Fulham vs. Brentford Betting Tips: Back Norgaard to be carded in the capital

Fulham host Brentford in a London derby on Saturday afternoon and we’ve tasked @AnthonyEadson to preview the game and provide us with his best data-driven bets for the action. 

It would have been an almost perfect start to the season for Fulham and Marco Silva had Aleksandar Mitrovic converted a penalty late on at Molineux last weeknd. Instead, the Cottagers had to settle for a point, just as in the first game of the campaign against Liverpool, but will be targeting their first W of the season here against Brentford.

In contrast, the Bees arrive here absolutely buzzing after a day their fans will never forget when beating Manchester United by an incredible four goals to nil. Brentford also pulled off a two goal comeback to take a point from Leicester on the opening weekend in what has been a strong start to the campaign for Thomas Frank’s men. Brentford have not lost a west London derby at Fulham since 1990 and are undefeated in their last seven against them in all competitions. 

Marco Silva is expected to name an unchanged side to the one he fielded in both of Fulham’s two league matches so far. Joe Bryan is close to a return, however Harry Wilson and Manor Solomon are both confirmed absentees.

For Brentford, there is a possibility that both Kristoffer Ajer and Sergi Canos could return for this capital affair, although Ethan Pinnock will remain on the sidelines following his injury.

First up I’ve found a selection that I really like the look of in the form of Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo to have Over 0.5 shots on target in the match. This seems to be around the 8/11 mark with most firms but the even money on show with bet365 certainly makes appeal considering his data from last season.

I’ve spoken before on BettingOdds about Mbeumo’s underperformance last term when generating 9.7xG across the season, but only scoring four goals. The 23-year-old was still getting into great positions and only 14 players in the league let off more shots than the 77 he attempted. When it comes to shots on target, Mbeumo has recorded one in each of his two games this season and looking back at 2021/2022, the 1+ line was cleared in eight of his final 11 appearances. 

A selection from the ‘player to be carded’ market has also caught my eye down in London on Saturday. Christian Norgaard is the player in question, with quotes of 13/4 (4.25) available with Unibet. 

In 2021/2022 Norgaard was shown eight yellow cards, the joint most for Brentford last season, along with forward Ivan Toney. However, looking back through the fixtures and the key bit of information here is that, seven of Norgaard’s cautions came in away matches. With this in mind, 13/4 looks a reasonable price that we can get behind after seven yellows in 17 matches away from the Brentford Community Stadium in 2021/2022. Also worth noting that most other firms have this selection at around 2/1. 

Another boost here is that Peter Bankes will be the man in the middle at Craven Cottage. Last season Bankes gave out an average of 4.5 yellows per game in the top-flight with only two of the other 22 officials having a higher ratio than this. Bankes has taken control of just one game so far this term when giving out six yellows between Bournemouth and Villa on the opening weekend, but he can certainly be considered one of the better referees for us card backers.