Leeds vs. Manchester United Predictions: Back tackles and shots for the visitors

Live on Sky Sports main event for a 14:00 kick off Sunday afternoon, Elland Road welcomes Manchester United where they face Leeds in a crucial game at both ends of the table.

Only two wins from their last nine Premier League matches, following a 3-0 thumping at the hands of Everton last weekend, Leeds remain only six points clear of the relegation zone. An extremely important period for Marcelo Bielsa with some very tough fixtures - after facing Manchester United on Sunday, their next three fixtures are against Liverpool, Tottenham and Leicester. Bamford, Phillips and Cooper all remain unavailable which is a huge blow with the importance of upcoming fixtures. Dan James looks set to start in the lone striker role again on Sunday, facing his former club for the first time since his transfer in the summer.

A much needed 2-0 win over Brighton on Tuesday saw Manchester United jump back up to fourth place, only two points clear of West Ham and four points clear of Arsenal who have three games in hand. With many teams hot on their heels, its crucial they continue taking three points otherwise they could find themselves struggling to make Champions League football next season. Fred returned from having Covid19 midweek but may find himself sidelined here against Leeds. Varane dropped out of the starting XI just before kick off against Brighton, Lindelof taking his place and could start next to Maguire again on Sunday. Telles, Pogba and Rashford could all return to the starting XI here in a crucial game for the Red Devils. 

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Struijk, Firpo; Forshaw, Koch; Harrison, Rodrigo, Raphinha; James

Manchester United possible starting lineup:
De Gea; Dalot, Varane, Maguire, Telles; Fernandes, McTominay, Pogba; Rashford, Ronaldo, Sancho

With last week’s selection involving tackles and coming up just one short of making it six winners in a row, I am ready to go again on yet again another generous line for Manchester United tackles.

Ralf Rangnick has now been in charge of the Red Devils for fourteen games, implementing a different style of play without the ball, encouraging players to win it back as quickly as possible. The significant increase in tackles since his arrival has seen this 15.5 tackle line cleared in ten of his fourteen matches, with an average of 17.57 tackles per match.

Man United shots have also increased since Rangnick's arrival, averaging 15.2 per game across his fourteen matches in charge. Of those fourteen matches, Man United have only failed to clear this 11.5 line on two occasions. Only Burnley and Leicester have conceded more shots than Leeds in the Premier League this season too, with an average of 15.5 against per game, supporting the inclusion of these shots even more.

The data looks extremely solid for the main selection here so I have to take a punt on the higher lines which hold similar value.

Increasing the tackle line to 17.5 changes the price a fair amount, yet has still landed in 50% of Rangnicks matches in charge. Leeds are also known for their high energy and directness which can often force opposition tackles. In their last four Premier League matches, Leeds opposition have recorded twenty-two, twenty-two, eighteen and twenty-two tackles, clearing this 17.5 line in all four matches.

The large increase in shots to a 17.5 line boosts this builder the most, pushing it to a very generous 13/2. Man United have cleared this line in four of their last five matches (including against Middlesbrough in the cup) and against a very leaky Leeds side who conceded nineteen shots to Everton last time out, this line is definitely not out of reach.