Championship Top Scorer Odds 22/23: Pukki the 7/1 favourite to scoop award for second time in career

The Championship season is now just 11 days away, with Huddersfield hosting Burnley in the opening fixture on Friday 29 July. Aleksandar Mitrovic set a new record for the most goals scored in a single season in 2021/2022 by netting on 43 occasions, and today at BettingOdds.com, we’ve decided to take a look at the top goalscorer market for the forthcoming campaign. 

Below, we’ve taken a look back at the top performers from last season, along with the favourites for 2022/2023, as well as highlighting a few selections we like the look of. It’s also worth remembering that most bookmakers are offering four places each-way at 1/4 odds on this market.

2022/2023 Favourites

At the head of the betting is Norwich striker Teemu Pukki who can be found at 7/1 with Betfred. Despite his side finishing bottom of the Premier League last season, Pukki still managed 11 goals. The Finn has proven pedigree at this level, winning the award in 2018/2019 when he scored 29 goals, as well as his most recent campaign in England’s second tier in 2020/2021 when he managed 26 goals in 41 appearances. 

The future of Watford’s Emmanuel Dennis remains uncertain after speculation linking him with a move to Everton, although at the time of writing he’s a 10/1 poke to be the top Championship scorer this season. Swansea’s Michael Obafemi comes next at 12/1 after his 12 goals in just 20 starts last season for the Welsh side. 

Steve Bruce’s West Brom are fancied to challenge for promotion this season and their American forward Daryl Dike is just 12/1 to finish with the most goals this time round. Blackburn’s Ben Brereton Diaz follows Dike in the market at the slightly bigger price of 14/1. It’s worth noting that Brereton Diaz was as big as 150/1 in this market 12 months ago, with several firms taking no chances this time round pricing him as short as 9/1.

No player has scored more goals in Championship history than Billy Sharp with 128. The Blades bagsman is 16/1 in this market, with his side expected to perform better this season at just 3/1 to make it back to the Premier League. Karlan Grant, Rey Manaj, and Joel Piroe are all also priced at 16’s with Betfred, and round off those towards the top of the betting. 

xG Clues

Put into its most simplest form, xG or expected goals is the probability that a shot will result in a goal. This is based on the characteristics of the shot that is taken and the events leading up to it. It might not be for everyone, but Expected Goals (xG) can allow us to make projections and below we’ve included the players who amassed the most xG last season.

2021/2022 xG leaders

• 35.9xG - Aleksandar Mitrovic - Goals: 43
• 32.5xG - Dominic Solanke - Goals: 29
• 20.2xG - Karlan Grant - Goals: 20
• 20.1xG - Ben Brereton Diaz - Goals: 22
• 19.2xG - Viktor Gyokeres - Goals: 17
• 16.1xG - Elijah Adebayo - Goals: 16
• 15.3xG - Andreas Weimann - Goals: 22
• 14.6xG - Billy Sharp - Goals: 14
• 14.2xG - Chris Martin - Goals: 12
• 13.5xG - Emil Riis Jakobsen: Goals 16

2021/2022 Top Scorers

Who to back this season?

It may not be the most eye-watering of prices but we think it’s pretty hard to stay away from Teemu Pukki this season. Norwich were lacklustre for large proportions of last season but their talisman still managed more than twice the amount of goals as players such as Timo Werner and Marcus Rashford.  

In Dean Smith, the Canaries have a manager who has taken a side up to the Premier League in the past and they looked well equipped to make a serious assault on the division in the season ahead. Norwich have also signed their first ever Brazilian player in Gabriel Sara from Sao Paulo, and his creativity along with players such as Todd Cantwell and Max Aarons can provide plenty of assists for Pukki. In 2020/2021 the now 32-year-old finished with 26 league goals, with only Adam Armsrong (28) and Ivan Toney (31), bagging more that season. At 7/1 each-way with four places available, Pukki looks the man to be on in this market should he remain injury free. 

Blackburn may have only made one signing so far this transfer window, but holding on to Ben Brereton Diaz could prove to be pivotal this summer. The Stoke-born Chilean netted 22 goals in 37 matches last season, but did pick up a couple of small injuries in the second half of the campaign.

Diaz ticks a lot of boxes, being the penalty taker for Blackburn who start a new era under manager Jon Dahl Tomasson after five years with Tony Mowbray at the helm. The Danish head coach will look to play a high-press intensive style of football and Brereton goals will be key to how high he can finish in his first season managing in England. With Reda Khadra and Joe Rothwell no longer at the club, Diaz should also be one of the main free-kick takers, and in fact scored one in a friendly with Celtic last weekend. Betfred look to be a stand-out price of 14/1 on BBD which looks a lot more appealing than the 9’s on shop with most firms.