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Golden Boot Odds: Richarlison, Olivier Giroud and Ferran Torres big movers for top scorer

A detailed look at the top scorer odds at World Cup 2022
A detailed look at the top scorer odds at World Cup 2022

Gameweek 1 of the World Cup has come to a close and we’ve had some crazy results happen already.

On top of some extraordinary results, we’ve seen some unlikely goalscorers leading the line with one example being Bukayo Saka who scored a brace for England against Iran. 

With all the games coming to an end we've taken a look at the updated odds in the top scorer race and broken down all the movements in the market.

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Market Movers In Golden Boot Odds

The opening game of the tournament saw Enner Valencia become the subject of some serious market moving, at one point was backed into just 14/1 after opening up at 200/1.

Of course, this was all fairly reactionary as he’s since drifted out to around the 56/1 mark, but it’s still a serious move! It’s not likely the Ecuadorian will be getting many more goals but to start his campaign off with two, it’s put him in the running for now.

Another player who has seen his odds move is Bukayo Saka who looked stunning for England in their 6-2 over Iran. After that performance, Saka has most likely secured his place in the starting XI for England vs USA and that has affected his price in the outright market.

At one point he was as high as 200/1 with SBK and he’s now 16/1 with them. It’s doubtful he’ll maintain that scoring record as most of us are expecting Harry Kane to step it up in the goals department but with him seemingly securing his spot on the right wing, he’ll definitely be aiming for a few more over the tournament.

Ferran Torres is another player who scored a brace for his nation after Spain recorded the most emphatic win of the 2022 World Cup so far with a 7-0 win over Costa Rica. To many people’s surprise, Torres was actually on penalty duty for Spain which is definitely something to consider when you’re doing your goalscorer betting.

We mentioned Torres could be a great shout for an each-way bet in the World Cup at around 50/1, well he’s now one of the shorter prices in the market at 14/1. 

Now onto some of the bigger movers in the market where we have Olivier Giroud who scored a brace to equal Thierry Henry’s goalscoring record for France.

With Karim Benzema out Giroud was looking like a decent bet for top scorer, however, most people would have had their money on Kylian Mbappe anyway, well Giroud proved to everyone just how good he is against Australia where he netted two. The striker started off at 169/1 before the World Cup and following Benzema’s injury, he was then cut to about 50/1 with most firms. After his double against the Aussies, Giroud now the 10/1 third favourite with bet365 for the top scorer just behind Mbappe and one of the new boys in the market.

World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds

That new boy being Richarlison after scoring a stunning brace against Serbia on Thursday night.

Some bookmakers have seen enough and labeled him as the joint-favorite with Mbappe, others are not so convinced but have slashed his price massively. He was about 25/1 with most bookmakers before kick-off but Richarlison since been backed into 17/2 with Paddy Power!

A crazy market move and to be honest, with his goalscoring record for Brazil, there’s no reason why he can’t do it. He’ll be starting every game and he will be the main striker as Neymar seems to have adopted a more supportive role. That’s now 19 goals in 39 games for his nation and that record definitely shows you why he is one of the best forwards at the tournament.

World Cup Top Goalscorers

2 - Bukayo Saka

2 - Ferran Torres

2 - Richarlison

2 - Enner Valencia

2 - Olivier Giroud

2 - Mehdi Taremi

Correct as of 24/11/2022

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Market Drifters In Golden Boot Odds

There have been a few disappointing performances from some teams over the first set of fixtures, and with those disappointing performances come some individuals that haven’t been on the goals and in some cases, their team has been winning games, but some individuals are yet to arrive at the world cup properly.

One of those being Harry Kane who was the outright favourite for the top scorer market before the World Cup started.

Despite England scoring six goals against Iran, the skipper didn’t manage to find the back of the net on a single occasion and has since seen his odds drift from 7/1 to 18/1 after firing a blank.

Some people might argue that there’s some value at 18/1 (bet365) that at such a huge drift, and they could be on to something, England did look solid and are likely to go fairly deep in the tournament, Kane will definitely be amongst the goals soon and all it takes is one hat–trick to be right at the top.

Another big drifter in the market is Neymar who wasn’t very effective against Serbia in all honesty.

Many were also confused at the position he played, Richarlison was the man up top with Vinicius Jr and Raphinha out wide. Neymar was then in just behind those supporting the three attacking players, something that won’t go down well with the Neymar Golden Boot backers!

Going into this tournament Neymar was one of the favourites for the Golden Boot, and now after picking up an injury and firing a blank, he's drifted out to 66/1 to be the top scorer in Qatar!

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Lionel Messi has also seen a slight drift in his price from around 9/1 to 14/1. Nothing too major and he did, in fact, get a goal against Saudi Arabia, but Messi backers would have been hoping for more than one goal against such a low-ranked side, Argentina fans, in general, would have just been happy to not lose that game, which they did.

2-1 to Saudi Arabia, one of the biggest World Cup upsets ever! Messi will definitely be scoring more this tournament but he really didn’t look great this game despite the penalty goal. Maybe he will just need some time to adjust to the tournament but it didn’t look great in his first game.

And that’s that! As it stands with most bookmakers Richarlison and Mbappe are now the joint-favourites for the Golden Boot, the rest of the crew are sitting just behind them and it’s still all to play for with a few braces from some outsiders and the big boys just get started.

Full Top Scorer odds can be viewed in the odds comparison table below.

Top Scorer Odds

Kylian Mbappe
WIN PROB: 24%
1
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3/1
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3/1
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5/2
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5/2
Lionel Messi
WIN PROB: 11%
1
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6/1
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5/1
Richarlison
WIN PROB: 9%
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8/1
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6/1
Cody Gakpo
WIN PROB: 7%
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9/1
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Marcus Rashford
WIN PROB: 7%
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Alvaro Morata
WIN PROB: 5%
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Ferran Torres
WIN PROB: 4%
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Cristiano Ronaldo
WIN PROB: 3%
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Olivier Giroud
WIN PROB: 3%
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Bruno Fernandes
WIN PROB: 3%
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Enner Valencia
WIN PROB: 1%
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Bukayo Saka
WIN PROB: 2%
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Andrej Kramaric
WIN PROB: 1%
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Harry Kane
WIN PROB: 1%
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Sequeira Joao Felix
WIN PROB: 1%
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Vinicius Junior
WIN PROB: 1%
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Niclas Fullkrug
WIN PROB: 1%
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Neymar
WIN PROB: 1%
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Aleksandar Mitrovic
WIN PROB: 1%
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Georginio Wijnaldum
WIN PROB: 1%
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Gerard Moreno
WIN PROB: 1%
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Robert Lewandowski
WIN PROB: 1%
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Marco Asensio
WIN PROB: 1%
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Rafael Leao
WIN PROB: 0%
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Julian Alvarez
WIN PROB: 1%
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Darwin Nunez
WIN PROB: 1%
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Paul Pogba
WIN PROB: 1%
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Phil Foden
WIN PROB: 1%
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Lautaro Martinez
WIN PROB: 1%
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Gavi
WIN PROB: 1%
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Raphinha
WIN PROB: 1%
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Raheem Sterling
WIN PROB: 1%
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Mohammed Kudus
WIN PROB: 1%
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Michy Batshuayi
WIN PROB: 1%
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Ilkay Gundogan
WIN PROB: 1%
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Rodrygo
WIN PROB: 1%
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Leroy Sane
WIN PROB: 0%
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Gabriel Jesus
WIN PROB: 1%
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Ollie Watkins
WIN PROB: 1%
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Marko Livaja
WIN PROB: 1%
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Marco Reus
WIN PROB: 1%
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Enzo Fernandes
WIN PROB: 1%
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Carlos Soler
WIN PROB: 1%
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Anthony
WIN PROB: 1%
Antoine Griezmann
WIN PROB: 1%
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Kai Havertz
WIN PROB: 1%
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Dani Olmo
WIN PROB: 0%
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Memphis Depay
WIN PROB: 0%
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Jude Bellingham
WIN PROB: 1%
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Breel Embolo
WIN PROB: 0%
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Jamal Musiala
WIN PROB: 1%
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Serge Gnabry
WIN PROB: 1%