College Football Week 1 Predictions: Odds and Tips Including LSU vs Florida State and Florida at Utah
Our resident American Football tipsters Sam and Matt preview the opening weekend of the 2023 College Football season, including No. 5 LSU vs No. 8 Florida State, Florida at No. 14 Utah, South Carolina at No. 21 North Carolina, Colorado at No. 17 TCU, Virginia vs No. 12 Tennessee and West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State.
No. 5 LSU vs No. 8 Florida State
Odds and Gamelines via Bet365:
Moneyline: LSU 20/27, FSU 23/20
Spread: LSU -2.5, 10/11
Points Total: Over/Under 56.5, 10/11
Last year’s season opener against the Seminoles ended in disappointment for LSU. After driving 99 yards into Florida State’s endzone, the Tigers saw the game-tying extra point blocked and fell to a 24-23 defeat. But that drive was a catalyst for them, as they bounced back to beat fierce rivals Alabama and win the SEC West, eventually losing out to Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
Florida State went on to have their best season since 2016 as QB Jordan Travis led them to double-digit wins, and is among top talent like Jared Verse returning to the Seminoles for 2023. Travis led the 10th-ranked total offence in 2022 and they return 8 starters in 2023 as they’re poised to challenge Clemson at the top of the ACC.
With lots of returning talent and Brian Kelly entering his second year at the helm, LSU will be a more daunting prospect than last year. Heisman candidate Jayden Daniels returns at QB, as does his favourite receiving target Malik Nabers and five starters on the offensive line. Defensively, sophomore Harold Perkins is set to build upon his promising freshman season and is a potential future top-five pick in the NFL draft. LSU are without standout defensive lineman Maason Smith who is suspended for Week 1, but should still have enough returning talent to overcome the Seminoles.
Florida at No.14 Utah
Game Lines via PaddyPower:
Moneyline: Utah 4/9, Florida 13/8
Spread: Utah -4.5, 4/5
Points Total: Over/Under 44.5, 4/5
A rematch of last year’s season opener for both teams, after Florida edged Utah 29-26 in Anthony Richardson’s short-lived Heisman campaign. Richardson has since gone on to be drafted 4th overall by the Colts in the 2023 NFL Draft and left Billy Napier to dissect what was a disappointing debut season as Head Coach of the Gators.
Utah are led by QB Cam Rising and a strong Head Coach in Kyle Whittingham, who led the Utes to a Rose Bowl birth against Penn State in 2022. That ended in disappointment for the Utes, losing by a couple of touchdowns to the Nittany Lions, but more consequential was the ACL tear Rising suffered. His status is still unknown heading into the Week 1 matchup, nine months on from the injury, but he is currently listed as QB1 on Utah’s depth chart with no injury designation. If Rising is playing and healthy, I struggle to see how the Gators leave Salt Lake City with the win.
Veteran Graham Mertz, a transfer from Wisconsin, is expected to start for the Gators, with no real eye-catching stats to place faith in. Despite Napier continuing to have success in recruiting, this is a Gators roster in transition with a brutal upcoming schedule including Tennessee, Georgia, LSU, and Florida State. Including Utah, that’s five of the preseason top 15. Year 3 will be the real barometer for Napier’s Florida, but without a winning record or a big win or two, he may find himself on the hot seat.
Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne will need to have big days running the ball to help Mertz settle in against a fierce Utes defence, but if Rising is playing, it’s hard to be optimistic about Florida’s chances.
South Carolina at No. 21 North Carolina
Odds and Gamelines via PaddyPower:
Moneyline: North Carolina 4/6, South Carolina 11/10
Spread: North Carolina -2.5, 4/5
Points Total: Over/Under 64.5, 5/6
One of the premier Week 1 games of 2023 sees two historic border rivals go head-to-head. Spencer Rattler and the Gamecocks finished 2022 on a strong note, ending any hope of Tennessee making the CFB Playoffs as they put 60 past the Volunteers before defeating Clemson.
North Carolina returns one of the top QB prospects of 2023 in Drake Maye, who threw for over 4300 yards and 38 touchdowns in 2022 and has aspirations of the Heisman and being a top pick in the NFL Draft. UNC ended 2022 on a sour note, losing their last four games, but have a clean slate and top QB who’s had an offseason to refine his already impressive skillset.
Home-field advantage could be massive in this one, as Rattler will find himself in a hostile environment. If the Gamecocks can replicate some of their strong defensive showings from the start of 2022, they have a chance to knock Maye out of his rhythm. But this one will come down to which QB has the better day, and it’s hard to look beyond Drake Maye in a head-to-head matchup with Rattler.
Colorado at No. 17 TCU
Odds Game Lines via Bet365:
Moneyline: TCU 1/10, Colorado 13/2
Spread: TCU -20.5, 10/11
Points Total: Over/Under 63.5, 10/11
Colorado has been the focus of many analysts and journalists since the 2022 season ended. Following a horrific 1-11 season, the athletic department decided Deion Sanders was the man to turn the program around. Along with the arrival of Coach Prime came a complete overhaul of the roster, 75 new players including Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, and a nauseating amount of media coverage.
Despite all of the buzz and hype that comes along with Deion Sanders, one thing cannot be overlooked. Coach Prime has a monumental job on his hands to get Colorado to be a competitive program again before their move to the BIG 12. Expectations, rightfully, should be tempered. Their win-total line is only 3.5, and their schedule features tough opposition in the likes of Oregon, USC, Utah, Oregon State, a revitalised Nebraska, and their Week 1 opponents, National Championship runners-up TCU.
Against all expectations, the Horned Frogs made the National Championship game in Head Coach Sonny Dykes first season, including a memorable win over Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl. The top three offensive players in Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, and Quentin Johnston have moved on, as has offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. Chandler Morris is set to start at QB, and a trio of Alabama transfers in receiver JoJo Earle, running back Trey Sanders, and lineman Tommy Brockermeyer will help Morris settle in.
Whilst three touchdowns is a large spread, expect Dykes and TCU to bring Coach Prime and Colorado back down to Earth and be a reminder that a long season awaits them.
Virginia vs. No. 12 Tennessee
Game Lines via PaddyPower:
Moneyline: Tennessee 1/66, Virginia 11/1
Spread: Tennessee -27.5, 5/6
Points Total: Over/Under 56.5, 4/5
Following the win over Alabama, 2022 was looking like a magical season for Tennessee, evoking some knee-jerk comparisons to LSU’s storybook 2019 season. Whilst a loss to Georgia was a reality check for the Vols, it was a night in Columbia against Spencer Rattler’s South Carolina which broke Vol hearts. Hendon Hooker's dominant season ended with an ACL tear and the Gamecocks putting up 60 on the Vols, ending any hopes of making the playoffs.
However, it was still a season to be proud of for the Vols, and there is still cause for optimism heading into 2023, even if standouts like Hooker, tenth overall pick Darnell Wright and wide receivers Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman moved on to the NFL. Head Coach Josh Heupel will be looking to integrate Joe Milton and his rocket arm into his offensive system in a similar manner to Hooker with receiver Bru McCoy set for a big year. Improvements are needed on the defence if Tennessee wants to take that next step, after ranking 127th in passing yards allowed in 2022.
Tony Elliot’s second season as Virginia Head Coach isn’t set to be any easier following their 3-7 record in 2022, which ended with the tragic on-campus shooting and deaths of three of their players. The Cavaliers return just nine starters across offence and defence, but six of these are on the defensive side of the ball which will have to prop up a struggling offence at times. An opener against Milton’s huge arm and Huepels system is as tough as it gets in Week 1, but Elliot will look for small wins and any signs of momentum the Cavaliers can build upon for the rest of the year.
West Virginia at No. 7 Penn State
Game Lines via Bet365:
Moneyline: Penn State 1/15, West Virginia 9/1
Spread: Penn State -20.5, 10/11
Points Total: Over/Under 50.5, 10/11
Under James Franklin, Penn State has been one of the most consistent programs in the country for the past decade and signs point to another strong year for the Nittany Lions. Veteran QB Sean Clifford has moved on after starting the previous four years, but sophomore Drew Allar brings optimism to University Park as his replacement and is lingering around the top ten in odds for the Heisman Trophy.
Kalen King will step up to lead the defence following the losses of Joey Porter and Ji’Ayir Brown to the NFL. King was considered by many outlets to be an All-American and looks to be the focal point on a defence that always competes and is set to be one of the toughest in the country.
West Virginia will be leaning heavily on running the ball, building on CJ Donaldson’s impressive start to his freshman season which was cut short by injury. However, they’re up against a mean defensive front, and if the run game is bottled up, it could be a long day for the Mountaineers trying to move the ball through the air.
On the defence, Jordan Jefferson’s transfer to LSU is a blow for the Mountaineers, who will need veteran linebacker Lee Kpogba to lead the way and help bed in a defence lacking experience. Expect this one to be a learning experience for West Virginia as Penn State eases to victory.