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Euro 2021 Betting: England's most likely line-up vs. Croatia according to the odds

Euro 2021 Betting: Jordan Pickford is the most likely player to start v Croatia according to the odds
Euro 2021 Betting: Jordan Pickford is the most likely player to start v Croatia according to the odds

Bookmaker Coral have released odds on who they think will start for England in their tournament curtain raiser at Euro 2021 next June. The Three Lions face the team who knocked them out of the World Cup semi-finals back in 2018, Croatia, looking for revenge for that defeat two-and-a-half years ago. 

While things like form and injuries will obviously determine who starts for the Three Lions in seven months time, currently the most probable line-up - according to the odds - starts with Everton’s Jordan Pickford in goal.

The Toffees stopper is odds-on at 1/2 to line up against Croatia, with Harry Maguire (1/6), Eric Dier (4/6), Trent Alexander-Arnold (1/6) and Ben Chilwell (1/2) in front of him in defence (the latter two operating as wing-backs). 

Group D Winner Odds

England
WIN PROB: 71%
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Croatia
WIN PROB: 25%
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Czech Republic
WIN PROB: 8%
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Scotland
WIN PROB: 4%
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We’re used to seeing football odds displayed in either fractions (2/1) or decimal (3.0), but what the Win Percentage Probability score does is show you exactly what percentage chance the bookmaker gives that selection of winning based on their odds.
Odds correct as of 2020-12-03 16:37 Odds subject to change.
England Euro 2021 Squad Betting

Coral think that Southgate will opt for Jordan Henderson (1/6) and Declan Rice (1/4) in midfield, with Harry Kane (1/10), Marcus Rashford (1/10) and Raheem Sterling (1/10) making up a three-man attack.

“Gareth Southgate has been criticised for being too negative with his starting XI, however, our odds project the England boss will start with an attacking line-up for his opening game of Euro 2020, with places for Raheem Sterling and Jadon Sancho,” said Coral spokesperson John Hill.
 
“Jordan Pickford is likely to be favoured over Nick Pope in goal, while we think Trent Alexander-Arnold and Ben Chilwell will feature in the two full-back positions,” added Hill.
 
"At this stage, we don't think there will be a place for Jack Grealish in the starting XI, however, if the Aston Villa man continues to impress, that could all change before June." 

Indeed, the value could lie in Jack Grealish, who is a 4/5 shot to start against Croatia in June. The 25-year-old was terrific against Belgium last weekend and has started really brightly for Villa in the Premier League. Chelsea's Reece James has also impressed in recent internationals, the young right-back is enjoying a better campaign that Trent Alexander-Arnold right now and at 4/1 looks a huge price to start England's first match at Wembley. 

Tyrone Mings has been preferred by Southgate in the heart of defence on numerous occasions and has done well when called upon. The Villa centre-half is odds-against to start against Croatia at 5/4, so that could also be a worthwhile selection at this early stage, while Manchester City's Phil Foden is an even-money shot and could also be worth considering if he starts to pick up some more minutes at club level this season.

England are the 5/1 joint-favourites with Belgium to win Euro 2021. They are odds-on at 2/5 to top Group D at the end of the group stages.

Eng
To make England's Euro 2021 squad

  • PROB
    %
Jordan Pickford
WIN PROB: 94%
Raheem Sterling
WIN PROB: 94%
Marcus Rashford
WIN PROB: 92%
Jadon Sancho
WIN PROB: 92%
Harry Kane
WIN PROB: 92%
Trent Alexander Arnold
WIN PROB: 92%
Harry Maguire
WIN PROB: 91%
Jordan Henderson
WIN PROB: 91%
Dean Henderson
WIN PROB: 89%
Ben Chilwell
WIN PROB: 89%
Declan Rice
WIN PROB: 86%
Nick Pope
WIN PROB: 83%
Mason Mount
WIN PROB: 80%
Jack Grealish
WIN PROB: 78%
Eric Dier
WIN PROB: 71%
Phil Foden
WIN PROB: 71%
James Maddison
WIN PROB: 67%
Joe Gomez
WIN PROB: 67%
Dominic Calvert Lewin
WIN PROB: 67%
Conor Coady
WIN PROB: 64%
Kyle Walker
WIN PROB: 62%
Mason Greenwood
WIN PROB: 52%
Kalvin Phillips
WIN PROB: 50%
Danny Ings
WIN PROB: 44%
Tyrone Mings
WIN PROB: 44%
Kieran Trippier
WIN PROB: 44%
Reece James
WIN PROB: 44%
Harry Winks
WIN PROB: 42%
Bukayo Saka
WIN PROB: 40%
Michael Keane
WIN PROB: 38%
Alex Oxlade Chamberlain
WIN PROB: 33%
James Ward Prowse
WIN PROB: 31%
Ross Barkley
WIN PROB: 29%
John Stones
WIN PROB: 27%
Dele Alli
WIN PROB: 25%
Jude Bellingham
WIN PROB: 25%
Aaron Wan Bissaka
WIN PROB: 22%
Ben White
WIN PROB: 22%
Tom Heaton
WIN PROB: 20%
Aaron Ramsdale
WIN PROB: 20%
Tammy Abraham
WIN PROB: 20%
Ruben Loftus Cheek
WIN PROB: 20%
Callum Wilson
WIN PROB: 17%
Harvey Barnes
WIN PROB: 14%
Luke Shaw
WIN PROB: 14%
Ainsley Maitland Niles
WIN PROB: 14%
Brandon Williams
WIN PROB: 14%
Fikayo Tomori
WIN PROB: 11%
Chris Smalling
WIN PROB: 11%
Ollie Watkins
WIN PROB: 11%
James Tarkowski
WIN PROB: 11%
Tariq Lamptey
WIN PROB: 9%
Dwight McNeil
WIN PROB: 9%
Mason Holgate
WIN PROB: 8%
Fabien Delph
WIN PROB: 8%
Axel Tuanzebe
WIN PROB: 8%
Fraser Forster
WIN PROB: 8%
Alex McCarthy
WIN PROB: 7%
Callum Hudson Odoi
WIN PROB: 7%
Jamie Vardy
WIN PROB: 7%
Jack OConnell
WIN PROB: 7%
Lewis Dunk
WIN PROB: 6%
Jarrod Bowen
WIN PROB: 6%
Danny Rose
WIN PROB: 6%
Japhet Tanganga
WIN PROB: 6%
Eberechi Eze
WIN PROB: 5%
Todd Cantwell
WIN PROB: 5%
Sean Longstaff
WIN PROB: 5%
Jesse Lingard
WIN PROB: 5%
Ryan Sessegnon
WIN PROB: 5%
Eddie Nketiah
WIN PROB: 5%
Rob Holding
WIN PROB: 5%
Ben Godfrey
WIN PROB: 5%
Adam Lallana
WIN PROB: 4%
Ethan Pinnock
WIN PROB: 4%
Sam Johnstone
WIN PROB: 4%
Curtis Jones
WIN PROB: 4%
Rhian Brewster
WIN PROB: 4%
Michail Antonio
WIN PROB: 4%
Joe Hart
WIN PROB: 4%
Nathaniel Chalobah
WIN PROB: 4%
Ezri Konsa
WIN PROB: 4%
Jack Butland
WIN PROB: 4%
Adam Webster
WIN PROB: 4%
James Justin
WIN PROB: 4%
Charlie Taylor
WIN PROB: 4%
Craig Dawson
WIN PROB: 4%
Jack Stephens
WIN PROB: 4%
Matt Targett
WIN PROB: 4%
Ben Foster
WIN PROB: 3%
Daniel Bentley
WIN PROB: 3%
Jarrad Branthwaite
WIN PROB: 3%
Reiss Nelson
WIN PROB: 3%
Aaron Cresswell
WIN PROB: 3%
Ashley Young
WIN PROB: 3%
Kyle Walker Peters
WIN PROB: 3%
Angel Gomes
WIN PROB: 3%
Angus Gunn
WIN PROB: 3%
Hamza Choudhury
WIN PROB: 3%
Joe Willock
WIN PROB: 3%
Max Aarons
WIN PROB: 3%
Ronaldo Vieira
WIN PROB: 3%
Tom Davies
WIN PROB: 3%
Jonjo Shelvey
WIN PROB: 3%
John Lundstram
WIN PROB: 2%
Nathan Redmond
WIN PROB: 2%
Jamaal Lascelles
WIN PROB: 2%
Troy Deeney
WIN PROB: 2%
Dan Burn
WIN PROB: 2%