. All four of Leeds’ opponents away from home have hit this mark. If Leicester fall behind then this bet has an even greater chance of landing.