Aston Villa vs Man City Prediction, Odds and Betting Tips: Get 13/2 on Villa to Win

Man City visit Aston Vila in the Premier League kick-off on Saturday, live on TNT Sports 1 at 12:30pm.

Tom Winch has previewed the match and supplied his best bets.

Aston Villa and Manchester City suffered defeats in their previous Premier League matches. Unai Emery’s men were leading at the City Ground with minutes remaining. Villa left without a share of the spoils. Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City’s match in the Manchester Derby was almost identical. Two Manchester United goals in as many minutes completely turned the game on its head. The visitors have won once in 11 matches across all competitions.

The home side boasts a 4-3-1 (WDL) record at Villa Park. Emery’s side have lost four Premier League games in 27 across the last two campaigns. They're a force at home. Arsenal won here in August, perhaps fortunately so. Ollie Watkins failed to convert two big chances that afternoon.

Backing City in any aspect is a tough ask right now. They can't be trusted in the slightest. Pep’s men have managed three clean sheets all season and have shipped multiple goals in six of their previous seven. Bournemouth, Brighton, Spurs, Liverpool and Manchester United have won the xG battle against the Citizens. Both Forest and Palace created 1.04 and 1.34xG, respectively.

I'm confident that Villa will score. Villa boasts the 8th-best xG figure at home in the division. They've scored in six of eight matches at Villa Park. The home side have created 1.2xG or greater in all but one encounter. City have conceded in seven consecutive away days. Only Wolves and Newcastle have failed to breach the 1.0xG mark. They're a team with zero confidence.

Jhon Duran is some player. He's young and fearless. The Colombian is likely to start on Saturday afternoon. The forward has started twice this season, coming in back-to-back matches where he scored in each. I'm backing Duran in the shot-on-target market. An impressive 12 of Duran’s 26 shots have hit the target. That's an average of 2.25 per 90. City will be wary of his ability, but at this current moment, I'm not sure they'll be able to stop him.

Villa ranks as the second best team at home according to the numbers. Emery’s men boast a +1.17xGD/90. They’ve proven to be excellent defensively. Their xGA figure reads 5.6. That's not bad over eight Premier League matches.

Manchester City’s xGD/90 reads -0.11 away from home. Their performances and results have been mind-blowing at times. Something isn't right. Villa will know that earning three points is well within their reach. I'm not sure why City are priced around even money to win this encounter.

Villa looks like the play here. Their price is appealing. Combining Jhon Duran to get on the scoresheet alongside a home win is a big price. The numbers are well in our favour.

Aston Villa vs Man City Lineups

The starting lineups for Aston Villa vs Man City will be displayed in the graphic below once the team news has been announced.