Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool Predictions: Back Salah to strike on the south coast

Saturday’s early kick-off in the Premier League sees Liverpool travel to the south coast to take on Brighton at the Amex. Our man @AnthonyEadson is on hand to preview the game and bring us his best bets as the Reds look to close the gap on leaders Manchester City.

Graham Potter’s side have been on a poor run of results in recent weeks with four straight losses. Their latest defeat came at home to Newcastle via a 2-1 scoreline last weekend and prior to that the Seagulls had not scored in their previous three.

On the other hand, Brighton are unbeaten in their last three meetings against Liverpool and are one of only three sides to come away from Anfield with anything this season, along with Manchester City and Chelsea. The Brighton boss confirmed Adam Webster remains sidelined until after the International break, while Neal Maupay and Yves Bissouma are both looking for a recall to the starting XI.

Liverpool booked their place in the Champions League quarter-finals this week, although they were beaten 1-0 on home turf by Inter Milan in the second leg. That defeat ended a run of 12 straight victories in all competitions, if you include the win on penalties against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup, and Jurgen Klopp will be looking to get back to winning ways immediately here. 

Roberto Firmino was not quite up to match fitness for the midweek game against Inter but should at least make the bench for the trip to Brighton. Mohamed Salah, Luis Diaz, and Sadio Mane are expected to be Liverpool’s front-three in the must-win game in order to keep their title hopes alive. 

Liverpool’s Mo Salah is seven goals clear in the top-goalscorer standings this season and is also the current 1/5 favourite to be named the PFA player of the year. For my first selection in this match I’m backing the Egyptian to score anytime and have 2+ shots on target. This is available at 6/4 with Paddy Power and can be added to your betslip by clicking the link above. 

It’s been an outstanding season for Salah and in the Premier League he has scored 19 goals so far. Salah has found the net in 15 of his 24 league starts and has amassed more xG throughout the campaign than any other player (20.91xG). For context the next nearest rival in that metric is his teammate Sadio Mane (14.36xG), and it’s been clear that Salah has been head and shoulders above the rest of the division when it comes to finding the net in 2021/2022. 

Mo Salah has also been one of the best players to follow in the shots on target market this season. The 29-year-old has registered 14 more shots on target than any other player in the league and has averaged 2.04 on target per game across the 25 games he’s featured in. Out of the 15 league matches that Salah has scored in, he has registered at least two shots on target in 13 of them! With this in mind and his record this season I’m happy to take the 6/4 (Implied odds - 40%) about a bet that has landed in 54% of Salah’s league matches. 

I’ve also taken a lean towards a 9/1 bet builder double on this game, that once again is available with Paddy Power or Betfair. Shane Duffy to be carded and Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 2+ shots are the selections I’ve combined here. 

Brighton’s Shane Duffy has only made 14 starts for Graham Potter’s side this season but has been shown a yellow card in seven of those! That’s an impressive strike-rate for card backers and Duffy was also booked in the reverse fixture this season at Anfield, when Brighton managed to grab themselves a point in a 2-2 draw. 

Mike Dean will be the man in the middle for this match and the former ballroom dancer and chicken factory worker has been one of the better referees for bookings over recent years. In all of the four seasons prior to this, Dean has ranked in the top-three Premier League referees when it comes to the highest yellow card per game average. This campaign he averages 3.22 per game.

The second half of this little double is Trent Alexander-Arnold to have 2+ shots. Joao Cancelo is the only defender in the league to have let off more shots this season than Liverpool’s right-back. Free-kick taker and often lurking around the edge of the opposition penalty taker, Trent has recorded 2+ shots in eight of his 13 away matches in the Premier League this season.

Trent has also recorded 2+ shots in his last two matches against West Ham and Inter Milan. Combining these two picks pays just north of 9/1 which I think looks a very reasonable price, especially in comparison to the 4/1 offering on bet365.

Please gamble responsibly.