Leeds vs. Brighton Predictions: Cards on the menu at Elland Road
Leeds vs Brighton Odds
Leeds have a huge game in their fight for Premier League survival on Sunday as they welcome Brighton to Elland Road. We’ve previewed what could be a pivotal game for the West Yorkshire club and provided you with our best data-driven bets.
Jesse Marsch will have been incredibly frustrated to see his side go down to ten men in the first half for the second time in four days, after Dan James was dismissed for a reckless tackle in the 3-0 defeat against Chelsea. James now joins Luke Ayling on the sidelines and will miss this game through suspension, while Adam Forshaw, Patrick Bamford, Tyler Roberts and Stuart Dalas all miss out due to injuries.
Leeds have been losing at both half time and full time in five of their last seven matches in front of their home fans, and they head into Sunday currently inside the relegation zone, level on points with Burnley, although the Clarets do have a game in hand. After three consecutive defeats Leeds will be desperate to pick up a result here to give them confidence ahead of their final day trip to Brentford.
This however, looks like a bad time for them to be facing Brighton. The Seagulls have won their last three matches scoring at least two in all of those. Their form on the road particularly is certainly worth boasting about, with only four teams having picked up more points on their travels all season.
Brighton have won three of their last four away matches, with three points against Spurs, Arsenal and Wolves in recent weeks. Graham Potter has had much longer to prepare for this game than his opposition manager and his side can be backed at 6/4 to get their 12th victory of the season, which could see them move up to eight in the table.
Leeds vs Brighton Tips
Both our bets for this match concern Leeds players being carded, and as well as having a player dismissed in their last two matches, Leeds have also set a new record this season for the most yellow cards shown to one club in a single campaign.
In total Leeds have been shown a whopping 97 yellows, surpassing the record of 94, set by Sunderland in the 2014/2015 season. Ten of those 97 cautions have been brandished to Spanish left-back Junior Firpo who has totted up more than any other player in the squad this term.
Furthermore, Firpo’s ten yellows have come in just 22 matches this season, with five of those being from the substitutes bench. No player in the league has been shown more yellow cards than Firpo who is tied with five other players on ten, although it’s worth noting that the 25-year-old’s have come in significantly less matches than some of the other players at the top of the bookings charts. 15/8 may not look the most glamorous of prices on a player being carded, but in a game of such importance to Leeds and with his record in mind this season, we’re happy to get behind the Firpo booking on Sunday.
We’ve also picked out a double with two other players to be carded in this match. Mike Dean will be the referee for this game as he approaches the end of his final season in the Premier League. Everyone’s favourite ref was ranked in the top three officials for yellows shown per game in three of the last four seasons, and although he hasn’t been quite as trigger-happy when it comes to handing out cards this term, we still believe he’s one of the better officials to rack up the bookings.
Yves Bissouma and Raphinha are the two players that make up this 20/1 longshot available with Paddy Power. The former is also one of the five players (along with Junior Firpo), to have collected ten yellow cards this season. The Brighton midfielder’s cautions have come over just 23 starts this season, which gives appeal to the prices on show here of 13/5 with Paddy Power and what looks to be an industry best-price of 11/4 with bet365.
Raphinha has been a standout performer at times for Leeds this season, although his goal contributions have dried up a little bit since the turn of the year. The Brazilian has more yellow cards than goals to his name since January and in total has been shown seven in 32 starts throughout the course of the campaign. He’s a player who has the potential to spit the dummy out and lose his head should Leeds go behind here and he can hopefully yield some profit for cards backers this weekend.
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