England v Italy Betting: Back the Maguire double to land for the third time in four games

The last few days have felt surreal for England fans, as for the majority it’s uncharted territory of seeing the Three Lions reach a major final for the first time. Just Italy now stand between England lifting the trophy for which they are the favourites to do so at 4/5.

We’ve picked out a bet for the game that has caught our eye after already landing twice in England’s last three games. It concerns Harry Maguire who’s been a rock at the back for England in the knockout stages and we’re backing him to be carded and have one shot on target at the boosted price of 12/1 with Paddy Power.

First up a bit of team news and Federico Chiesa is a slight doubt form Italy after being forced off in the win over Spain. If unavailable, Domenico Berardi will step in for Robert Mancini’s men who can be backed at even money to lift the trophy. Emerson will continue at left-back for the injured Leonardo Spinazzola who was an integral part of Italy’s journey to the final. 

Gareth Southgate may well opt for the same back-four once again, however the main decision appears to be will Jadon Sancho potentially come in for Bukayo Saka alongside Raheem Sterling and Harry Kane as part of a front-three.

Maguire to be carded

Readers of my ramblings on BettingOdds.com will be beginning to think I’m starting to sound like a bit of a broken record with the amount of times I’ve backed Harry Maguire to be carded this season, but while he keeps on delivering I’ll be making the most of it. 

Since the start of last season Maguire's stats for club and country now read 19 yellow cards in 62 appearances. Four yellows have been shown when playing for England and time and time again we see him burst out of defence and go through the back of an opposition defender. I do think Maguire’s yellow card against Denmark was harsh, as he tried to get up for a header from a corner but cannot get away from having him for a booking in the final.

Only John McGinn picked up more bookings in the league than Maguire who averaged 1.2 fouls per game across all formats last season. Bjorn Kulpers will be the referee for the game, who in 2016 was reportedly worth £11.5m and was known as the ‘World's Richest Ref’ after owning his town's Supermarket, hair salon and a number of other shops. Kulpers averaged just 2.00 yellows per game in the Eredivisie last term and 3.11 per game across the nine Champions League games he took charge of. At Euro 2021 the dutch official has brandished ten yellows across three games. 

Maguire to test Donnarumma

Both of Harry Maguire’s goals for England in major tournaments have been set-piece headers that have come in quarter-finals, against Sweden in 2018, and against Ukraine in 2021. However punters looking to back him to score a header may be interested to know that only four of his eight Premier League goals in the last four seasons have come via his head.

A towering threat in the opposition penalty area, Maguire hit the target twice against Denmark in the semi-finals and we’re backing him just to have one or more against Italy in the final. In total the Manchester United captain has hit the target 4 times at Euro 2021 having made four appearances. The only game where he failed to hit the target was against the Czech Republic and he is in fact a bigger price at 12/5 for 1+ shot on target with Betfair than he was against Denmark at 15/8.

12/1 for the Final

Having a look back at Maguire’s data over the and this bet of him to be carded and have a shot on target has actually landed five times in this year with two of those being at Euro 2021. Furthermore, in the 18 matches for club and country in which Maguire has been shown a yellow card since the start of last season, only five of those failed to see him have a shot.

Maguire has picked up six yellows in his last 11 matches for club and country and despite him being the shortest he has been for a booking in the last 12 months, with a record like that and a major trophy on the line, we are happy to include him to be shown a card off Bjorn Kulpers.

After being around 9/2 with most firms at the start of last season Maguire is just a top price of 5/2 with bet365 to be carded in the final. Instead we’re opting for him to have a shot on target and be carded which is now available at 12/1 having been boosted from 10/1. 

This selection landed against both Germany at 18/1 and against Denmark at 11/1 and is available in the requested prices section on the Paddy Power site. Best of luck to those following the selections. It’s certainly been a tournament to remember and let’s hope England can finish off the job.

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