Bayern Munich vs. Villarreal Predictions: Sane to find the net in Germany

The biggest shock of last week’s Champions League quarter-final first legs came from the Estadio de la Cerámica, as La Liga side Villarreal shocked 2020 winners Bayern Munich as Arnaut Danjuma’s early goal was enough to give the Spanish outfit a 1-0 aggregate lead.

Now they travel to the Allianz Arena to defend that advantage against a Bayern side that will be baying for blood in hopes they can book themselves a place in the semi-finals.

The Bavarians managed 22 shots - 17 after half-time - but couldn’t find a breakthrough with the usually reliable Robert Lewandowski missing the only big chance they created.

It was their first loss in the Champions League since March 2019, ending a run that had spanned 29 matches against 13 different opponents.

They’ve been a very different animal on home turf though, and over the last few years have had no problem finding the two goals they require tonight.

Die Roten have found the net at least twice in 13 consecutive home Champions League games, last failing to do so against Liverpool in 2019, and have really upped the ante this season.

In their four home games this term they’ve scored an almost mind-boggling TWENTY times, more than 27 of the other 31 sides have scored in total during the competition.

Leading the way with two hat-tricks and a brace in their four home games is the aforementioned Robert Lewandowski, whose 12 goals also tops all players and 20 of the teams in the competition.

Villarreal will certainly have their work cut out to deal with him and Julian Nagelsmann’s all-out attacking style and their away form leaves a lot to be desired.

The Yellow Submarine have suffered defeat in five of their away games on the road in 2022, including to Segunda División side Sporting Gijon in the Copa Del Rey and relegation-battling outfits Levante (19th) Cadiz (18th), and Elche (15th).

They’ve shown they’re capable of pulling results out of the bag in Europe though - scoring important victories at Serie A sides Juventus and Atalanta already this year.

A 3-0 win in Turin against a Juventus side that hadn’t lost at home in Europe in 18 months was a seriously impressive result, and only served to enhance Unai Emery’s reputation in continental competition.

The Spaniard just gets it and European competition is his bread and butter.

He guided them to a Europa League triumph last season, marking his fourth trophy in his fifth final for three different clubs.

Those achievements could be dwarfed by a result here though, with only three sides having beaten Bayern at the Allianz Arena since December 2013.

Not that they need a win though, with a draw enough to secure safe passage to a first Champions League semi-final since 2006.

One of Bayern’s mainstays when it comes to shots is former Manchester City winger Leroy Sané, who ranks 2nd only to Robert Lewandowski.

The German has proven a constant threat off the wings and has registered at least one shot on target in all nine of their Champions League games - including six in their four home matches.

With 30 shots in total (and 14 on target) in Europe this season, Sané has been a real cause for concern off of Bayern’s left-wing and should cause Juan Foyth all sorts of problems.

He should have done enough in his 28-minute cameo last week - registering three shots and one on target - to oust Serge Gnabry for the start.

Sané has been in electric form in Europe too, bagging six and contributing six assists in just eight starts.

He has been more prolific in the Champions League than he has domestically too, and by some way too.

Since the beginning of the 2018/19 season Sané has bagged 13 goals in 25 games (0.52 per game) in the Champions League, compared to 23 goals in 91 games (0.25 per game) in his domestic leagues.

Including assists, he’s actually involved in 0.96 goals per game across the continent compared to 0.57 per game domestically.

It’s clear that he raises his game for Europe’s premier competition and never has that been more evident than this season.

He’s scored in each of his four home starts in the format, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him extend his run here.

2022 P/L: +5.81pts