England vs Japan Betting Tips: Predictions as Red Rose return

England proved plenty of people, including this humble scribe, wrong emphatically last weekend with a gritty win over Argentina to kick off their Rugby World Cup quest in perfect fashion. Although no tries were scored, the Red Rose did manage to control the game for long periods despite being a man down after Tom Curry's farcically harsh red card. Curry will miss out through suspension in Nice which is a blow but England should have enough to make it played two, won two...

England will be forced into at least one change for their second game of the 2023 Rugby World Cup with Tom Curry suspended, but pundits and past players alike seem to be united in thinking that Steve Borthwick should go with the mantra "if it ain't broke, don't fix it". Owen Farrell is still suspended and so week 1 hero George Ford, who kicked six penalties and three drop goals to help England to their try-less 27-10 win over Los Pumas, will keep his place at fly half and we don't expect much rotation anywhere else on the field.

The Cherry Blossoms of Japan are renowned in world rugby for playing an expansive style of rugby with ball in hand, largely due to the influence of former coach Eddie Jones, who also had a spell in charge of England when they played some swashbuckling stuff. England will have to be alert to quell the dangers Japan present but this is not the strongest Japanese squad to grace a World Cup and with confidence now up after the Argentina win, expect England to keep the good times rolling and collect the points here in this Pool D clash.

As much as England will be feeling buoyed by last weekend's win in trying circumstances when written off by many, there are still plenty of holes in the argument this is a team good enough to win a World Cup. The main sticking point for most is that despite a decent looking team on paper, out on the field the attacking structure looks seriously clunky and one dimensional. Borthwick is a pragmatist at heart when it comes to his coaching philosophy and if every game were to be like the last against Argentina, with England kicking their opponents to death, he would be a happy man.

What this does lend itself to is even in games England are expected to win, like this one, the score line could easily look more dangerous than the flow of the game actually shows. George Ford clearly has brought his kicking boots across the Channel and I'd expect him to be taking three points at every opportunity here once again, but England need to start creating more and scoring five pointers. Japan, on the other hand, do not struggle in this department and so with these facts in mind I'm happy to dip into a market I am not often found in and back the winning margin.

England to win by 11-15 points looks a touch of value at 7/1 with William Hill, as although they should dominate territory and possession while also winning the kicking battle, points are hard to come by for the Red Rose whereas Japan can score from anywhere. I was tempted to split stakes and back England 16-20 as well at the same price, but we will stick with just the 11-15 margin as the main play.

For the second bet we will venture to the player props and I'm keen to have Japan's double scoring hero from last weekend's win over Chile Amato Fakatava onside. The Cherry Blossom's number 5 is a colossus at six foot five and is adept at crashing over the line from close range for both club and country. Although England's defence looked strong against Los Pumas last week, the Argentinians were unbelievably flat throughout the contest and I'd expect Japan to trouble England a lot more with their flamboyant and unpredictable style of attack.

England's defenders could be preoccupied by Japan's shape and not notice the lurking presence of the hulking second rower Fakatava sniffing out more opportunities for points near the opposition danger zone. His price is just about generous enough to tempt me in at X/X. The backrower is in a rich vein of try scoring form after two against Chile and one apiece against Samoa and Tonga in the earlier Pacific Nations Cup. This takes his tally to four in his last four, and I'd fancy him to score if anyone is going to breach the England defence for Japan.