Burnley vs. Aston Villa Predictions: Coutinho to hit the target in 33/1 longshot

Burnley will look to widen the gap between themselves and the relegation zone on Saturday afternoon and we’ve got @AnthonyEadson on hand to provide us with a preview for the game along with his best bets.

It’s been quite a dramatic turnaround for the Clarets in recent weeks. The departure of Sean Dyche after a decade at the helm sent shockwaves around East Lancashire, but since then under the guidance of caretaker manager Mike Jackson they have managed to pick up points.

It’s three wins on the bounce for Burnley and if Everton hadn’t grabbed a shock three points against Chelsea last weekend things would have been looking a lot more rosy. That result means making it four in a row is very much necessary here for Burnley. 

Aston Villa and Steven Gerrard still have hopes of a top half finish this season but they will need to pick up points against Burnley if they wish to do so, considering that they still have to face Manchester City and Liverpool.

Prior to last week’s 2-0 home win over Norwich, Gerrard’s men had gone five without a win in the league, losing four of those. Leon Bailey was forced off before half time in that victory over the Canaries and is expected to miss out here along with Kortney Hause and Morgan Sanson.

The home side could be without as many as six players for this vital game including; Ben Mee, Ashley Westwood and Jay Rodriguez. Maxwel Cornet remains a doubt but should at the least have a place on the bench.

It’s no secret quite how different Burnley’s last five fixtures have been in comparison to the majority of this season. Mike Jackson’s men have hit form at just the right time with wins over Watford, Wolves and Southampton as well as a point away at West Ham in their last four matches. 

With the prospect of safety now within their sights, I’m expecting another big performance at Turf Moor on Saturday, and the first selection I’ve been drawn towards is centre-back Nathan Collins to have a shot in the match, priced at 17/20 with BetVictor. It may be worth shopping around on the day with Coral also fluctuating around even money on this selection. 

No other team in the league has had a higher proportion of their goals arrive via set pieces this season than Burnley, who have seen a whopping 35% come via this method. Since Ben Mee’s injury, Nathan Collins has made nine appearances and in that period has recorded ten shots. This selection has landed in the seven of the last nine for Collins and with quotes of just south of even money and Burnley facing a Villa side who haven’t been in the greatest form lately, I think this looks a wise bet. Furthermore, it’s also worth noting that Collins has recorded at least one shot in every home game he has started this season (6/6).

Besides my main play on Nathan Collins, I’ll also be having a couple of quid on a rather tasty looking 33/1 poke with Paddy Power. This selection has been boosted from around 28/1 and can be added to your betslip by clicking the link above. 

It’s a three-pronged punt that consists of Philippe Coutinho & James Tarkowski both to have a shot on target, along with Josh Brownhill to be carded. I’ll start off with the Brazilian, who has taken more shots than any other player since his arrival in the midlands. The former Liverpool man has recorded nine shots on target in his last nine for Villa, with this selection landing in seven of those. 

After having explained above how Burnley have scored a higher percentage of their goals from set-pieces than any other side this season, I’ve also taken a lean towards James Tarkowski in the shots market, this time, backing him to hit the target. 

The 29-year-old has made 32 appearances and registered six shots in total. With this in mind quotes of around 4/1 don’t exactly scream value for him to have a shot on target on Saturday. However, five of his six shots on target have come at Turf Moor with this selection landing in five of his 17 appearances on home soil. Odds of 7/2 imply just a 22% chance of this bet landing and with it having occurred in 29% of Tarkowski’s home matches this term, again I feel we are getting bang for our buck. 

Rounding off this 33/1 longshot is Josh Brownhill to be carded. The central midfielder has picked up nine cautions in just 28 starts for Burnley in 2021/2022. Only four players, including teammate Tarkowski, have picked up more yellows than Brownhill this season and another boost here is that David Coote will be the referee in charge. Of all the officials to take control of ten or more top-flight matches this season, Coote has the highest yellow cards ratio, showing 4.68 per game on average. 

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