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European Football Tips: PSG v Lyon the highlight on Sunday

Layvin Kurzawa features in Sunday's European Football tips.
Layvin Kurzawa features in Sunday's European Football tips.

The cynosure of the French top flight sees first place PSG duel with third place Lyon at Le Parc des Princes on Sunday night. Our hosts endured a monumental clash with Istanbul Basaksehir in the UCL. Monumental in the sides united stance against alleged racism, however, the actual game of football itself was ultimately irrelevant both in the grand scheme of prior events and implications for the UCL proceedings. Never the less, the 5-1 victory eased the pressure a little more for Thomas Tuchel. 

Sunday's visitors are motoring along nicely this campaign, only tasting defeat once they are on an unbeaten run of ten games during which they have won their last four. Lyon are around 15/4 which means their expected chance of victory is 21%, however, they have won 48% of their games when priced at these odds. That being said, the price is more than justified given that they haven't won away at PSG in the league in over ten years. Rudi Garcia will be hoping his sides poor run in Paris ends on Sunday night and he heads their with only one absentee, the suspended Rayan Cherki.

Today's football tips
PSG v Lyon
Sun, 20:00
JimmyThePunt: Lucas Paqueta to be booked
WIN PROB: 29.41%
12/5
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Paqueta has been Lyon's worst offender when it comes to cards so far this season.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-11 20:35 Odds subject to change.

I like Betfair and Paddy Powers price of 12/5 for Lucas Paqueta to be booked. The former AC Milan midfielder has only had he name taken once in seven Ligue one appearances, however, he tops Lyon's charts for fouls (2) and tackles (2.7) per game. This suggests that Paqueta is often in the thick of the action and that he most certainly is; in his penultimate game he conceded six fouls and attempted seven tackles!

That being said, I wouldn't usually back a booking price this skinny for a player with whose disciplinary record is surprising so clean. The most enticing think about this angle is who the Brazilian youngster is opposing; his compatriot Neymar. It's also worth noting that the same bet is as short as 7/5 elsewhere. 

Premier League betting
JimmyThePunt: Layvin Kurzawa to be booked
WIN PROB: 22.22%
7/2
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Three cards in his last four games for the PSG defender.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-11 20:35 Odds subject to change.

Sticking with cards, PSG's defender Layvin Kurzawa also take appeal at odds of 7/2. The French full back has picked up three cards in his last four appearances, he also managed to get a straight red in his six minute cameo in Les Parisiens crazy game with Marseille! He tops PSG's charts for fouls per game in both the league (2.5) and UCL (1.7).

The man with the whistle for this one is Benoit Bastien. He's averaged 4.5Y and 0.5R per game this season but you may remember him as the man who brandished three yellow cards, three red cards and awarded a penalty in added time of a UEL game on Thursday. Bastien hasn't being card shy domestically either, awarding 14 yellows in his last three games. He also gave three yellows for both PSG and Lyon the last time he ref'd them and took the name of Kurzawa. 

JimmyThePunt: Karl Toko Ekambi 3+ shots on target
WIN PROB: 15.38%
11/2
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Lyon's highest shot taker this season averaging 2.9 a game.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-11 20:35 Odds subject to change.

Finally, I also like Karl Toko Ekambi's price of 13/10 to have three shots with Betfair and Paddy Power, the same bet is odds against with Ladbrokes. No Les Gones player has a greater shots per game average than Ekambi's 2.9. This bet has landed in five of his last six starts, during which time he's had 20 shots and found the found the net seven times!

You can combine all three of these angles with Betfair at odds of 45/1. 

JimmyThePunt: Paqueta & Kurzawa to be booked & Ekambi 3+ shots on target
WIN PROB: 2.17%
45/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Check out the reasons above for why I think this bet has an excellent chance.

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-11 20:45 Odds subject to change.

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