Chelsea v Aston Villa Prediction: Mings set for a physical battle against Lukaku

Saturday’s evening kick-off in the Premier Leagues sees Chelsea welcome Aston Villa to Stamford Bridge at 17:30. 

In the grand scheme of things, the hosts are amidst a transitional period given the seismic transfer business that took place over the summer so the slow start - in comparison to the one they made last campaign - was perhaps expected. Therefore, the international break came at a perfect time for Dean Smith and his squad as it would have given them some much-needed respite and some time to work on imposing his philosophy. 

That being said a large chunk of the core of their squad did represent their nation and the South American contingency - Emi Buendia and Emi Martinez - certainly ran into some difficulties in Brazil. The Argentine pair will miss this fixture. This could see Smith switch up tactically and opt for a five at the back - as has been the case in other one of big fixtures - to provide more defensive solidarity at the back to protect Jed Steer in between the sticks.

Five at the back would also enable Villa to field both Danny Ings and Ollie Watkins upfront together. The industrious pair are extremely hard working and deceptively quick which will bode well for the visitors in a game where they will have to play on the counter and endure large spells without the ball. 

The hosts also have a squad crippled with injury and suspension. Rumour has it that Romelu Lukaku and Kai Havertz are carrying knocks so the pair will undergo late fitness tests. N'Golo Kanté is also touch and go and Reece James is suspended following his red card at Anfield. 

Odds-wise, the hosts are the obvious favourites here priced at 2/7 which appears to be perfectly apt given the Blues have won 77% of their games when priced accordingly and the implied probability of this price is 78%.

Since Thomas Tuchel took over at Stamford Bridge, his side have won 62% of their 34 games in all competitions. Interestingly, 17 of those victories were by a scoreline of one or two nil, therefore, exactly half of Chelsea’s fixtures under Tuchel’s tutelage have been won by one of these scorelines. Therefore, at odds of 6/1 and 11/2, I make dutching these two correct score lines a valuable play here.

For those unaware, dutching is a gambling term that describes splitting a set stake over a number of selections to ensure you make a similar amount of money should they win. In this case you could have Chelsea win to nil, however, over the long term backing these score lines would be more profitable. 

Tactically, thus far during his stint at Stamford Bridge, the Barvarian supremo has looked to kill opponents with possession. This often means the Blues control the tempo of their fixtures which is why we often see them win games via low score lines. The only caveat to these selections is that Villa have found the net during their last four head-to-head fixtures against the Blues. 

Over the course of his career, Tyrone Mings has racked up 31 cards in 160 appearances. In the top flight and second tier he has averaged 0.22 cards per 90, therefore Unibet’s price does represent a slight bit of value as it is and that is without considering who he is expected to be tasked with marking. 

In the EPL he has 7Y and 1R to his name and if you look at the calibre of players he usually picks up cards against - the likes of Patrick Bamford, Aleksandar Mitrović, Christian Benteke and Joelinton - you get the sense that he certainly enjoys a scrap. Therefore, I think he will be licking his lips at the prospect of going toe-to-toe with Romelu Lukaku.  

So far this season, Mings has played three games and picked up two bookings as he was carded at Vicarage Road and recently picked one up on international duty vs Andorra which illustrates the menacing start he has made to the new campaign.

Although it is rumoured that Lukaku is carrying a knock, if he does feature here it will be from the off and a very tasty, physical battle should proceed between him and the Villa centre backs. 

In his debut at the Emirates, both Holding and Mari went into the book as they simply could not contain big Rom so combining my previous selection of Mings with his expected partner in defence looks like a nice way in at 25/1 with bet365. 

It is worth noting that Ezri Konsa has averaged just 0.13 cards per 90 over the course of his career, however this angle is more about his direct opponent than his surprisingly clean disciplinary record. 

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.