Belgium vs. Wales Betting Tips: Three varied price plays for Nations League meeting

Belgium host Wales on Thursday at 19:45 in Brussels in Nations League A Group 4, and only three points will suffice if the Red Devils are going to stand any chance of reaching the Finals.

Roberto Martinez’s side sit on seven points, three points behind leaders Netherlands having beaten Poland twice and draw in the reverse of this fixture in Cardiff.

Given the quality of their squad, complete with a clean bill of health, it is clear to see why the hosts are heavy favourites here, as short as 3/10 with some bookmakers. Michy Batshuayi should spearhead their attack, flanked by the formidable Kevin De Bruyne and a revitalised Eden Hazard.

Wales will be without two key men with Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen absent. Robert Page’s side have lost all of their other group games and will need to secure all three points here if they are going to stand any chance of avoiding relegation to League B at the expense of Poland.

Axel Witsel’s attacking exploits differ greatly depending on whether he is representing his club or country. 

Currently plying his trade in the Spanish La Liga with Atletico Madrid, Witsel is yet to miss a domestic minute this campaign but has only registered one shot. Contrast this with his shooting form for his nation, 12 shots in 16 games since the start of last year, and there is a blatantly obvious gulf in attacking output. 

The reasons may be down to playing a slightly different role for the Red Devils, one where Roberto Martinez grants him more attacking freedom, however, I think it is more down to the difference in game dynamic that Witsel will encounter when playing for his country compared to Atleti. 

Belgium are currently ranked number two in the world, according to FIFA, meaning they will dominate proceedings in most fixtures as lesser nations deploy a low block and simply challenge them to break it down, and these are circumstances that yield high shot counts for them. 

Since the start of 2021, Witsel has had an attempt hit the target in 43% of his games. Interestingly though, he has not hit one in any of his five appearances against sides ranked within the top ten, in games against Denmark, France, Portugal or Italy. 

All those efforts came against nations ranked 19th or below as he hit the target in two thirds of his nine apps against Kazakhstan, Scotland, Russia, Finland, Estonia and Thursday’s opponents Wales. 

Based on his total career averages, the prices available for Witsel to register an SoT are not worth considering. Based on his shot averages for Belgium they have potential, but based on his averages for Belgium vs lesser nations and the 7/4 certainly represents value.

Keen for game time ahead of the Qatar World Cup, Ethan Ampadu joined Serie A’s Spezia with Wales boss Robert Page warning him he may risk his selection for the squad if he stays at Chelsea. 

The versatile player is only two games into his loan spell, and is yet to pick up a card, which is surprising by his cynical standards. 

Domestically, he has generated a staggering cards per 90 average of 0.37, making anything over 5/2 backable here. For the Dragons, despite only making 36 appearances, he has accumulated nine yellows and one red card so the 10/3 available with Bet365 for him to add another to his collection is certainly worth a punt.

If you fancy something a bit chunkier, or are just greedy like me, you can combine these two selections via Bet365’s bet builder at a shade under 11/1.

Best of luck if you are backing any of these selections and please remember to gamble responsibly.