Huddersfield vs. Nottingham Forest Predictions: Expect a tight, low scoring affair at Wembley

Few games in the world have as much riding on it as this one. Sunday, 16:30 under the arch in the capital provides the backdrop as Huddersfield Town lock horns with Nottingham Forest with a place in the Premier League and all the riches that come with it up for grabs. We've asked JimmyThePunt to preview this one for us and give us his four best bets. 

Carlos Corberán has masterminded an incredible season during which the Terriers have massively overachieved. Last campaign they finished in 20th, five points above the drop, and having not exactly pulled up trees with their transfer business over the summer, were expected to have a similarly disappointing campaign this season. At 11/4, Huddersfield are the biggest priced Championship play-off finalist since record began (2004), showcasing the improving job Corberán has done with what is available to him. 

Forest’s turn around under Steve Cooper is equally impressive for different reasons. When he took over at the City Ground eight games into the season, his side were sat at the foot of the table and in the 38 games that have followed, no side has amassed more points then Forest (76). Now they stand one game away from a return to the promised land after a 23 year hiatus. 

Fate has bestowed on us an intriguing match up, pitting truly the best of the rest against one another in a winner takes all battle of blood and thunder. There will be tasty battles all over the hallowed turf, none more so than between Huddersfield’s left-wing back and Forest's right-wing back. 

I struggle to think of a wing back in the country in better form than Harry Toffolo. The Terriers defender has six goals and seven assists to his name with the majority of his strikes coming during the business end of the season. He will pit his wits against Middlesborough loanee Djed Spence. The equally offensive minded youngster has come of age this campaign sparking interest from the top of the topflight. 

If Huddersfield stand a chance, they will have to keep Forest’s right wing quiet as Brennan Johnson will line up ahead of Spence. Elsewhere, if fit, Keinan Davis expected to return upfront at the expense of Sam Surridge. 

As for Huddersfield, Danny Ward remains a doubt after limping off in the semi-final second leg, Jordan Rhodes is available though. Sorba Thomas should return to flank either one of them as the mercurial winger appears to have shaken off a knee issue.

Huddersfield are the Championship's most prolific side from set pieces with 20 goals, that is just over 31% of their overall total. The goal that has brought them to the capital derived from one, a fierce ball in from Sorba Thomas that was poked home by Jordan Rhodes. 

That main threat from their main threat, is Tom Lees. The Terriers defender tops their charts for aerials won, averaging 4.2 per game, whilst no defender at the club has scored more league goals (3) or averaged more shots per game (0.5) then him. 

Lees registered a shot in each of the semi-final legs against Luton meaning that he has had eight shots in his last twelve starts, which includes the brace he bagged in his sides 3-0 victory over relegated Peterborough.

• Lee Nicholls booking
• Huddersfield win
• Game to feature over zero cards

Since 2007, 12 of the last 15 Championship play-off finals have seen under 2.5 goals click in 90 minutes, nine of which have seen one or fewer goals scored. Over the same period, 80% have been settled within the 90 minutes with three going to extra time and one going all the way to a shootout. 

Although every game must be looked at individually, this clear trend depicts the palpable tension synonymous with these fixtures. Having sat through two myself I can say with some confidence that the occasion simply does not allow teams to perform at their free flowing best. 

So, with the stakes so high and recent history suggesting the game will be settled within 90 minutes, I think keeper cards are worth a punt. Using Bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’ you can combine a Lee Nicholls booking with a Huddersfield win and the game to feature over zero cards at 20/1. 

Huddersfield shot stopper has been one of the best keepers in the division this campaign, averaging 3.2 saves per game and his Whoscored rating of 6.89 is the largest of any keeper to play over 30 games.  

Nicholls also has seven cards to his name proving that he is very familiar with the dark arts if his side gets their noses in front.

• Brice Samba booking
• Forest win
• Game to feature over zero cards

For the same reasons as tipping a Nicholls card, I also think it is worth touting a Brice Samba card. 

Samba equals his opposite numbers cards total for the campaign though his is a bit more colourful with six yellows and a straight red. As the latter suggests, he can be pure box office capable of anything from the sublime to the ridiculous. 

He was the hero in the semi-final second leg making two outrageous saves to thwart Sheffield United’s Iliman Ndiaye before saving the Blades first two penalties. In mid-February he received his marching orders against Stoke for violent conduct as he jabbed Phil Jagielka. 

It is anyone's guess as to what kind of performance Samba is going to put in at Wembley, but one thing is for sure, if Forest go ahead he will be doing everything in his power to ensure he will be a Premier League football player next campaign. 

For the reasons outlined above, I have combined a Huddersfield win with a Lees goal and a Nicholls card using Bet365’s ‘Bet Builder’ at 150/1 for a chunky longshot. Recent history shows that these are usually tight affairs so hopefully this punt has some legs. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.