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Charlton v Millwall Tips: Little to separate this south London duo at The Valley

Matt Smith to find the target features in our trio of bets for this south London derby between Charlton & Millwall.
Matt Smith to find the target features in our trio of bets for this south London derby between Charlton & Millwall.

There's a south London derby in the Championship this Friday, as promotion-chasers Millwall make the short journey to the Valley to take on relegation-threatened Charlton. Kick-off is at 8:15pm and the match will be shown live on Sky Sports. 

This game is huge for both sides for very different reasons, with Lee Bowyer's hosts just four points above the danger zone, and Millwall just five short of sneaking into the play-offs. 

The Lions enter this match on the back of two draws against Barnsley and Swansea, while Charlton have taken seven points from a potential nine in their last three league games since the restart. 

Despite recent form it is the visitors who head into this one as 5/4 favourites, given a 44% chance of victory, while Charlton can be found at 5/2 for the win, a 29% implied chance of victory by the bookmakers.

Lewis Page & Jonathan Leko (Charlton), and Aiden O'Brien & Jon Dadi Bodvarsson (Millwall) will all miss this game through injury, but aside from that both managers should have a full squad to choose from.

Our three betting tips for the anticipated fixture are listed below.

Charlton v Millwall Tip #1
20:15
Full-time draw
  • Both sides have found it difficult to score since the restart, with both drawing their last matches
  • This game is expected to be a very close affair
Odds correct as of 2020-07-02 14:50 Odds subject to change.

I’m anticipating an extremely tight game at The Valley this Friday, between two sides who have found scoring goals a little difficult since the Championship restarted last month.

Charlton, fighting for their lives at the wrong end of the table, may have won two of their previous three games but they have done so by the narrowest of margins both times, beating Hull and QPR 1-0 before drawing with Cardiff 0-0 last weekend. 

Millwall played out a five-goal thriller with Derby on their return to action, losing 3-2 to the Rams at The Den, but have since drawn 0-0 with Barnsley and 1-1 with Swansea, so I can potentially see another draw on the cards in this one.

Both of these sides are among the division’s lowest scorers having netted just 46 goals (Charlton) and 47 goals (Millwall) so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this game settled by a low-scoring draw.

Boylesports have the draw priced up at 2/1, so you’re getting slightly better value backing this particular bet with Betfair at 21/10.

Charlton v Millwall Tip #2
20:15
Matt Smith 2+ SOT, Darren Pratley to be booked
  • Matt Smith is Millwall's top scorer with 12 goals
  • Pratley is Charlton's most booked player with 11 yellows
Odds correct as of 2020-07-02 14:50 Odds subject to change.

Matt Smith is Millwall’s biggest attacking threat having notched 12 league goals this season. The 31-year-old started and scored in the 3-2 defeat to Derby but has been limited to cameo appearances off the bench during the last two weeks, with Tom Bradshaw lining up ahead of him in a front-three for Gary Rowett’s side. 

However, with only one goal scored in those two games and no wins, Smith could be recalled to the starting-eleven for this game, with Rowett utilising his aerial presence and strength to its full potential in a south London derby that is expected to be very physical. If Smith does start, I fancy him to cause Charlton some issues, especially from set pieces. 

I’m doubling this selection up with notorious offender Darren Pratley to be booked. The veteran midfielder has picked up 11 yellow cards this season - more than any other Addicks player - and though his position in the starting XI is not 100% guaranteed due to the options Lee Bowyer has available to him in the middle of the park, it is likely that he will be called upon due to this match being a hard-fought derby which requires the strongest personnel available.

I’m anticipating a feisty encounter here, with Pratley right in the middle of things and at an appealing 6/1 (boosted from 4/1), this bet has certainly got potential. 

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Charlton v Millwall Tip #3
20:15
Under 3.5 goals, Bradshaw to score anytime & Jed Wallace to be booked
  • Charlton & Millwall are two of the lowest-scoring sides in the Championship
  • Tom Bradshaw has 8 goals this season and will be itching to return to scoring ways
  • Jed Wallace is Millwall's second-most booked player this season (7)
Odds correct as of 2020-07-02 14:50 Odds subject to change.

As mentioned previously, I’m expecting this game to be a very close-knit affair, with both sides finding it hard to find the net of late. They are two of the lowest-scoring outfits in the Championship this season which suggests that we’re not in for a thriller here; therefore, I’m confident in backing under 3.5 match goals.

Jed Wallace is one of Millwall’s brightest attacking sparks and has contributed a stunning 10 goals and 10 league assists for the Lions this season. Indeed, the wide man is also the club’s second-most booked player having seen yellow seven times this season, and leading the press from the front in a fiery derby like this could see him stick out a leg and commit a silly foul, thus earning him his eighth yellow of the campaign.

Live in-play scores

Tom Bradshaw has been the preferred choice for manager Gary Rowett up front in recent weeks and while he hasn’t had much joy since the restart, if he does manage to keep his place up top for Millwall here he will be itching to return to scoring ways.

The Welshman has netted eight league goals so far this season and is such a threat in the final third, making darting runs into the channel and picking up loose balls.

Bradshaw is a defender’s nightmare; he’s quick, agile and never stops running. Most importantly though, he is a proven goalscorer and after a slight dry spell will be keen as mustard to etch his name back onto the scoresheet in a high-profile derby game like this.

Overall, this bet is priced up at 25/1 with Paddy Power (boosted from 18/1) and I’m liking the look of it as a longshot selection. As always please gamble responsibly, and I hope you thoroughly enjoy the game.

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