Brentford v Fulham Tips: Knock-Knock Knockaert at Brentford's door
It feels quite fitting that the two sides who finished third and fourth in the league should face off in the play-off final. In Brentford and Fulham we have just that, after the London club’s triumphed against Cardiff and Swansea in the semi finals.
Often referred to as ‘the most valuable game in world football’ the Championship play-off final can be worth as much as £170m for the winner; the game is live on Sky Sports football and kicks off at 19:45. Having a look into the match prices and The Bees have been made the 11/10 favourites for a win inside 90 minutes with the draw being available to back at 9/4. A win for Scott Parker’s Fulham side is a current top price of 11/4 with BetVictor.
The big question for Fulham is whether or not star striker Aleksander Mitrovic will be fit and able to return to the starting line up. He did not make the bench in the second leg of the semi final against Cardiff and Scott Parker has said they are assessing him on a daily basis. Neeskens Kebano also came off at half time with a knock and he also remains a doubt for this one. There’s no doubt these two players would be a huge miss for Fulham against a Brentford side who look to be at full strength.
I managed a winner in both second legs featuring these sides and I’ll be hoping for more of the same with these three football tips for the game
Anthony Knockaert 1+ shot on target - 2pts @ 5/4 Paddy Power
Correct Score 2-0 Brentford - 0.5pts @ 9/1 BetVictor
Watkins & Onomah 1+ shot on target, Christie & Norgaard to be carded - 0.5pts @ 70/1 Paddy Power.
My first selection in this one is Fulham’s Anthony Knockaert to have one or more shots on target at 5/4 with both Betfair and Paddy Power. I put up this selection as a single last time out and Knockaert managed to hit the target after just 1 minute and 50 seconds.
His price is a little bigger than the even money that was available last week and that’s understandable against an impressively attack-minded Brentford side. However as part of a front three, I still think we have a nice way in here. After Mitrovic, nobody averages more shots per game at Fulham than Knockaert this season with 1.9.
The Frenchman let off five shots last Thursday with two of them hitting the target. We’ve seen for so many years how he likes to cut in off the right wing onto his left foot, and with such a prize on offer for the winners of this one, I think the Frenchman will be looking to shoot at any given opportunity. All things considered, the 5/4 on offer looks a respectable price and one I’ll be having a dabble on.
Next up I’m going for a correct score bet of 2-0 Brentford, that’s available at 9/1 with BetVictor.
With such big rewards being on offer it’s no surprise to see that over the years the Championship play-off final has produced generally low scoring cagey affairs.
When looking at the recent fixtures based on 90 minutes only and not extra time, only four of the last 19 finals have seen both teams score! Further to this, 13 of the last 21 games have seen under 2.5 goals match goals and despite the attacking prowess of both these sides, I see it landing again here.
The doubt over Mitrovic and Kebano and their fitness really could be key here. I think Mitrovic not even being on the bench last week says a lot. Even if he does return I don’t think there’s any way that five days later he can be truly fully-fit. Brentford have been electric going forward this season scoring more than anyone else in the Championship with 80 goals. Thomas Frank has already beaten Fulham twice this season and I think that the front three of Said Benrahma, Ollie Watkins and Bryan Mbuemo will be enough to see them through here. 9/1 for a 2-0 win for the Bees is currently the top price available at the time of writing and one I’ll be having a nibble on for the game.
I always like to put up something at a big price for the more optimistic of punters and this time I’m going with Ollie Watkins & Josh Onomah to have 1 or more shots on target with Cryrus Christie and Christian Norgaard to be carded at 70/1, available with both Betfair and Paddy Power.
I’m starting things off with Ollie Watkins to find the target inside 90 minutes. He’s had a magnificent season for Brentford, scoring 26 league goals in the process. He’s averaged over a shot on target per game this season (1.1) and I see no reason why he can’t do so again here at Wembley.
With so much doubt over the fitness of both Aleksandar Mitrovic and Neeskens Kebano, I’ve opted for Josh Onomah to have a shot on target for Fulham. He’s been playing behind Bobby Reid supporting the forward in the most recent two fixtures against Cardiff. In those games, Onomah took five shots with two of them hitting the target - including a goal in the first leg. He’s 6/4 to land one or more target here, which looks a nice price to help bolster the odds up in this Same Game Multi.
Moving onto the cards and with Martin Atkinson in charge I think we should see plenty. He’s averaged over three yellow cards per game this season and the first player I’m backing is Fulham’s Cyrus Christie. The Irishman has been cautioned six times this season in the league, with only Dennis Odoi and Aleksandar Mitrovic having more for the Lilywhites. He was booked against Cardiff at Craven Cottage last week and hoping he can follow up again in this one.
Rounding this longshot off is Christian Norgaard to be carded. The Dane has been booked more times this season than any other player at Brentford. He’s hit double figures for the season and I’m actually surprised to see him priced at 11/4 with Betfair to pick up his eleventh of the campaign.
Putting those four elements together gives us an attractive looking 70/1 shot, which hopefully should go a lot closer than the 1.4% chance the odds imply. As always, enjoy the game, and please remember to always gamble responsibly.
