Blackburn vs. QPR Predictions: Rangers to edge a low scoring affair

This weekend's Championship action commences at Ewood Park as Blackburn host fellow playoff hopefuls QPR at 12:30 live on Sky.

Only two points and a place separate Rovers from the R’s in third place and despite their inferior position in proceedings, the hosts are the clear favourites here. At odds of 5/2, it is the visitors that represent the value though as they have won 52% of their games when priced accordingly.

Tony Mowbray’s men have struggled in front of goal recently scoring just two goals in their last nine league fixtures. This barren spell looks set to continue as well with star striker Ben Brereton Diaz sidelined for a month. 

As for the visitors, centre back Rob Dickie is back available and will replace the suspended Dion Sanderson. Elsewhere, Charlie Austin should return to lead the line after not featuring at all in QPR’s midweek game. 

The hosts' woes in front of goal continued at Bramall Lane on Wednesday as their barren spell extended to 450 minutes. John Egan tried his best to help Mowbray’s side break their duck as the Blades defender blatantly handled a Khadra shot. The ex-BVB youngster stepped up but Wes Fodderingham was equal to his spot kick. 

Ultimately, it means that Rovers have gone five games without seeing their opponents net bulge, the underlying data suggests that they have been very unfortunate though. Over that five game period, they have amassed an xG of 5.6- that is an xG per game of 1.12- yet somehow, they have failed to score.

Usually, such clear offensive underperformance would deter me from opposing goals. However, until Sheffield United went down to ten men, Rovers really struggled to carve out any chances. Up until Charlie Goode received his marching orders, Lewis Travis’ shot from range and a Scott Wharton header from a set piece were the only Rovers attempts on target. 

They are lacking creativity and this looks set to continue with their Chilian talisman sidelined with an ankle injury. It is a bit of a crass way of looking at it, but Diaz’s 20 league goals have directly impacted the results of six games this campaign, as he has won them 14 points. 

With BBD in the starting XI, Blackburn have averaged 1.8 points and 1.6 goals per game, in the five games without him their PpG drops to one and the GpG average drops to 0.6. 

Therefore, given the magnitude of the fixture and the implications it will have on the top of the division, I am happy to oppose goals here. 

Sticking along similar lines, I am also willing to tout that QPR will edge a game of low margins. 

Despite being a man light for 50 minutes on Wednesday vs Blackpool, QPR managed to snatch a late winner and you cannot underestimate the importance of the momentum those three points will bring. 

Prior to that fixture, Warburton’s side had only taken two points from a possible 12 and failed to score in half of those games. 

Following their most recent result, they will head North brimming with confidence. 

Interestingly, 56% of QPR’s 16 wins this campaign have come to nil, that means that this bet has clicked in over a quarter of league games. In stark contrast, Blackburn have failed to score in each of their last six defeats, which includes the reverse fixture.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.