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European Football Tips: Gnabry to find the notepad against Leverkusen

European Football Tips: Serge Gnabry a player to follow this weekend
European Football Tips: Serge Gnabry a player to follow this weekend

My favourite fancies for this weekend's footballing action on the continent come courtesy of Bayer Leverkusen's game with Bayern Munich at the helm of the Bundesliga and I've also had a look at Lazio's clash with Napoli in the Serie A on Sunday which you can find here - Lazio v Napoli tips

The final match-day before the winter break pits first versus second in Germany. Peter Bosz's irrepressible Leverkusen side have their fate come Christmas in their own hands as they welcome Bayern. The unbeaten Werkself will be bolstered as Kerem Demirbay is back in contention for a start, however, our hosts will be without long term absentee 's Aranguiz, Paulinho and Palacios. 

Bayern have suffered the consequences of a busy schedule with Kimmich and Goretzka unlikely to feature here. Hans Dieter Flick could inject his backline with some much needed pace in the form of Alphonso Davies. The Canadian full back recently recovered from an ankle injury and could be trusted back into action in the nick of time; the perfect match to opponent Leon Bailey's pace. 

In Italy, a depleted Napoli side head to the capital without their first choice attacking trio. Insigne is suspended following a red card for foul language while their expensive import from France Osimhen and Dries Mertens are ruled out with injury. 

The bookies have the visitors as favourites but the odds are in-fact staked against Gattuso's side as they have lost three out of the last three games against sides in the top five. In contrast, Le Aquile are a side to relish the big occasion. This season, they got a result against Brugge in the UCL when it mattered most and took four points off BVB. At the Stadio Olimpico last season, they won 17 of the 23 games they played!

  • Leon Bailey 3 Shots at odds of 6/5 with Betfair
  • Serge Gnabry Booking at odds of 9/1 with William Hill
  • Leon Bailey 3 Shots and Serge Gnabry Booking at odds of 17/1 with Betfair
Today's Football Tips
Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Sat, 17:30
JimmyThePunt: Leon Bailey 3+ shots
WIN PROB: 45.45%
6/5
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Averaged 3 SpG in his Bundesliga starts this season

  • This bet has landed in 5 of his last 8 league games. 

  • His pace should cause Bayern's high line plenty of issues.

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-18 16:15 Odds subject to change.

When these sides met at the Allianz Arena last November, Leon Bailey's first half brace stunned the German champions. His lightning pace combined with Bayern's high line spelt trouble for The Bavarians comparably sluggish defence. This season, Bailey has clocked in at 36.35km an hour. Therefore, he'd easily gain at least two metres on any member of Bayern's back four in a flat-out foot race over 20m!

During his last two campaign's in Germany, Bailey has finished the season on five goals but he already has four to his name this term and is showing no signs of letting up. All of his goals have come in his last six starts, he bagged a brace in his penultimate league appearance and is averaging three shots per game! 

The Jamaican speed-merchant has accumulated at least three shots in his last eight appearances with this bet landing in two of his last three games and he could've made that three if he wasn't subbed with half an hour to play vs Koln. 

Ladbrokes are the only other bookie to currently have priced this market and have the same bet at odds against (10/11). Therefore, with Bayern's tactics playing directly into Bailey's strengths I expect him to give us a run for our money! 

Serge Gnabry to be carded
WIN PROB: 10%
9/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Gnabry has been booked in 2/2 of his last apps.

  • Only 19/4 with Betway.

  • Will be opposing Leverkusen's best and most fouled player; Leon Bailey.

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-18 16:15 Odds subject to change.

It is usually difficult to tip a booking without knowing who the referee is but Serge Gnabry's price of 9/1 with William Hill has tempted me. 

With Kimmich injured, the ex-Arsenal man will be the joint most booked player on the pitch tomorrow evening with three to his name this season (league). Gnabry has had his name taken in both of his most recent Bundesliga appearances and has surprisingly averaged over a foul a game in those he has started.

Usually, revered for his attacking prowess, he'll have to prove himself as more of an all rounder tomorrow as he opposes the likes of Leon Bailey, Flroian Witz and Lars Bender. Bailey tops Die Werkself's charts as the most fouled player drawing an average of 1.4 per game and Bender takes third spot with 1.2. 

With Bayern's lightning quick left back Davies unlikely to start here, Gnabry will have to use his pace to run both ways and help out Hernandez with containing Bailey. Therefore, his generous price with Sky makes some appeal.

Leon Bailey 3+ shots & Serge Gnabry to be carded
WIN PROB: 5.56%
17/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Averaged 3 SpG in his Bundesliga starts this season, with this bet has landing in 5 of his last 8 league games

  • Gnabry has been booked in 2/2 of his last apps.
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-18 16:20 Odds subject to change.

As a long-shot I have combined the two bets via Betfair's same game multi at odds of 17.25/1. 

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