Everton vs. Manchester City Predictions: Two data driven angles for this crucial tie

Man City take on Everton in the 5:30 slot on Saturday and the stakes couldn’t be higher for both teams, for very different reasons. 

Everton have been unable to benefit from the new manager bounce they would have hoped for when appointing Frank Lampard, and relegation is a real possibility for the Toffees if form doesn’t improve before the end of the season. Lampard’s team are currently two points above the relegation zone and while there is a general consensus that Everton are simply too good to go down, they will be keen to avoid a hammering here and build on that in the coming weeks to steer clear of the bottom three.

Pep’s team succumbed to a last gasp defeat against Spurs last week, and the title race has been blown wide open with the shock result against a side who had lost their last three league games. City will be looking to put in a dominant display and reaffirm why they are the favourites for the title this season. City are currently three points above Liverpool and they won’t want to give Klopp’s team the chance to leapfrog them before they welcome them to the Etihad later in the season.

Man City are averaging just 3.3 goal kicks per game in their last 10 matches in all competitions and they will be looking to take control early on and silence the Goodison crowd.

Man City have had under 5.5 goal kicks in their last five meetings with Everton, and they average just three per game over those games. In Everton’s last five matches where they’ve been similarly priced to win outright, their opponent’s in those matches average 3.8 goal kicks per game. Man City average just 3.2 goal kicks per game in their last five matches where they have faced similar opponents.

The throw ins angle of this bet has also landed in the last five meetings between these teams, with an average of 28 per game over those matches. Man City are exceptional when in possession and control large periods of the game, and this is reflected in the lack of throws in their games; their last  10 matches average just over 29 throws per game, which suggests the required line for this bet should be pretty safe here.

City’s last five matches where they have been similarly priced have seen just over 26 throws per game. Everton’s last five matches against similar opponents run the required line a lot closer, with an average of 35 throws per game.

Our long shot uses the same angles as our main bet. As previously discussed, the Man City averages against Everton in their recent meetings suggest this should land. 

I’ve added Man City to win the game to boost the odds further because Pep’s men will need to be in full control for the other angles to land here.