Burnley vs. Newcastle Predictions: Two value picks from the Shots on Target market

Burnley take on Newcastle at Turf Moor in the final round of fixtures in the Premier League as the Clarets look to secure their top-flight status for another season. Here at BettingOdds.com, we’ve previewed the game and provided you with two bets that we like the look of. 

Mike Jackson’s side took a massive point from their game with Aston Villa on Thursday evening which moved them out of the relegation zone, above Leeds on goal difference. Burnley now need to match or better the result of the West Yorkshire side's game against Brentford in the capital on Sunday to avoid relegation. Burnley are priced at 9/4 to be playing Championship football next season heading into the weekend. 

Newcastle could finish as high as tenth here with a win on the final day, which would round off an excellent second half of the season under Eddie Howe. It’s been a remarkable turnaround in the North East and the Magpies also have the advantage of not having played midweek, giving them much more time to prepare for this game. 

James Tarkowski returned earlier than expected from injury to start the game against Aston Villa and should be fine from the off here again at Turf Moor. Centre-back companion Ben Mee however, is still on the treatment table and will miss the game along with Ashley Westwood and Matt Lowton who is suspended after his red card on Thursday.

Kieran Trippier could make his first start since the second week of February after being on the bench for Newcastle’s win over Arsenal on Monday evening. Jonjo Shelvey and Jo Willock are both sidelined and will miss the trip to East Lancashire.

It will be interesting to see how Burnley approach this game on Sunday. Against Villa on Thursday, they seemed happy with a point and very much encouraged the home side onto them with Burnley only having 28.7% possession. This suited the Clarets, despite Villa having nine shots on target, and we expect similar against Newcastle which should lead to plenty of shots from the visitors.

Bruno Guimaraes has been growing in confidence week by week over the last few months, most recently grabbing himself a goal against Arsenal on Monday evening. That takes his tally to five goals in just 10 league starts for the Toon since arriving in January and we are surprised to see him priced at odds-against to have at least one shot on target against Burnley.

BetVictor go 23/20 for this selection while most of the other big firms go odds-on. The Brazilian has registered eight shots on target across his last six appearances for Newcastle, with this bet landing in five of his last six!

Another play we like the look of from the shots on target market is Burnley’s Nathan Collins to have one or more in the match. This time with Paddy Power or Betfair, priced at 7/2. Those odds imply just a 22% chance of this selection landing and we think there’s a case to be made for that price being a shade too big.

Collins has had a good run in the side due to the injury to Ben Mee, putting in some strong performances to help his side to some key results at a crucial point of the season. The defender has also been a threat in the opposition box and has taken at least one shot in all seven of his home matches for Burnley that he has started this season!

When it comes to hitting the target, Collins has done so in five of his last six at Turf Moor. If Burnley are losing this game and news filters through of Leeds winning against Brentford it could well lead to some desperate urgency from Jackson’s side and it would be no surprise to see Collins marauding forward in search of a goal to keep them in the division. 

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