Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction, Preview & Lineups: Aston Villa tipped to Win in 14/1 double
Aston Villa face Newcastle at Villa Park on Saturday in a key Premier League clash in the race for Champions League qualification.
The clash will be shown live on Sky Sports Main Event, Sky Sports Premier League and Sky Sports Ultra HDR on Saturday, April 19th at 5:30pm.
Oli Nixon has previewed the game and provided his best bets, including a 14/1 double.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Prediction
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Preview
After going down valiantly to PSG in the Champions League midweek, Aston Villa’s attention turns to securing qualification for the next edition of the competition they’ve enjoyed so much this season. If they’re to do so, they need to overhaul two of the sides above them in the table, one of which is their opponents here in Newcastle. The Magpies have found their groove in recent weeks, with their historic EFL Cup victory the catalyst for their top-four charge.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Betting Tips
In a game with so much on the line between two of the four most fouled sides in the Premier League, it makes sense to prioritise the free kick market. When you consider that the last four meetings between these sides have produced free kick totals of 33, 32, 32 and 34, it makes it even more appealing. This bet would also have landed in all four of those head-to-heads where Villa have averaged 17.5 free kicks and Newcastle 15.25.
In Premier League home games this season, Unai Emery’s men have averaged 15.06 free kicks, having at least 13 in 11 of their 16 matches as hosts. Many of these free kicks come from offside where their opponents are caught 2.38 times per game, but being the most fouled side in the division also plays its part. Their opponents have only failed to have at least 11 free kicks on two occasions at home, and so they’re consistently giving away fouls and offsides themselves.
For Newcastle, their away games see them taking 13.38 free kicks on average and they’ve had at least 11 in 14 of their 16 games on the road. When travelling to sides in the top six, they’re giving away plenty of free kicks with Man City having 16 and Liverpool 17 and this game should be no different with Villa’s record for drawing fouls and offsides.
With Newcastle sitting in the top four coming into this game, the onus is on Aston Villa to attack and get a result. The hosts have also had an extra day's rest despite the exertion of their game against PSG, and so should have fresher legs too. If the Villans are to make it into the top five, their home form will be crucial as they’re unbeaten at Villa Park since October in all competitions and have won their last five in a row. With trips to Man City and Bournemouth still to come and the distraction of an FA Cup semi-final, this game is a must-win if they want to mix it with Europe’s elite again next season.
If Villa can get ahead, they’re likely to attempt to run down the clock at every opportunity and Emiliano Martinez is perhaps the best goalkeeper in the world when it comes to these shenanigans. The Argentinian has 19 cards to his name across his last four seasons at Villa, with two of those coming in their last three Premier League games, and so is adept at wasting time. Referee Jarred Gillett has given the eighth most cards of any referee in the top division and has also booked two goalkeepers this season, so he will be on top of Martinez as soon as he starts to take his time.
Aston Villa vs Newcastle Lineups
The lineups for Aston Villa vs Newcastle will be displayed below approximately one hour before kick-off.
| # | Starting XI | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | Damián Emiliano Martínez Romero | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | Ian Ethan Maatsen | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Tyrone Deon Mings | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Matthew Stuart Cash | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | Youri Marion Tielemans | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 44 | Boubacar Bernard Kamara | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | John McGinn | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Marco Asensio Willemsen | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | Morgan Elliot Rogers | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Oliver George Arthur Watkins | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Substitutes | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Ross Barkley | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | Lucas Digne | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Axel Wilson Arthur Disasi Mhakinis Belho | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Andrés García Robledo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Donyell Malen | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Amadou Ba Zeund Georges Mvom Onana | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | Robin Patrick Olsen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 41 | Jacob Matthew Ramsey | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Marcus Rashford | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Starting XI | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Nicholas David Pope | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | Valentino Francisco Livramento | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 33 | Daniel Johnson Burn | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | Fabian Lukas Schär | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | Kieran John Trippier | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Joelinton Cássio Apolinário de Lira | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 8 | Sandro Tonali | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 39 | Bruno Guimarães Rodriguez Moura | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 11 | Harvey Lewis Barnes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Alexander Isak | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Jacob Kai Murphy | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| # | Substitutes | Fouls | Goals | Shots | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Dúbravka | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 | Anthony Michael Gordon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Emil Henry Kristoffer Krafth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Sean David Longstaff | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 67 | Lewis Miley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | William Idamudia Daugaard Osula | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 | Matthew Robert Targett | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | Joseph George Willock | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Callum Eddie Graham Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle Odds
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