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European Football Tips: Two selections from Serie A on Sunday night

Napoli feature in Sunday's European football tips.
Napoli feature in Sunday's European football tips.

For Sunday's European football tips, @JimmyThePunt is having a look at the 19:45 Serie A clash between Lazio and Napoli with two best bets... 

A depleted Napoli side head to the capital without their first choice attacking trio. Insigne is suspended following a red card for foul language while their expensive import from France Osimhen and Dries Mertens are ruled out with injury. 

The bookies have the visitors as favourites but the odds are in-fact staked against Gattuso's side as they have lost three out of the last three games against sides in the top five. In contrast, Le Aquile are a side to relish the big occasion. This season, they got a result against Brugge in the UCL when it mattered most and took four points off BVB. At the Stadio Olimpico last season, they won 17 of the 23 games they played!

Today's Football Tips
Lazio v Napoli
Sun, 19:45
JimmyThePunt: Luis Alberto 1+ shot on target
WIN PROB: 44.44%
5/4
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?
  • Averaging 0.7 shots on target per 90 mins
  • Register a shot on target on six of his ten appearances this season
We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-18 21:10 Odds subject to change.

Since recovering from a short stint on the side lines due to COVID, Luis Alberto has been a regular fixture in the Biancocelesti's midfield. With an SpG average of two, only Lazio's talisman Ciro Immobile (3.2) has a higher average then the Spaniard. 

Alberto has registered six shots on target in ten appearances this season but averages 0.70 shots on target per 90 minutes. Over the course of his career he has averaged 0.99! 

He is marginally longer with Betfair and Paddy Power than with Ladbrokes. However, I think this price represents value in the sense of how it compares to his midfield compadre Sergfej Milinkovic-Savic. The latter has a worse shots per game average of 1.9 and has only found the target in five of his league appearances this season. The Serbian midfielder does have a fractionally better SoT/90 average than Alberto (0.84) but has a worse average over the course of his career (0.79). 

Given all the information outlined above, I would have had the pair identically priced at around evens, yet Milinkovic-Savic is only a fraction of Alberto's price at ½.

Kastas Manolas to be carded
WIN PROB: 16.67%
5/1
Calculate your returns:
£79.00
Why this Tip?

Manolas has received a booking in 19% of the games in his career

We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-18 21:15 Odds subject to change.

Monolas has received a booking in 19% of the games he has played over his career so Unibets price of 4/1 seems apt. That being said, he is considerably shorter elsewhere with the next best price at 2/1 with Bet365. 

The Greek central defender has only had his name taken once this season but has conceded just shy of a foul per game and opposes Lazio's two most fouled players on Sunday in Joaquin Correa (2.5)  Immobile (1.70.)

It is also worth noting that at least one of the opposition's centre backs has been booked when facing Lazio in four of their last five Serie A fixtures. Manolas usually starts on the right side and three of the last three RCB's to face Lazio have had their name taken. 

By UK standards, Sunday's referee is a psychopath as he averages 5Y and 0.5R per game but by Italians standards Daniele Orsato has been pretty average for card brandishing this season. Nerveless, having a man who has awarded eleven yellows and a red card in his last two appearances can only bode well for this selection.

As always, please bet responsibly. 

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